Chisholm – Australia 2019

LIB 2.9%

Incumbent MP
Julia Banks, since 2016.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Chisholm covers most of the western half of Monash council area and the western half of Whitehorse council area, along with a small part of Kingston council area. Suburbs include Burwood, Burwood East, Oakleigh, Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Box Hill and Mont Albert.

Redistribution
Chisholm shifted north, losing Chadstone, Oakleigh, Clayton and Huntingdale to Hotham, and also losing Mont Albert on its north-western corner to Kooyong. Chisholm then gained Blackburn, Blackburn North and part of Nunawading on its north-eastern corner from Deakin. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 1.2% to 2.9%.

History
Chisholm was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. For the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the seat was relatively safe for the Liberal Party. Boundary changes saw the seat become a marginal seat in the early 1980s. It became stronger for Labor in the 2000s but was lost to the Liberal Party in 2016.

The seat was first won in Kent Hughes for the Liberal Party. Hughes was a former Deputy Premier of Victoria who had enlisted in the military at the outbreak of the Second World War, and ended up captured as part of the fall of Singapore and spent four years as a prisoner of war before returning to state politics, and moving to Canberra in 1949.

Hughes was chairman of the organising committee for the Melbourne Olympics in 1956, but after the Olympics was dropped from the ministry, and sat on the backbenches until his death in 1970.

Tony Staley won the 1970 by-election for the Liberal Party. He served as a junior minister in the Fraser government from 1976 until his retirement from politics in 1980. He went on to serve as Federal President of the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party’s Graham Harris held on to Chisholm in 1980, but with a much smaller margin then those won by Hughes or Staley. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Helen Mayer.

Mayer was re-elected in 1984, but lost the seat in 1987 to the Liberal Party’s Michael Wooldridge. Wooldridge quickly became a senior Liberal frontbencher, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1993 to 1994. Wooldridge was appointed Minister for Health upon the election of the Howard government in 1996. Wooldridge moved to the safer seat of Casey in 1998, and retired in 2001.

Chisholm was won in 1998 by the ALP’s Anna Burke, who held the seat for six terms. Anna Burke served as Speaker from 2012 to 2013. Burke retired in 2016, and Liberal candidate Julia Banks was the only Liberal in the country to gain a seat off Labor in winning Chisholm.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Julia Banks is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Chisholm is a marginal seat which Labor would be hoping to regain, after the party did poorly in Victoria in 2016. Banks’ departure from the seat will make it particularly hard for the Liberal Party to hold on.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julia Banks Liberal 39,26545.3+1.247.1
Stefanie Perri Labor 31,16035.9-3.634.7
Josh Fergeus Greens 10,64712.3+2.811.5
Craig MccrackenFamily First2,1372.5+1.42.5
Nyree WalsheAnimal Justice1,7992.1+2.12.1
Melanie VassiliouRise Up Australia1,7122.0+1.21.2
Others0.8
Informal2,4392.7

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julia Banks Liberal 44,43751.2+2.852.9
Stefanie Perri Labor 42,28348.8-2.847.1

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Chisholm have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.1% in the north to 53.5% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in the south to 14% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South10.253.522,84324.0
Central11.851.317,48618.3
North14.051.116,02016.8
Other votes10.455.121,12722.2
Pre-poll12.152.817,82518.7

Election results in Chisholm at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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21 COMMENTS

  1. These boundaries are certainly an improvement in community of interest, compared to the old boundaries. It makes enormous sense to unite Glen Waverley in a Burwood/Mount Waverley seat instead of with Dandenong and Springvale.

    Despite its fairly narrow margin, I’d think that the Liberals could hold on here unless it’s a really strong overall win for Labor. The overlapping state seats all stayed with the Liberals in the narrow losses of 1999 and 2014, falling only in the landslide defeats of 2002 and 2006.

  2. would Anna Burke have held on? probably yes……. 2% redistribution bound to libs and is there a new member add of 1% too

  3. The seat definitely seems more of a “Liberal except in landslides” seat than a marginal seat now, but it’s still very much in play. Julia Banks seems to get quite a lot of negative press for a first term MP.

    Labor figured out how to win back Asian voters in the Bennelong byelection, judging by the swings in those areas. They should be able to take this seat if they target it.

  4. John
    Is that what you got from the Bennelong By- election ?
    Owning six rental properties is the negative press, unless there is more. There are a lot more property barons in the ALP than the LNP. Rocks, & glass houses mate !!!

    Mark Mulcair
    With shifting demographics this looks very similar to how Deakin used to. Do you think it will trend the same way ?

    Melbourne is a very different city, & the Asian voters would be quite different to Sydney’s. I asked L96 (i think ) about this some time ago

  5. mick Quinlivan

    Anna Burke was probably seen as a good MP overall and so prevented the Liberals ever getting a hold of the seat until she retired (that combined with the firefighter union issue flaring up at the most unfortunate time for Vic Labor).

    I don’t think this seat is unwinnable for the ALP, but they needs a strong candidate – that and no repeat of 2016’s circumstances. If Labor is to win the election, this seat should definitely be one they strive to take back.

  6. winediamond

    Of course Labor lost Bennelong, but looking at the booths, Labor well and truly recovered among Chinese and Korean voters, while actually having a swing against them in the more affluent anglo areas. Box Hill switching to solid Labor would win this seat for Labor.

    The controversy is the mix of having 5 houses while claiming she could easily live on Newstart. I will grant however that plenty of Labor MPs have that kind of property portfolio, and Macklin made the same claims about Newstart.

    Labor will not be able to make a real challenge on the Newstart issue with their weak “review” policy. However the Greens (surprisingly strong in this seat), GetUp, Unions and other raise the rate campaigners will.

    Predicting an ALP gain but it will be a 1 term wonder.

  7. WD, I think a good equivalent would be Bennelong. It’s becoming more affluent and probably more naturally Liberal socio-demographically, but with a significant number of middle class Asian migrants.

    So it will depend on the ability of the Liberals to appeal to that constituency. They’ve seemed to do better at this at state level in recent times.

  8. PJ

    I think she’s a good fit considering the Asian demographic of the electorate – a better fit compared to Julia Banks in any case (though not sure if Banks is defending this seat). Assuming no gaffes in the Labor campaign, I think she could swing Mt Waverley, Glen Waverley (excluding the Mount View booth) and the rest of the blue booths in Box Hill.

  9. Interested
    Yeah maybe. It could just be a ploy of “it wasn’t me”. Let’s see if Jules “reconsiders” her position.

  10. Turnbull country. Apparently Labor campaign last time had many internal problems and first mistake was to pass over Yang as candidate.

  11. Now with Banks not recontesting, the Libs are gonna have an extremely hard time trying to hold this, especially with the potential for a big swing in Victoria.

    LAB gain.

  12. Chisholm is an interesting marginal seat in that it tends to stick with sitting MP’s, it stayed with Michael Wooldridge during the Howard government years, then when he retied the seat flipped to Anna Burke, then on her retirement at the last election, it flipped to Julia Banks, so on the news of Julia Banks quitting and while the boundaries have improved for the Liberal Party, the ALP are now a good chance to gain here.

  13. Wooldridge didn’t retire. He fled to Casey because he would have lost Chisholm.

    The retirement of Banks is a real surprise. For the second straight election Chisholm is an open seat. In what had looked like a probable Liberal retain, this seat should once again be very competitive.

  14. Banks is jumping before she’s pushed. Despite being very marginal, Turnbull may have been able to retain this one, but Morrison has no chance.

    ALP Gain

  15. After the events of last week & the announcement of Banks not re-contesting…. I’d be very surprised if this won’t be a Labor gain. The selection of Jennifer Yang as the Labor candidate would no doubt make Liberal attempts at retaining this seat all the more challenging

  16. In the areas of Chisholm added by the redistribution, Julia Banks will not have developed much name recognition yet. So far only piece of information in my letter box. It will be hard for the Libs to hold without a sitting MP. For a fighting chance, the Libs might need a candidate with an already high profile – a woman would probably help.

  17. Thing is, Is if Burke decided to have ran in 2016 she would have still been MP today, Just shows How Incumbency and being a Popular local MP helps, If she decides to run here again it would be a Safe labour gain, But even without her they will probably win it for 1 term and it returns to the Libs in ’22

  18. Liberal preselection for the seat is apparently this Thursday with a frontrunner in a Gladys Liu. Assuming she wins preselection, it’s going to be very interesting having both major party’s candidates for the seat be ethnic Chinese. And given that, even if Jennifer Yang gets up for Labor in 2019, I don’t think that’ll be the end of Gladys vying for the seat.

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