Miranda by-election, 2013

This profile was written in advance of the by-election. Click here to view election-night results.

October 19, 2013

Cause of by-election
Graham Annesley, Liberal member for Miranda since 2011 and Minister for Sport and Recreation in the first O’Farrell ministry, resigned in August 2013 to take up the position of Chief Executive Officer of the Gold Coast Titans NRL team.

Read the profile for the seat of Miranda at the 2011 state election.

Margin – LIB 21.0%

Geography
Southern Sydney. Miranda covers suburbs in Sutherland Shire, including Miranda, Gymea, Kirrawee, Sylvania and Como.

Boundaries of the electorate of Miranda at the 2013 by-election (in white) and boundaries for the 2015 election (red line).

Boundaries of the electorate of Miranda at the 2013 by-election (in white) and boundaries for the 2015 election (red line).

Redistribution
Miranda has been significantly redrawn for the 2015 election, switching from a north-south axis to an east-west axis. The seat expands to the east to gain Sylvania Waters and Taren Point and to the west to gain Alfords Point and Illawong, losing Gymea Bay, Grays Point and other southern parts of the electorate. This is expected to increase the Liberal margin from 21% to 23%.

These redistributed boundaries will not take affect at this by-election, which will be fought on the old boundaries.

History
Miranda was first created for the 1971 election. It has been a key marginal seat, and has been won by the party that won government at all but three elections.

The seat was first won in 1971 by the Liberal Party’s Tim Walker. Walker was a former newsagent who had won the seat of Sutherland in 1968. Sutherland was abolished in 1968 and Walker moved to the new seat of Miranda.

Walker was defeated in 1978 by the ALP’s Bill Robb. The 1978 election was a landslide for Labor Premier Neville Wran, who had won power narrowly in 1976. Robb was re-elected in 1981, but in 1984 was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Ron Phillips.

The Liberal Party regained power in 1988, and Phillips served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1991 to 1995. He served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party after the party lost power in 1995 until he lost his seat in 1999.

The ALP’s Barry Collier defeated Phillips in 1999, and he won re-election in 2003 and 2007.

At the 2011 election, Graham Annesley won the seat for the Liberal Party after coming close in 2007. Miranda saw a 21.8% swing to the Liberal Party: only 14 other electorates saw bigger swings to the Coalition.

Candidates
The Liberal Party is running Brett Thomas, a former Sutherland Shire councillor and candidate for Menai in 1999 and 2003. The ALP’s Barry Collier held the seat for three terms from 1999 until his retirement in 2011.

  • Murray Scott (Greens)
  • Lisa Walter (Independent)
  • Barry Collier (Labor)
  • George Capsis (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Brett Thomas (Liberal)
  • John Brett (Independent)

Assessment
The Liberal Party should comfortably retain Miranda. The seat was strongly Liberal prior to the 1999 state election, and a 21% margin should allow them to win comfortably.

The ALP suffered extreme swings well over 20% in many booths at the 2011 state election. The main reason to watch this by-election is to see if the ALP has managed to achieve any recovery off its dismal 2011 result.

2011 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Graham Annesley LIB 26,662 60.7 +18.3
Therese Cook ALP 9,770 22.3 -20.5
Naomi Waizer GRN 3,853 8.8 +2.1
John Brett IND 2,074 4.7 +3.1
Ern Hemmings CDP 1,549 1.6 -0.4

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Graham Annesley LIB 28,395 71.0 +21.8
Therese Cook ALP 11,598 29.0 -21.8
Polling booths in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election. Como in blue, Gymea in orange, Kirrawee in green, Sylvania in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Polling booths in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election. Como in blue, Gymea in orange, Kirrawee in green, Sylvania in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Miranda have been divided into four areas: Como in the northwest of the seat, Sylvania in the northeast, Gymea in the southeast and Kirrawee in the southwest.

This booth breakdown is similar to that in the pre-election guide produced in 2011.

In 2007, the ALP had won slim majorities in Gymea, Como and Kirrawee, with the Liberal Party winning in Sylvania.

The 2011 election produced a very different result. The Liberal Party won huge majorities in all four areas, ranging from 68.3% in Como to 74% in Sylvania.

The swing to the Liberal Party ranged from 20% in Sylvania and Como to 23.7% in Gymea.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % LIB swing % Total votes % of votes
Gymea 8.94 70.70 23.65 13,000 29.61
Sylvania 7.29 73.95 20.04 9,518 21.68
Como 12.03 68.33 20.19 5,588 12.73
Kirrawee 8.24 69.03 21.66 5,375 12.24
Other votes 8.46 71.07 21.69 10,427 23.75
Two-party-preferred votes in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Miranda at the 2011 NSW state election.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.