Miranda – NSW 2011

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Barry Collier, since 1999.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Miranda covers suburbs in Sutherland Shire, including Miranda, Gymea, Kirrawee, Sylvania and Como.

History
Miranda was first created for the 1971 election. It has been a key marginal seat, and has been won by the party that won government at all but three elections.

The seat was first won in 1971 by the Liberal Party’s Tim Walker. Walker was a former newsagent who had won the seat of Sutherland in 1968. Sutherland was abolished in 1968 and Walker moved to the new seat of Miranda.

Walker was defeated in 1978 by the ALP’s Bill Robb. The 1978 election was a landslide for Labor Premier Neville Wran, who had won power narrowly in 1976. Robb was re-elected in 1981, but in 1984 was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Ron Phillips.

The Liberal Party regained power in 1988, and Phillips served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1991 to 1995. He served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party after the party lost power in 1995 until he lost his seat in 1999.

The ALP’s Barry Collier defeated Phillips in 1999, and he won re-election in 2003 and 2007.

Candidates

Political situation
Miranda is the ALP’s most marginal seat in New South Wales. With the ALP facing the prospect of deep losses at the state election, it will be very hard to hold on in Miranda. With the sitting MP retiring, and no Labor candidate yet to emerge, it seems the ALP may have already written off this seat.

2007 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Barry CollierALP18,16042.8-8.4
Graham AnnesleyLIB17,99342.4+6.1
Julie SimpsonGRN2,8176.6+0.2
Albert YoungCDP1,5313.6+3.2
Samantha FeinbierAAFI9242.2+0.5
John BrettIND6921.6+1.6
Rob BunttDEM3380.8+0.8

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Barry CollierALP20,09750.8-8.3
Graham AnnesleyLIB19,49449.2+8.3

Booth breakdown
Booths in Miranda have been divided into four areas: Como in the northwest of the seat, Sylvania in the northeast, Gymea in the southeast and Kirrawee in the southwest.

The ALP won a slim majority of around 2% in Gymea, Como and Kirrawee, but the Liberal Party won a majority of almost 4% in the Sylvania area.

 

Polling booths in Miranda at the 2007 state election. Como in orange, Sylvania in green, Gymea in yellow, Kirrawee in blue.
Voter groupGRN %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Gymea7.252.913,11630.9
Sylvania5.846.19,73322.9
Como7.951.95,92414.0
Kirrawee5.552.65,16112.2
Other votes6.650.68,52120.1
Two-party-preferred votes in Miranda at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Miranda at the 2007 state election.

17 COMMENTS

  1. With one month to go until election day, I’m going to make seat-by-seat predictions now, then revise my predictions the day before the election.

    Here we go:

    My prediction – Miranda is normally a Liberal seat, so I’d say Liberal gain, 20% swing.

  2. dovif – certainly a waste of time for the ALP anywhere in the Sutherland shire. Better chances in the St George and Bankstown (East Hills) districts for the ALP. The fight is certainly on in East Hills (not that I live there). I have never seen the fight like this before in that seat (its like Bennelong now).

  3. It has been curious that ALP has held this seat for such a period given the prevailing demographics. Maybe Collier has done something right to have survived 3 terms in a seat that should really only be a “highwater mark”.

    Will be interesting to see how long Annesley can survive. IF he were the stellar candidate some are proclaiming, he really should have won last time in a seat like this. He certainly provides a “name” but once elected, it may be interesting to see how long before the gratitude wears out with the Liberal party in this area.

  4. Precisely, it really should be a “highwater mark” win for ALP. Having said that, I do suspect it’s boundaries were made slightly more friendly pre 99 with the abolition of Sutherland.

  5. this seat is unusual in that Labor wins this only in good times. the elections of 1999 2003 & 2007 were very similar. @ a federal level this is safe non labor. But since 1978 Labor has won this seat 5 times.
    Barry Collier I suspect was a very good local mp with a large personal vote

  6. They also won it in 1978 and 1981, elections which they won even more shocking seats like Manly, Wakehurst, Cronulla, etc.

    Collier must’ve been an excellent local MP – they got a 6% swing here in 2003 despite their vote nearing a ceiling here in 1999. They even held on in 2007 despite this usually being a Liberal seat.

  7. Collier was a good mp. Quite annoyed when i was redistributed into cronulla, he didn’t come to school presentation nights anymore. And been i drive through miranda every day and cronulla much less, I can say there are pictures of ALP candidate Therese Cook everywhere. Nothing for liberals at all, they obviously have it in the bag, suprised alp bother – then again i think they have pics of their candidate in cronulla which is very safe liberal.

  8. From what I’ve seen of him, the Liberal candidate, Graham Annesley is a total dud! The Libs have just taken this seat for granted- just like they did when they held it before. I’m not voting Liberal.

  9. I stumbled across this because I needed to know who the Greens’ candidate is. I didn’t know until this minute! I am a lifelong Labor voter who cannot vote for them this time but sadly I feel I will have to vote for the Greens tomorrow as I will not vote for the Liberals. Comments re election signage are correct – none at all for Annesley; a lot for Cook. But I saw Cook on Como Station a while back. I was a perfect target – she could have asked me my views, etc and I would have told her in no uncertain terms. I liked Collier but he also stopped attending presentation nights at my daughter’s school too. I have had three how to vote mailouts from Annesley. Excessive surely??

  10. As a current constituent of the seat I can testify to the fact that Barry Collier was an excellent and engaged local member for the seat of Miranda for many years allowing him to defy the odds and underlying demographics of the electorate. It is my personal obersvation that he regularly received a large amount of support from non-traditional Labor voters as well as the core Labor vote due to his sheer hard work.

    I’d have to agree with the observations above that Graham Annesley has been a relative no-show this time round, most likely the result of Liberal resources being directed to other more challenging seats in Sydney as the Liberals consider this one ‘in the bag’. I just pray that Annesely doesn’t fade away into the background of the new Liberal government and they begin to take this seat for granted once again.

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