Bundamba by-election scheduled for March 28

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Another election in Queensland has been scheduled for the final weekend in March, with a second state by-election announced for that date.

March 28 is already the election date for council elections across Queensland, including the Brisbane City megacouncil. It was also announced as the election date for the by-election for the marginal LNP seat of Currumbin at the southern end of the Gold Coast after Jann Stuckey announced her retirement last month.

The sudden retirement of longstanding Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller in her Ipswich-area electorate of Bundamba last Thursday triggered a quick scheduling of her by-election to be held on the same date.

This is a tight timeframe – nominations closed in Currumbin almost two weeks ago, yet the two by-elections will be held on the same date.

I have now published my guide to Bundamba.

The seat is held by Labor by a margin of over 20%, and it seems most likely they will win again. But this is a good area for One Nation, who declined to run here in 2017. They are running this time and could do quite well. I wouldn’t rule out an upset.

In other news I’ve also updated my Currumbin guide with the list of the four candidates running in that by-election.

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17 COMMENTS

  1. Lance McCallum a former ETU official has been chosen as the Labor canidate for Bundamba. The LNP have chosen retired army serviceman Robert SHEARMAN who was also the LNP’s canidate for Blair in the federal election in 2019 according to the Queensland Times.

    Its not known if the LNP will direct prefernces to One Nation ahead of Labor in this seat which may be vital to One Nation if they are going to be any chance of winning the seat.

    My prediction the final two party preferred vote will be between Labor and One Nation. Labor will likely retain the seat but with a reduced margin.

  2. I would be surprised if the LNP formally direct preferences to ON.

    They will be heavily disadvantaged in October if there is credibility in a “vote LNP and get Pauline” line from Labor.

    They could run an open ticket, or they could have run no candidate if they wanted to force Labor to spend more holding this seat.

  3. Bennee
    HNY. I agree completely. What do the LNP gain by running ?. I’M not sure about the disadvantage though. I believe that is a fight worth having, & an opportunity to have it sooner than later !!. Then again i’m bold, & audacious, & we all know the LNP ARE NOT !!. That in itself is their biggest problem. Like most politicians they believe their own BS. That the others are SO BAD that everyone should realise that & vote accordingly !!. EVERYONE needs to do a lot better, than this childish hubris.

    What especially staggers me, is how little these people/politicians, understand themselves, let alone others. Unbelievably they don’t seem to comprehend any advantage in growing, & learning, to more deeply understand themselves, let alone us, the people they are sworn to serve.

    The contrast to business could not be more stark. Even in the 90s we were D.I.S.C. testing ALL our staff, & even job applicants. Most people even applying for a job today, will do Meyers Briggs, or D.I.S.C. Testing, or better yet Enneagram training. Would business invest the time usually managerial (ie worth $100s + an hour) resources, & money, if this practice were ineffective ?? Do our politicians think they are so far above us, that they are beyond this level of (personal) challenge, or any kind of scrutiny, & accountability ? Apparently !?.

    PS thanks for motivating me to get this down. It’s not the first time you have done me this service.
    cheers WD

  4. Greens have selected union organiser Danille Mutton. Just like the Currumbin bye-election there is no independent canidates running and it will be Labor, LNP, One Nation, and the Greens on the ballot. I’m wondering if the council elections have had an impact with the bye-election held on the same day and that with any potential canidate interested in running as an independent will be contesting the council elections instead. Both Gold Coast and Ipswich have independent councils that don’t have official politcal party councillors making it more appealing for an independent to contest there.

    I’d would have assumed that the LNP not contesting would have given the non-Labor vote to solidify behind One Nation. The flip side of the coin there may be moderate LNP voters who are prepared to prefernce One Nation but couldn’t bring themselves to actually vote for One Nation. Although I think there are less of those voters in the regions then there are in the urban areas.

    Whatever scenario I still think Labor will retain.

  5. LNP not running would be an admission that Frecklington is just not cutting through. They only have to get a small swing to scare the ALP into irrational activity.

    Same applies to ALP if they chose not to run in either seat.

    If LNP do not run Hanson will pick upvotes and dollars which will make her run in October easier.

  6. “LNP not running would be an admission that Frecklington is just not cutting through. They only have to get a small swing to scare the ALP into irrational activity.
    Same applies to ALP if they chose not to run in either seat.”

    @Andrew Jackson

    I don’t know if that is true. Labor didn’t run a candidate in Toowoomba South by-election in 2016 because it’s a very safe LNP seat and they thought it would be harder for the LNP to retain it and would have to throw more resources if it was a head to head match up with the former Toowoomba mayor running as an independent Di Thorley. I don’t think Labor not running a candidate was an admission Palaszczuk ‘was not cutting through’.

    Labor not standing a candidate in either Currumbin and Bundamba would be crazy as they are both winnable. Obviously different variations on how winnable as Bundamba their hot favorites while Currumbin they have an outside chance. LNP are running in Currumbin because it’s winnable and they obviously want to retain it. But LNP are no chance in Bundamba, and as Bernie stated it would make strategic sense not to contest it as they are splintering the conservative vote with One Nation.

    Also Labor will have swing against it in Bundamba, as a local long term MP has quit and had a fall out with the party. A small swing to the LNP will not put ‘the ALP into irrational activity’. As by-elections give the public a chance to have a protest vote knowing that they will be able to vote again at the next state election where the stakes are much higher. If the ALP lose the seat or narrowly avert losing the seat then maybe they would be worried but it’s likely the party hardheads know the party will take a hit to its vote and not to read too much into it.

  7. @Andrew Jackson

    “If LNP do not run Hanson will pick upvotes and dollars which will make her run in October easier.”

    This is a point I’d had rolling around in the back of my brain. How is public funding calculated for by-elections? Is it just straight up the same as a general election? Is it in proportion to the length of the remaining term?

  8. My understanding is that by elections have same formula as general elections.Queensland Electoral Act is no where near as profitable for cash harvesters like PHON as Federal elections. Payment requires proof of expenditure.
    In to what bank account will
    party Agent pay money received? I will lay odds that in three of the four candidates no individual will have sole control of money but in the other case one individual will have totalitariN control. Should electoral funding go to incorporated non profit organisations only. This will have significant impact on one party although it will force other parties to incorporate.

  9. It was reported in the Australian that the LNP will prefernce One Nation ahead of Labor in both Bundamba and Currumbin in the by-elections. It said Labor insiders expect Labor to retain Bundamba but acknowledge a swing will be against them.

  10. PN
    Are you surprised ?. To be honest the reticence of the LNP in referencing PHON until now, has been staggering. Funnily enough my gut says Labor will only retain Bundamba because the LNP will end up outpolling PHON !! Which is essentially what happened in 2019 fed election.

    This all just adds to Sharon Bell’s profile, & gives her a better chance in the next fed election. If PHON were smart, they would stand Malcolm Roberts IN Blair, & have Bell defect to KAP. This is their last chance, as Blair will have 30000 + voters moved in the next redistribution in 2023.

  11. I think this is a dumb move.

    They could have officially preferenced Labor in Bundamba, and just not actively campaign there. Don’t hand out any HTVs on election day and hope that many of their voters might preference ON anyway.

    In Currumbin their preferences almost certainly won’t be distributed, so officially preferencing Labor would make no difference to the outcome.

  12. HNY Mark
    Ok. What exactly do the LNP lose by Preferencing PHON ?. How long can they avoid making this standard practice ? Do labor suffer preferencing the Greens ?

  13. winediamond

    Whether The Greens and One Nation are equivalent is obviously a subjective decision like all politics, but I think away you’re implying is very silly one.

    The ideological core of the Greens are social democratic policies, the anti-war movement, social liberation movements, and most of all enviro movement. One of their “pillars” is literally non-violence, they are harmless.

    One Nation on the other hand are obviously a white supremacist and anti-science party, you would need to be blind and deaf to not see that. Potentially extremely dangerous, even without big parliamentary numbers them in the mainstream increases harmful racial tension and anti-fact beliefs in the public.

    I think it would be correct for any true centrists in the voting base to punish cooperation with One Nation far more than cooperation to the Greens.

    A good comparison would be Germany. You would surely agree that AfD and Die Grünen are nowhere near the same, and that all the other parties are correct when they say “we could form a coalition with almost anyone to keep the AfD out of power.”

  14. Bennee
    Interesting . I believe both parties have evolved substantially. I see your assessment as being correct, but very much in the past tense.

    The greens have evolved into an extreme left socialist party. Subversion, & civil disruption are favoured, & although violence is officially disavowed, it is unremarked, or even denied, when all too obvious.Links to XR, & GETUP! are endorsed, & their excesses excused. Like all zealots the Greens denigrate, & vilify all others as “evil”. This is in total contrast to centrists, who see others as simply wrong !!. As Richo always says “Everyone always has the right to be wrong !”.

    ON simply represents a marginalised, or under represented nationalism, which ATM is QLD centric. After all that is where they have representation. Whilst Hanson is a polarising figure, her influence, if not appeal is limited, if not contained to QLD. Latham will succeed Hanson, & oversee a redirection to appeal to other australians.

    Would you typify Latham with your description of One Nation ?. Do you see him as a “white supremacist”, or “anti science” ?. Is he promoting “anti fact beliefs” ?

    Sorry i don’t know anything about Germany politically, & i don’t care to find out.
    cheers WD

    PS i voted for Latham, & i’ll continue to.

  15. WD and Benee
    Both Greens and PHON are on extremities of Centre Left and Centre Right respectively.
    ALP and Lib’s closer to Centre with parties like DLP Xenophon and Katter dead centre.
    Coming from this dead centre position in one week last year Ben Raue referred to my VIEWS as Fascist and some commentators on Peter Dutton Support group referred to them as Socialist.
    I view any move by Libs or ALP to place parties on their extremities ahead of each other as unacceptable.
    At last election I was going to hand out HTV for a Katter Candidate
    On Darling Downs but turned around and returned home when I found that availability of HTV favouring Nat over PHON was not available. I will do same today if HTV for Qld Local Govt election favours the PHON Front Group in Moreton Bay Council then it will remain in boxes place in distributed. I told the independent who I am working for that this would be the case.
    A PHON in Parliament pulls LNP in wrong direction and a Green in Parliament pulls ALP in wrong direction.

    ALP in denying they will ever be in Coalition in effect is saying we will support an LNP minority government rather than have to accept loss of total power.

    Moreton Bay Regional Council Mayoral election starting pre polling today is thE dirtiest election campaign I have experienced. Power hungry individuals in retrained by moderating influence of Political Party professional operatives lead to far more cat fights than Party political controlled elections do. Damage to Party brand name ensures that name calling , scratching and eye gouging is covert. No such restraint in Moreton Bay Mayoral contest. Gutter fighting the norm for some of them. Impossible to name them because solicitors letters are distributed like How to Votes.

  16. AJ
    I read your post carefully . Probably i’d agree with a lot of it. impulsively i felt that you misunderstood, or misread my post, but that’s not the case. You have more acumen than that. Perhaps you need to see more of where Latham will take ON ?. I’ll guarantee it won’t be to the extreme right.

    I mean why would that happen ?. What would be gained ? Is Latham the sort of bloke who preaches from someone else’s prayer book !!??. Would you describe him as easily influenced !!?? FFS !!. From my POV Latham has never been less than”opinionated”, some would say “MAD”!!.

    What will you do if PHON forges ever closer links with KAP ? Or SFF, or Lambie for that matter ? Won’t happen !?? It is going to be a long year……!
    cheers WD

    PS Don’t worry about that “FACIST” thing. People have been calling me that since i was a teenager !!!. It’s pretty funny given your obvious devotion to democracy !!. Sort of like some contorted kind of oxymoron, or contradiction in terms !. Don’t think you’ll ever get there old son !!. Me in contrast ? I have come full circle, & sadly no longer believe that democracy, is the most optimal form of govt.

  17. Labor leading 62 – 38 to One Nation on two party preferred in poll published in the Courier Mail. Labor’s primary vote has taken a wack and is down by 16% but on this result I still think Labor would take it. A new member will have time to work the electorate and there should be a correction swing at the next general election to get to levels close to Labor had enjoyed previously.

    “In Bundamba, Labor’s primary vote has dropped almost 16 per cent to 37.6 per cent while One Nation is in second with 21.2 per cent after not contesting the electorate in 2017.

    The LNP (9.7 per cent) were fourth behind the Greens (14.4 per cent).

    More than 17 per cent of voters were undecided however more than a third of them were leaning towards Labor.

    On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads One Nation 62 per cent to 38 per cent, a 10 per cent swing against the Government in its third safest seat.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/palaszczuk-government-on-brink-of-winning-currumbin-byelection/news-story/753bdac5dee808e153f4af8c829d0852

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