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One nation would make the 2PP if they contested. Could be <10% Nat vs ON margin especially with Peter walsh retiring.
One nation can’t win that labor and the greens will make sure of it.
Though I can’t see how ONP even makes the 2pp Tbh there simply isn’t enough right wing vote other then the nats to take from so they would need to probably halve the nats vote. That or push them out altogether. But hey stranger things have happened. Either way they can’t win this unless they push the nats into 3rd place in the 3cp.
This could be a chance for ON as there will be a vacuum with Peter Walsh retiring. Interesting to see that the Nats are having a contested preselection with one candidate being president of the Victorian Farmers Federation. From what I can see most of the Vic Nats MPs are pretty active in their communities so they probably have built up personal votes that would protect from ON. And if it does get hairy – then ALP and Greens preferences – as they will invariably end up behind ON.
@ Redistributed i think Nats are strong in Victoria so with exception of Morwell i dont see if any Nats seats being under threat from ONP.
The following seats are possible ONP pick ups
1. Benembra
2. Ripon
3. Narracan (Less likely)
4. Hastings (one of the best chances)
5. Sunbury (one of the best chances)
6. Yan Yean
7. Melton
8. Eureka
9. Lara (more challenging)
10. Evelyn (less likely)
12. Bass (although will not do well in Clyde or sea change communities)
13. Pakenham
14. Werribee (quite challenging)
15. Sydenham (very chlalenging)