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It was announced this morning that sitting Nationals MP Tim Bull is not running again. One Nation seem to be strong in Gippsland and not having a sitting MP may make this seat a more attractive target. At the federal election, the ON vote was lower in this area than places further west that are in Morwell.
The Nationals should still retain though. The Nationals vote need to drop below 30% for them to lose.
If the Liberals do not contest, the Nationals may lose if their primary vote drops below 30% and One Nation polls above 40%, but I don’t see that happening. I don’t think the Liberals will bother to contest Nationals heartland seats like this one in light of the ONP threat.