North Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

  • Bruce Atkinson (Liberal), since 1992
  • Matthew Bach (Liberal), since 20201
  • Rod Barton (Transport Matters), since 2018
  • Shaun Leane (Labor), since 2006
  • Sonja Terpstra (Labor), since 2018

1Matthew Bach replaced Mary Wooldridge in March 2020 following Wooldridge’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
BayswaterLIB 0.7%CroydonLIB 0.9%Mill ParkALP 24.9%
Box HillALP 2.8%ElthamALP 8.8%RingwoodALP 3.7%
BulleenLIB 5.7%Glen WaverleyLIB 1.5%WarrandyteLIB 3.9%
BundooraALP 16.0%IvanhoeALP 12.7%

North Eastern Metropolitan covers eastern parts of the Melbourne urban area, straddling the Yarra river. Seven seats lie south of the river, with four to the north.

Six out of eleven seats are held by Labor, with five held by the Liberal party.

The region includes seven marginal seats, along with four safer Labor seats.

Redistribution
The Eastern Metropolitan region was shifted to the north and renamed ‘North Eastern Metropolitan.

Forest Hill and Mount Waverley were merged to form Glen Waverley, while Forest Hill was abolished. The region made up the abolition of two seats by shifting north and taking in Bundoora and Mill Park from the Northern Metropolitan region.

There were other changes on various borders, but most were relatively minor.

The redistribution significantly strengthened Labor and weakened the Liberal Party. Labor outpolled the Liberal Party by 0.9% on the 2018 boundaries in Eastern Metropolitan. On the new boundaries, that gap is 5.1%. The position of the Greens was also weakened from 9.0% to 8.5%.

History
The Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The first two elections produced the same result at each election – three Liberals and two Labor. Indeed, the region elected the same five individual MLCs at these two elections.

In 2014, Labor lost its second seat to Greens candidate Samantha Dunn.

In 2018, the Liberal Party lost their third seat and the Greens lost their seat. Labor gained a second seat, and Transport Matters were elected off just 0.6% of the primary vote.

2018 result

2018 electionRedistribution
PartyVotes%SwingQuota%Quota
Labor 154,71637.0+8.32.21838.72.325
Liberal 151,21636.1-9.62.16833.62.018
Greens 37,6509.0-1.50.5408.50.508
Liberal Democrats 17,4524.2+2.80.2503.60.217
Derryn Hinch’s Justice 10,5832.5+2.50.1522.70.16
Animal Justice 10,0312.4+0.70.1442.40.146
Democratic Labour 7,0971.7-0.60.1022.20.132
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 5,2451.3+0.40.0751.40.085
Reason 4,9961.2-0.90.0721.30.079
Voluntary Euthanasia 3,7220.9-0.20.0530.90.055
Sustainable Australia 3,4000.8+0.80.0490.80.047
Aussie Battler 2,2310.5+0.50.0320.80.046
Socialists 1,8870.5+0.50.0270.80.045
Health Australia 2,4260.6+0.60.0350.70.039
Transport Matters 2,5900.6+0.60.0370.60.036
Others 3,2900.80.04710.06
Informal 13,4843.13.4

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party and Labor each retained two seats.

Let’s fast-forward until there were sixteen candidates running for the last seat. At this stage, Transport Matters had gained very few preferences since the start of the count. Two Greens candidates were in the race but there were otherwise only one candidate per group still running.

  • Samantha Dunn (GRN) – 0.534 quotas
  • Brenton Ford (LDP) – 0.251
  • Nildhara Gadani (ALP) – 0.196
  • Linda De Rango (DHJ) – 0.159
  • Emanuele Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.155
  • Rosemary Lavin (AJP) – 0.149
  • Jeremy Orchard (DLP) – 0.104
  • Douglas Leitch (RP) – 0.077
  • Monique Ruyter (SFF) – 0.076
  • Dermot Ryan (VEP) – 0.057
  • Lynnette Saloumi (SUS) – 0.051
  • Andrew Hicks (HAP) – 0.049
  • Rod Barton (TMP) – 0.041
  • Bryce Larson (ABP) – 0.032
  • Helen Harris (GRN) – 0.032
  • Indhira Bivieca Aquino (ALA) – 0.029

Australian Liberty Alliance preferences mostly flowed to Transport Matters, pushing them from 13th to 10th:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.534
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.252
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.196
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.159
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.156
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.149
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.105
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.077
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.077
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.064
  • Ryan (VEP) – 0.057
  • Saloumi (SUS) – 0.051
  • Hicks (HAP) – 0.049
  • Larson (ABP) – 0.033
  • Harris (GRN) – 0.032

The second Greens candidate was excluded, with a majority of her preferences flowing to her colleague:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.553
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.252
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.200
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.160
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.156
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.151
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.105
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.078
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.077
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.064
  • Ryan (VEP) – 0.058
  • Saloumi (SUS) – 0.052
  • Hicks (HAP) – 0.050
  • Larson (ABP) – 0.033

Aussie Battler preferences flowed to Transport Matters, pushing Barton into eighth place.

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.553
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.252
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.200
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.160
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.156
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.151
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.105
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.093
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.078
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.077
  • Ryan (VEP) – 0.059
  • Saloumi (SUS) – 0.053
  • Hicks (HAP) – 0.050

A majority of Health Australia preferences flowed to Transport Matters, with others going to Sustainable Australia. This pushed Transport Matters into seventh place.

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.554
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.253
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.200
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.161
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.156
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.152
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.122
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.105
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.079
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.078
  • Saloumi (SUS) – 0.068
  • Ryan (VEP) – 0.059

Most Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to the Reason Party, pushing them just ahead of Transport Matters:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.556
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.253
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.201
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.163
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.157
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.154
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.124
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.123
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.106
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.078
  • Saloumi (SUS) – 0.069

Sustainable Australia preferences strongly favoured Transport Matters, pushing Barton into fourth place:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.559
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.254
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.203
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.174
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.165
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.158
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.157
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.126
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.106
  • Ruyter (SFF) – 0.079

Shooters preferences also strongly favoured Transport Matters, pushing them into third:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.560
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.256
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.239
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.204
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.167
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.159
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.158
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.127
  • Orchard (DLP) – 0.107

Most DLP preferences flowed to Transport Matters, pushing them into second place:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.561
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.329
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.257
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.205
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.169
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.164
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.160
  • Leitch (RP) – 0.127

Reason had been starved of preferences since the exclusion of Voluntary Euthanasia, and their preferences now flowed most strongly to Animal Justice, who jumped from seventh to fourth:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.580
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.331
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.258
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.243
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.213
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.175
  • Cicchiello (LIB) – 0.166

Liberal preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Democrats, pushing them into second:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.581
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.398
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.332
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.243
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.215
  • De Rango (DHJ) – 0.177

Preferences from Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party flowed strongly to Transport Matters, again putting them into second place:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.586
  • Barton (TMP) – 0.469
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.402
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.250
  • Gadani (ALP) – 0.219

About three quarters of Labor preferences flowed to Transport Matters, pushing them into the lead:

  • Barton (TMP) – 0.629
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.603
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.403
  • Lavin (AJP) – 0.254

Animal Justice preferences did scatter, but Transport Matters and the Liberal democrats took most of them, with the Greens remaining starved for preferences:

  • Barton (TMP) – 0.756
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.619
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.484

Finally, Liberal Democrats preferences were distributed until Transport Matters had cleared a quota. Practically none flowed to the Greens, leaving them stranded without much more than their primary vote:

  • Barton (TMP) – 1,080
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.621
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.141

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Labor is in a substantially stronger position in this region thanks to the redistribution. It’s not enough to win a third seat but should strengthen their two seats. The Liberal Party should hold their two but it’s not guaranteed if they have another bad election.

The Greens would need a strong preference flow and an increased vote to win, and the redistribution has made things more difficult.

Transport Matters won in 2018 due to a combination of good luck and strong preferences. While holding a seat may increase their vote, they will need good fortune and strong alliances to retain their seat in 2022. It could easily fall to another favoured minor party.

The Liberal Democrats polled well in 2018 due to drawing the first group on the ballot. They could challenge again if they do well on preferences, but they are not likely to do as well on primary votes.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in North Eastern Metropolitan – narrowly on the 2018 boundaries, but more substantially on the 2022 boundaries.

Labor came first in the upper house vote in seven electorates, while the Liberal Party came first in Box Hill, Bulleen, Glen Waverley and Warrandyte.

Labor’s primary vote was highest in Mill Park (49%) and Bundoora (45%) and lowest in Bulleen and Warrandyte (32% in both).

The Liberal primary vote was highest in Bulleen (43%) and Warrandyte (41%), while it dropped under 20% in Mill Park.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 4.1% in Mill Park to 13.5% in Ivanhoe.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the North Eastern Metropolitan region

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18 COMMENTS

  1. The Greens chances in the seat depend almost entirely on the abolition of group ticket voting.

    Minor correction:
    “In 2018, the Liberal Party lost their third seat and the Greens lost their seat. Labor gained a third seat,” mistakes the ALP regaing the second seat lost in 2014.

  2. Thanks Ben for a great example of how ridiculous Group Voting tickets are and what an insult they are to democracy. Unfortunately, the Andrews Government shows no willingness to rectify the situation – after all most of the MPs elected on miniscule primary votes seem to support them. I am not sure if the Victorian Legislative Council even serves a useful purpose. The Somyurek enquiry that MLCs did not have enough to do and their staff even less to do. It would be better to cut the staff and put the money toward having more elected representatives. Transport Matters is basically just a lobby group for the taxi industry and nothing more.

  3. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/ntheastmetro2022#comment-761802

    Since the Andrews Government relies on GTV elected micro party candidates to get legislation the Liberals don`t like through, they would be unlikely to change the system before the last few weeks of the term. The Electoral Matters Committee report into the 2018 election also said a separate inquiry would be needed before any change to the GTV system and there is still time to hold such an inquiry, so we don`t know if the Andrews Government is going to scrap GTV.

    At least when the government does not hold a majority in the Legislative Council, which has been the case for 3 out of the 4 terms since the introduction of proportional representation, it provides house of review functions.

    Somyurek is an MLC for South-eastern Metro, where the ALP have held 10 out of 11 districts since 2014 and thus presumably didn`t have as much demand for constituency representation as an MLC for a party that hold fewer districts in their region and thus is much more likely to have constituency workload for their party.

  4. Bruce Atkinson has been around so long I thought he was 300 years old. More dead wood that Vic Libs should tap on the shoulder and point toward the exit .

  5. Gladys has no chance, She will lose, she was drubbed in Chisholm at the federal election. She won’t win an upper house seat.

  6. Earning an upper house seat has nothing to do with personal electoral appeal and everything to do with party performance, position on the ticket and how the preference lottery under GTV works out. I am quite sure you know this already Daniel so perhaps think about what is realistic when making a call and not what happens to personally appeal to you.

  7. It’s very likely Gladys Liu would be preselected to a high ranking position on the ballot (1 or 2) if she hasn’t been already. Over the past 3 yrs in her time as MP, she has managed to have significant sway within the state Libs due to her close ties with power brokers in the factions like Robert Clark and Michael Sukkar. I’ve noticed in the final days of the federal campaign, she spent a lot of time campaigning with Matthew Guy, probably in anticipation of an upper house stint.

  8. I agree that personal electoral appeal doesn’t matter much especially if from my a major party. Gladys Liu will get across the line if she’s placed 1 or 2. She seems well-connected with the Liberal Party establishment.

    I mentioned in the Glen Waverley thread that there may be other ex-federal Liberal MPs who’ll seek state preselection hoping to “save” the Vic Liberal party.

  9. There are plenty of deadwood MPs in the upper house who have no appeal whatsoever on both sides of politics.

  10. Matthew Bach is an up and comer so he is probably quite safe. It has been reported that Bruce Atkinson has been backing Ranjana Srivastava for the vacancy. Gladys might get the #3 spot.

  11. Atkinson is bound to lose his preselection this time. It’s likely the Frydenberg-Sukkar faction will try and parachute Gladys Liu into Atkinson’s position on the ticket since she’s very loyal to that faction and the other prospective candidates are moderates.

  12. @ Daniel, The swing against Gladys Liu in Chisholm was similar to another seats with large Chinese Australian communities such as Bennelong, Moreton in fact it was greater in Reid and Bennelong. Menzies was slightly smaller but Labor made zero effort and Menzies has areas where the Chinese community is significantly smaller so i dont thing Gladys is to blame for the poor result in Chisholm.

  13. @redistributed I guess he decided to save himself from the embarrassment of losing preselection. He’s been in the upper house for 30 years.

    @Nimalan Agreed. I would add Chisholm was basically the only seat Labor really put any effort in for Victoria so it’s not a particularly bad result for Gladys Liu if you think about it from that angle and the fact Reid, Bennelong Tangney and Moreton swung a lot more than Chisholm. She likely was able to blunt a little bit of the swing though it wasn’t nearly enough to save her.

  14. I’d probably add the federal results for the area were horrible for the Liberals, which could mean they may only be left with 1 seat if the swing is on at the same magnitude. The order for whoever gets placed 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the preselection will really matter.

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