Bayswater – Victoria 2022

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  1. Usually I would label this a liberal gain, however Labor still think they have a chance in here which is extraordinary. Bill Shorten has been helping out & Jackson Taylor’s face is plastered everywhere. I only ever here praise for Taylor & I’ve seen him everywhere (in person) so I personally think Labor has a chance here.

  2. The incumbent for the abolished seat of Ferntree Gully, Nick Waekling, is running here. He has held Ferntree Gully since 2006. Jackson Taylor is more active in the local community though. Will make for an interesting contest

  3. There was a large anti-Lib swing here federally but that could be mostly due to Alan Tudge who won’t be a factor at the state level and this seat is the sort of demographic where the Libs seem to be increasingly appealing towards. Caulfield, Sandringham, Brighton and Glen Waverley are more likely to fall to Labor than Labor retaining this seat.

  4. @ Dan M, the one thing i would say is that the East of Stud Road is different from the rest of Knox and that it much more marginal and often a bellwether. Jackson Taylor was selected very late in the campaign in 2018 after the original candidate was removed due to controversies. Labor has not really campaigned in any part of Knox since the 2006 election and this was a win with little effort. Jackson Taylor seems to be an active MP he visits local schools and sporting clubs. He may very well get a sophomore surge. This time Labor will have a sitting MP so will be able to run a better postal and pre-poll campaign etc. Labor won this seat on the ordinary vote on these boundaries last time. He may well be able to turn the Kent Park PS and two Bayswater booths Red. Its really only Wantirna which is reliably a Liberal area.

  5. Taylor is out & about really working this electorate hard, I suspect Labor are the favourites here at this point of time however 5 months is a long time & a lot can happen so I wouldn’t put this in bag for Labor. It’s worth mentioning that no labor member has ever been re-elected here so it will be interesting to see is history is made, I am curious to know how similar the state seat of Wantirna was similar to bayswater or is it a mix of the old electorate of Knox?

  6. Jackson Taylor is a greart MP but this seat will be a nailbiter. What do you mean east of Stud Rd is different from the rest of Knox Nimalan, almost all of Knox is east of Stud Rd?
    Unfortunately the most reliable Labor part of Knox is east of Dorset Rd in Ferntree Gully, Upper Ferntree Gully, The Basin and parts of Boronia. This area is part of Monbulk (safe Labor seat) not Bayswater now.

  7. @ Adam, yep i made mistake i was meant to say east of Stud road in the seat of Bayswater (not all of Knox LGA) is more marginal and a bellwether and not as strongly Liberal as Wantirna (in this seat), Wantirna South, Rowville etc. Lysterfield is east of Stud Road and the strongest Liberal booth in the LGA. Last election Jackson Taylor was selected late and the swing was less than in the Old seat of Ferntree Gully so i believe Labor underperformed here in 2018 due to a short campaign period. Agree that having Upper FTG, The Basin etc in Monbulk does not help Jackson Taylor etc Having a sitting MP often means that pre-poll and postal vote performance can be improved all else being equal
    @Bob, Regarding re-election and history IMHO Labor could have held in 2006 both Ferntree Gully and Bayswater if it was not for the broken promise in Scoresby Tolls which damaged the standing here more so than in other parts of Victoria. They lost Ferntree Gully by only 27 votes if was not for this issue i believe they could have convinced at at least another 30 people to vote Labor. Also in 2006 the Libs promised to extend the tram to Knox City.

  8. The Herald Sun had a whole double page spread today talking about key seats to watch at the state election, include dozens of very safe seats, but no mention of Bayswater? How could they miss a seat on a margin of <1% with two incumbent MPs contesting?

    Glen Waverley an obvious omission as well.

  9. I would’ve been surprised by that too were it from a reputable news source, but we’re talking about the Herald Sun here.


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