Warrandyte – Victoria 2022

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  1. It does not seem to make sense to put Doncaster East and Chirnside Park together. One is in a middle ring suburb with a large Chinese and Southern European population and another is an outer fringe with a semi-rural feel with nearly everyone being Anglo and their transport alignments are different as well.
    I believe Doncaster East/Donvale should be in a seat that is within Urban Manningham and/or Nothern Whitehorse (just like the federal seat of Menzies) for a better community of interest.

  2. Matthew, i grew up in Manningham (still call it home) and i concur with your comments regarding Doncaster East and the ethnic composition although i would also add the large Persian community as well which is the largest in Victoria. It is possible to argue that Chirnside Park shares a community of interest with Wonga Park and the semi-rural part of Manningham is very Anglo unlike the suburban western half. Even parts of Donvale East of Springvale Road are much less diverse than suburbs to the West. The issue is that the East/North East of Melbourne has little population growth relative to the state so it a future redistribution will likely have to expand further same at a federal level. I would not be surprised if goes further East i the future.

  3. Possible Labor gain if the Liberals are serious about abandoning these small-l seats. The arrogance in some of the conservative ”liberal” politicians is absolutely outstanding and the comments from him will be the exact reason they will be thrashed this November. This would be very close on federal figures.

    Labor will get swings against them in the west and possible could lose Melton, But other than that they could get swings against them in western Melbourne but it doesn’t translate to any losses much like the Brisbane council elections for the LNP and in 2020 and the federal election for Labor.

    Labor has a shot of winning between 60-65 seats this November as a result of the infighting and the shift to the right which will only cause them to lose in a landslide. No seat is safe in eastern Melbourne in my opinion with the exception of Rowville and Malvern. (Unless you include Berwick as eastern Melbourne)

  4. Daniel, this my neck of the woods and my old primary school, Doncaster Gardens PS is here although i live in Bulleen electorate. I would not really describe this as small l liberal area (except Warrandyte North which has a very large green vote and is very socially progressive). It is Nouveau Riche rather than old money. Most of this would be similar to the Hills District I agree it could be vulnerable as it is not a populist area. Matthew’s comments above explain the ethnic demographics.

  5. Agree mostly with @Nimalan here. The north/north east of the seat definitely has a sizeable portion of small l Liberals but you could say it’s not just North Warrandyte but the whole Warrandyte area and is a lot more Anglo than the rest of the seat but it’s drowned out by the more populated and ethnically diverse Doncaster East.


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