Caulfield – Victoria 2022

ALP 0.2%

Incumbent MP
David Southwick, since 2010.

Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Caulfield covers the suburbs of Balaclava, Caulfield, Elsternwick, Gardenvale, Glenhuntly and Ripponlea and parts of the suburbs of Ormond, St Kilda and St Kilda East. Caulfield covers northwestern parts of the City of Glen Eira and small parts of the City of Port Phillip to the east of St Kilda.

Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Caulfield’s north-western corner, gaining part of St Kilda East from Prahran and losing a smaller area to Prahran. These changes flipped the seat from a very slim Liberal margin to a very slim Labor margin.

History
Caulfield was first created in 1927. In that time it has never been won by the ALP, and has always been won by conservative candidates, except one election when the seat was won by an independent socialist, in 1943.

The seat was first won in 1927 by the Liberal Party’s Frederick Forrest. He was re-elected in 1929, but died in office in October 1930.

The ensuing by-election was won by Harold Luxton. He held the seat for two terms, retiring in 1935. He was replaced in 1935 by Harold Cohen. He had been an MLC representing Melbourne South since 1929, and held Caulfield until 1943.

In 1943, Cohen was defeated by Andrew Hughes, an independent socialist candidate. Hughes  only held the seat for one term, losing to the Liberal Party’s Alexander Dennett.

Dennett ran as a candidate for the Electoral Reform party in 1955, and lost his seat to the Liberal Party’s Joseph Rafferty. Rafferty moved to the seat of Caulfield in 1958, which he held until 1967, when he moved again to Glenhuntly, which he held until his retirement in 1979.

In 1958, Caulfield was won by Alexander Fraser. He had previously held the seat of Grant from 1950 until his defeat in 1952, and then Caulfield East from 1955 to 1958. Fraser held the seat until his death in 1965.

The 1965 by-election was won by Ian McLaren. He had previously held the seat of Glen Iris for one term from 1945 to 1947. After one term in Caulfield, he moved to Bennettswood in 1967 and held it until his retirement in 1979.

In 1967, Caulfield was won by Edgar Tanner, who had previously been the Liberal Member for Ripponlea since 1955. He held Caulfield until his retirement in 1976.

Charles Francis won Caulfield in 1976. The next year he was expelled from the Liberal Party after abstaining on a no-confidence motion against the Liberal government, and he lost his seat in 1979 to Ted Turner, son of the former member.

The younger Turner served as a shadow minister in the 1980s and as Government Whip in the first term of the Kennett government, retiring at the 1996 election.

Caulfield was won in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Helen Shardey. Helen Shardey was re-elected in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and served on the frontbench when the Liberal Party was in opposition.

Shardey retired in 2010, and Caulfield was won by Liberal candidate David Southwick. Southwick was re-elected in 2014 and 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Caulfield is a very marginal seat. The Liberal Party usually has a stronger hold on the seat but it has rarely been particularly safe over the last few decades. Most likely the Liberal Party will retain this seat but if Labor has a good night they could win here.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Southwick Liberal 17,861 46.9 -4.8 46.1
Sorina Grasso Labor 13,054 34.2 +4.5 34.0
Dinesh Mathew Greens 5,387 14.1 -2.2 14.8
Troy Evans Animal Justice 1,153 3.0 +3.0 3.0
Aviya Bavati Sustainable Australia 665 1.7 +1.7 1.7
Others 0.5
Informal 1,735 4.4 +0.2

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Southwick Liberal 19,162 50.3 -4.6 50.1
Sorina Grasso Labor 18,958 49.7 +4.6 49.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas on election day, ranging from 53.9% in the east to 57.8% in the north-west. About 60% of the vote was cast through other categories of the vote, and the Liberal Party won those votes sufficiently to hold on to the seat.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.7% in the east to 18.2% in the north-west.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 18.2 42.2 6,664 16.6
South-West 14.4 42.9 4,285 10.7
East 10.7 46.1 4,209 10.5
Pre-poll 14.0 54.4 13,186 32.9
Other votes 15.4 53.9 11,711 29.2

Election results in Caulfield at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

Become a Patron!

151 COMMENTS

  1. Alternate history, If Labor had won Caulfield, Sandringham and Brighton at the 2018 state election, which seats do you guys think would have been held for them this time? Would they all have gone back Liberal or would Labor have held some of them?

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here