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Is this prediction based on polling or random? I don’t think the swing against Labor will be as big as 27.8%. Especially with Brittany Laura’s incumbency. Probably between 10% and 20% away from Labor.
@AA it’s based on polling, historical trends, federal results and random guesses. It will indeed be a huge swing though. I did of course need all the percentages to add up to 100% so some numbers are inflated or deflated. But Labor is in deep trouble and could fall to third.
Yes there is a danger of Labor being in third. They are in deep trouble in seats like this, especially Keppel because of its high existing One Nation vote and the money going into James Ashby’s campaign.
Truly awful what happened to Brittany Lauga earlier this week. I hope justice is served.
(If you don’t know and you’re Googling, TW: SA.)
Yes that’s just awful. Hope she’s alright and justice is served.
Have enjoyed reading all the comments on this thread, but once again, I must say I do not think Nether Portal is being realistic here.
Whilst I think the LNP will win, it will be a lot closer than 73% TPP. I think Brittany Lauga is a popular MP and the recent controversy reported in the media (I won’t repeat) will add further complexity to the results.
My primary predictions are LNP 39%, Labor 29%, One Nation 21%, Greens 7%. Two-party preferred will be about 55% LNP.
The LNP have a great candidate here with a significant profile and might even be in line for early promotion.
Agree PRP, this will probably be a pickup/gain for the LNP but is considered their second tier of targets (seats currently rated as close calls where Labor is still going to allocate resources to defend, unlike others such as Hervey Bay which are probably seen as write offs).
I don’t think LNP will score a swing of over 25% nor do I think Labor will finish third. I can agree on LNP winning this albeit with a 10 to 20% swing.
I do also believe that ON will recover their votes. I agree with Wilson’s comment that James Ashby walks and talks like a political operative with self-interests. He also carries a lot of political baggage and is quite gaffe-prone. It remains to be seen how much appeal he will have. Pauline, on the other hand, originally had appeal as someone who was outside the political establishment and from a more humble background.
I expect Labor to finish ahead of ON.
@PRP If One Nation got 21% primary then the LNP would end up with at least 58% TPP, probably about 60%.
I know a few people in Yeppoon and Keppel Sands and they’re saying that people are turning on Labor.
I agree with PRP, Nether Portal is overestimating the swing against Labor. There will not be a 25% swing away from Labor, due to Lauga’s popularity as a local MP. Labor will finish second, and the ON vote is unknown but Ashby seems to be gaining popularity in the local electorate. He’s already putting up signs and has had a lot of social media presence. He even made a theme song for One Nation at the end of his videos! This is miles ahead of other ON candidates who have next to no campaigning. Even their sitting MP Stephen Andrew doesn’t have the glossy videos like Ashby does. Looks like Ashby is putting himself well ahead of everyone else in the party.
@AA there probably won’t be but I really wouldn’t be surprised if there was.
Also I think Stephen Andrew is probably going to lose Mirani but finish second to the LNP. He only won last time because Labor finished first and One Nation finished second (though it was extremely close) so LNP preferences elected him. We know Labor won’t finish first in Mirani so for him to win he has to finish first by a considerable margin. If he finishes second to the LNP or even narrowly ahead of the LNP he’ll lose on Labor/Greens preferences flowing to each other then to the LNP before One Nation. That doesn’t mean he won’t win in 2028, but the mood at the moment is against Labor and it’s mostly going to the LNP. The LNP actually increased their primary vote in Mirani in 2022 while Labor and One Nation decreased theirs so the only reason Steve increased his margin over Labor was because of LNP preferences.
The outcome in Mirani depends on whether the LNP gets in the 2 party count. If that happens, then ONP will lose the seat. If the ALP somehow stays in the 2 party count, then it’s ONP’s to retain.
What’s interesting is that the ONP MP almost acts like an independent – zero One Nation branding on his social media posts, and no mention of the party or Pauline. So he could have a large swing towards him from local MP status/name recognition. If this swing comes from ex LNP voters, then ONP could retain Mirani.
@AA exactly but I don’t think Labor will get in the TCP count. As you correctly pointed out he only holds that seat because Labor is in the TCP count against him.