Keppel – Queensland 2024

Despite the now decent Labor margin of 5.6% here, if the LNP hope to win government, whether in minority or majority, they’ll certainly be after this seat.

I’d say tentatively it’s still Labor leaning but we’re a long way out from the election and I haven’t checked out too much polling recently.

Whilst Vince Lester was the mp this seat was coalition leaning. Now he has retired this is an alp leaning marginal seat

Former Livingstone Shire deputy mayor Nigel Hutton has been preselcted as LNP’s candidate in Keppel. I think Labor are slight favourites too. Last two elections North and Central Queensland hasn’t delivered for the LNP despite all the talk about Law and Order in the media being a deciding issue.

How many times has Labor been elected here.. think 3 times on the trot. Unless a big swing to lnp likely alp retain .. even in opposition

@mick this is a likely lnp gain.

@John agree.

One Nation announcing Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff James Ashby as their candidate in Keppel adds an interesting prospective in the mix. It could undermine the LNP’s chances with Ashby running a strong campaign, and splitting the LNP vote and playing spoiler. The LNP view it that way and are reported in the Guardian not happy about Ashby’s candidacy calling it a ‘distraction’.

Ashby reportedly lives in Yeppoon, and is getting money coming into his campaign with the likes of Gina Rinehart attending a fundraising event. Ashby maybe aiming to win, but there is speculation he is running to build up his profile to run as Hanson’s heir apparent when Hanson retires from the federal senate.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/08/james-ashby-gina-rinehart-wagyu-beef-pauline-hanson-one-nation-fundraiser-yeppoon

A big part of Hanson’s appeal (whether or not it’s based in reality) is her presenting herself as a genuine person who represents what regular Australians really think, as opposed to professional politicians serving their own interests. Is Ashby, who feels like the epitome of an oily political operative serving his own interests, going to have the same appeal? I’ll believe it when I see it.

Although, having a lot of money to run a campaign can help. That’s the more interesting thing about this story to me: Gina Rinehart openly backing One Nation, and potentially burning some of the goodwill she has with the LNP in the process. If she continues to donate to ON, a big advertising campaign could help them get back to their 2017 levels at least.

Ashby certainly has the profile to win this seat and tbh i support him

PN
Very astute comment. This campaign is all about the future senate spot.

@wilson I think with his profile fundraising and the one nation brand he will certainly be competitive and possibly win the seat and also in the article points at Peta credlin giving him a ringing endorsement, which in the same way as Gina rinehart is odd given Boths longstanding connection to the LNP. I can’t think of reason as to why they are elevating a competing right wing voice with the LNP.

@sam because one nation keeps the liberals honest to the conservatives and they seem think hes competent

People are talking about Ashby inheriting the ONP as their primary figure. But I’m unsubstantiatedly speculating Rinehart is looking around for a vehicle to enter politics and might end up as their new face. This might sound bizarre, but Rinehart also made an “appearance” recently on Pauline Hanson’s cartoon series. An episode where various elected representatives were playing Minecraft together.

@john he is certainly “competent” in so far as his political operations and fundraising ability and keeping the LNP honest to conservatives might be what they are trying to do but to Wilson’s point why burn bridges with the party they have a long association with in the hopes of making them more conservative. I would argue both have significant influence in the party (GR also has a lot of cash to throw around) it doesn’t rlly add up for me. Also reading the article again it seems that other then the fact he lives in Yeppoon Ashby doesn’t appear to have much of a community profile so I’m not as sure that he can win.

@SEQ good points Rinehart could be doing a Clive Palmer but it would be ironic for the party that claims to represent ordinary Australians having their leader be the richest person in Australia

Sam, I do wonder if the One Nation brand will survive the loss of Hanson. It didn’t last time, only experiencing a revival when Hanson went back to it. It’s entirely possible the party will fade into irrelevance like the Democrats did. In that scenario, maybe another party from the far-right will rise up, or maybe those people will start following Dutton if he remains Liberal leader. Who knows.

But if SEQ Observer is right, and Rinehart steps into the limelight to take over as the face of One Nation, that changes everything due to her financial power. She could be a longer-lasting presence than Clive Palmer was.

@Wilson
Please keep on under-estimating the potential of the minor parties. Hanson has a presence in QLD, elsewhere she is seen as a divisive figure. however the left keep on dismissing her and ON as mere racists. Such a binary, prejudicial, and limited view will bring it’s own consequence.
No one in the minors is going anywhere near the Liberal Party. However the Liberal Party may be interested in “renegotiating” it’s relationship with the minors.
A turning point may be the success of Advance Australia’s campaign against “the PM’s voice”. Another illustration of the Civil War underway in the Liberal party.

Nsw did well in nsw in upper house 2

Paladin, you can cheerleader for One Nation as much as you like, but I’m perplexed as to what I wrote that you’re taking issue with. Plenty of people switch their votes from minor parties to major ones, as can be seen from the 2020 election.

I think the LNP are overreacting a bit to ON’s entrance. LNP obviously have high hopes and hence the early preselection. I can totally understand the fear of vote-splitting. ON running definitely is not a surprise and it’s likely they’ll run in most seats. James Ashby is well-known figure but bear in mind, they have a history of ‘star canditates’ such as a former Broncos player and Malcolm Roberts in 2017 and Pauline Hanson herself in 2015. In 2017, ON got 47% 2PP, at the expense of the LNP. However, the 2019 federal election showed that ON has the potential to take primary votes away from Labor whilst leave the LNP’s primary vote intact.

I thought James Ashby was in line to take over Hanson in the Senate but this could be a possibility in 2025. If not, there might be a challenge between Ashby and Malcolm Roberts for the no. 1 spot on the Senate ticket.

James Ashby has a lot of political baggage from his time involved in Peter Slipper’s undoing. From doing an internet trawl it is anybody’s guess might still come out.

‘What’ might still….

Wilson
Thanks for so capably illustrating, & reinforcing, just what i was talking about. Clearly you didn’t understand my reflexion of the relationships between the minors, & the Liberals. Or were you simply disinterested, or unreceptive generally ?
WRT 2020 i’d be extremely guarded & sceptical of drawing many conclusions for 2024 Particularly about voters moving from minors to majors. . A few things have happened since …..!. Things were still pretty cosy in 2020 don’t you think ?

BTW I’m far too old & sceptical, to cheerlead for any political party. Insightful perceptive people vote against parties not for them.

Paladin, I don’t recall drawing any conclusions for the 2024 election above. I was speaking about the fate of One Nation after Hanson departs politics. And yes, I don’t understand what has caused you to be so annoyed.

i think one nation will endure after pauline hanson reitres and/or dies. they have established themselves as the alternate party for conservatives who feel abandoned by the coalition.

“Plenty of people switch their votes from minor parties to major ones, as can be seen from the 2020 election.”
I guess that’s NOT drawing a conclusion ?
Being actively engaged with several minor parties and having lived experience over a decade plus might actually give me some insight don’t you think ?
As for “caused you to be so annoyed.” Really !?
Incuriosity is just a little frustrating to deal with, not really very annoying

John
Actually i think the Libertarian Party draws more disaffected Liberals atm. ON draws a lot of disaffected labor voters too. It’s essentially a nationalist party, the left simply refuse to see ON objectively. So i sort of agree that it draws conservatives, but not just from the liberals.

Perhaps it could be said that One Nation draws those who think the Liberals aren’t socially conservative enough, whereas the Libertarian Party draws those who think the Liberals aren’t fiscally conservative enough.

One Nation would benefit from reversing the perception that they are xenophobic. Whether or not you think they are, and whether or not you think the media has treated them unfairly, the way the party has presented itself over its entire existence has undoubtedly contributed to that perception. One Nation has political positions would appeal to voters across the spectrum, and that differentiate them from the major parties, but these positions never get the spotlight. The PVV in the Netherlands had great success in shifting emphasis to economic issues such as housing affordability.

Nicholas
A Really excellent, and insightful post. i agree 100%. Although i’d add that the lines are very blurry wrt the drawing,& engagement !!.

Also there is the personal element wrt Hanson,Latham et al.
1/ they enjoy being the most important person in the room (commanding, dominating etc)
2/ they are unconcerned of the impact they have on others (if there is a problem it’s your problem)
the level of confrontation they can tolerate is very different to more moderate folk so their points are often lost (in the melee !)

I tend to think ON, or at least some form of it, will outlive PH – in fact I think it will thrive. For all of her ‘popularity’ amongst some members of the public, she is very off putting for a lot of people. Certainly no Nigel Farage.

The key I think is that ON appeals to a lot of old Labor voters, who are off put by the more liberal, Uni Educated, dare I say establishment, cohort of the current ALP, but who see the same historical tendencies in the Liberals so won’t vote that way. Pretty much the same as the Greens, as much as many of their Members/voters will disagree, the majority of the Greens come from the ranks of people who would formerly vote Liberal but found them too be too conservative but won’t vote Labor due to the Union/working class affiliations.

i think whether ONP will outlive PH depends really on the economic and social circumstances of the time. I honestly believe One Nation does not do well when there is a general view that the best days of the nation are ahead and the country is moving in the right direction. One Nation died in the 2000s during the good economic times and was only resurrected in 2010s. I do accept @MLV views that part of One nation’s bases are traditional blue collar Labor voters often in Regional QLD, Hunter Valley etc. The other part of One Nation vote base is rural formerly National Party voters. That is why think One Nation is necessarily the right-flank of the Coalition. One Nation is often more economically left-wing than even the Labor party and support intervention and fiercely anti-privatisation.

* I dont think One Nation is necessarily the right flank of the Coalition.

@Nimalan One Nation is economically nationalist, so economically it would be placed on the right-wing or far-right, as they are also quite anti-union. Socially they are conservative and right-wing. The party is also agrarian. The word for this ideology is Hansonism.

I also think that a lot of the One Nation vote, as many have pointed out, is often people who don’t know how to vote or who to vote for but they remember Pauline Hanson from the late 90s/early 2000s so they vote One Nation. Essentially, to describe it in Aussie slang, One Nation is the Bogan Party and Pauline Hanson is That Ranga Who Ran a Fish and Chip Shop in Ipswich and is Against Mass-Immigration, “Bogan Queen”.

This reminds me of a YouTube skit from ShakTV (the comedian who made The Eshay Alphabet video) called “The Bogan Alphabet”. When the bloke (who is portrayed as a typical bogan with a mullet with a very Aussie accent and who drinks a lot) gets to L, he says “L is for Liberals/Labor/Greens are cockheads! Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s who I vote for!”. That’s the mentality of a lot of One Nation voters from what I’ve noticed. Most One Nation voters outside the cities didn’t have a massive problem with COVID vaccine mandates and most got the jab, but they had similar views on mass-immigration, putting Australia first, etc, plus they felt they could understand her points of view, because I must admit (even as someone who’s voted Liberal all his life), she does manage to use common sense arguments to appeal to disaffected rural voters. She’s obviously still crazy, but she does manage to make comprehendible arguments on some things.

Trust me: without Pauline (who is, by the way, one of the most easily recognisable Australians of all time), there wouldn’t be a One Nation.

Anyway, I’m gonna predict here that One Nation’s vote will drop at least a little bit, but I also think that like how she contested almost every federal seat in 2022 (for some reason she didn’t contest Higgins or Kennedy, I guess she avoided Kennedy to avoid unseating Bob Katter but idk why she didn’t contest Higgins), she’ll contest almost all if not all state seats in Queensland in 2024.

@ Nether Portal
I agree with your analysis. Economic nationalism is probably a better way to describe ONP than i did. The reason i used economically left wing is because i did not feel its is anything like the economic policy of the Libs which embrace free markets, tax reform, foreign investment, privatization etc. I felt it was more like the Labor party in the 1960s under Arthur Calwell. However, you correctly pointed out they are anti-union something i missed and also they are against welfare payments as well.
Regarding your second point idk why they did not contest Higgins especially when they contest Melbourne a more progressive and demographically unfavorable seat compared to Higgins. I think in QLD they may contest all state seats except what is currently held by KAP.

One indicator for what might happen to ON after PH is what happens to the republicans in America after Donald Trump. While the PH exit might occur first and I am cautious of making parallels to American politics, both PH and trump have similar styles and political characteristics. Economic nationalism, social conservatism especially on issues like immigration the lines are near identical. I would hardly describe Trump as economically left wing but certainly economically nationalist and it has succeeded in drawing votes from particularly working class white voters from the democrats and in the Australian context from Labour to ON. Once again cautious abt drawing conclusions from the comparison but trump imitating candidates have been less successful generally in elections he is not running in so my wager would be a similar thing happening once PH exits the scene.

@sam the next republican candidate if backed by Trump will probably win if they’re a reasonable candidate. They will get the Trump voters and the independents who will be more inclined to vote republican since its not trump. My guess republicans will be in the white house until 2036 at least the democrats have very little up and coming talent in terms of presidential candidates. I think we might even see a woman president before the decade is out.

One Nation may survive as a Queensland only party without Pauline Hanson. They could be the third force in rural and regional Queensland, outside of Katter-held seats. Unlike the Greens, they can pull votes from Labor and LNP. Their base will mainly be small towns and settlements, especially those dependent on primary industries such as mining, agriculture and associated transport industries.

There was some hope for ON in NSW but that’s all but gone now as Mark Latham has left. They polled strongly in western Sydney and peri-urban areas like Camden and Wollondilly at the 2022 federal and 2023 NSW state elections. ON could be destroyed from within since they have a history of infighting and elected MPs quitting mid-way.

“Trust me: without Pauline (who is, by the way, one of the most easily recognisable Australians of all time), there wouldn’t be a One Nation.” @Nether Portal.
I agree. She got a swing away from her at the 2022 Senate election and this was despite the anti-establishment vote and her own personal vote. At this rate, Malcolm Roberts will miss out in 2025. Dutton’s homestate advantage and populist rhetoric will win over many ON voters.

@votante i rhink that was more because of the vote for the left increasing he will survive on preferences from the left and minor parties as they usually band together to preference swap. I think they will swing back to 3 lnp 1 Labor 1 greens and on. So the status quo. I think the extra seat the left got in 2022 will go back to the lnp in 2028 especially if Labor are still in govt.

@John

Labor winning one senate seat in Queensland has only happened once (2019). It’s not ‘status quo’ like you suggest. Paul Williams the other day wrote Malcolm Roberts would likely lose his senate seat at the next election. I’m reluctant to comment any further because this thread is supposed to be about Keppel.

@PN queensland usually delivers 4 conservative senators and 2 of the left. Given that the lnp will be elected in Oct they will benefit from honeymoon and I think the 4-2 will remain

@ Sam
Agree with your analysis. I personally doubt whether the Coalition would ever embrace economic nationalism. The issue is that Australia runs a trade surplus especially with China and the last Coalition agreement signed quite a few FTAs. Australia is an exporter of primary products and our agricultural industry is globally competitive without the requirement of subsidies, quite different from farmers is in Iowa. The manufacturing sector may support protectionism but manufacturing is largely concentrated in safe Labor seats in NW Melbourne, Dandenong Corridor, Northern Adelaide.

Onp will not win this seat
And Gina will not be Senator
Gina

John wrote:

> he [Malcolm Roberts] will survive on preferences from the left and minor parties as they usually band together to preference swap

Hello, left-wing-minor party person here. We’d rather die than recommend prefs to One Nation. Luckily we don’t have to.

Consider that Animal Justice, Cannabis, Greens, Labor will all be around as relatively safe options, plus (from my perspective) my own party equals five, so at that point I really only need one more left/dem/teal minor party in the mix to get to six. And I expect to get that; there were about five such possibilities last election.

Certainly there’s a heap of right-wing minor parties out there, especially in Qld, and plenty of them will recommend prefs to One Nation.

Also:

> queensland usually delivers 4 conservative senators and 2 of the left

Since 2000 we’ve had the following results:

2001: 3 L/NP, 2 ALP, 1 Dem. (The Dems especially towards the end drew more from the left I think.)
2004: 4 L/NP, 2 ALP. (Matches)
2007: 3 L/NP, 3 ALP.
2010: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 Grn.
2013: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP. (Now, 2013 era PUP were elected with more centrist-populist than conservative positioning; I’ll give it half-matches.)
2016: 5 LNP, 4 ALP, 2 ONP, 1 Grn. (Under s292 that would be 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 ONP so yes, matches).
2019: 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 ONP, 1 Grn. (Matches)
2022: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 ONP, 1 Grn.

So that’s 3.5 out of the last 8. I suppose you could argue it’s 2.5 out of the last 4. Now, those 3.5 (or 2.5) were elections the LNP won, so you’d expect them to do better than average! Fundamentally if you’re arguing that Qld will see a 4-2 split you’re also generally arguing that the statewide 2PP will be better than 57-43 for the LNP. Anything less and it should be a 3-3. At least until we expand Parliament. With 7 Senators per State, now you just have to win the 2PP.

@alexj not necessarily people vote differently in the upper house then they do in the lower and one and Pauline Hanson are popular in qld. The last election saw the 2nd Labor person just get I. Over the lnp one so an anti government vote would tilt it back to the lnp

@mick I wouldn’t write 9fv James ashby tbh. One thing for certain Labor won’t win this seat

As far as House-Senate variation goes, there’s a bit but it’s not too substantial.

E.g. my nparty tool* lets me classify every Senate ballot in Qld as either Grn, ALP, LNP, ON or none of those, then aggregate by division. If we then match those up with the 22/30 divisions in Qld where those four parties made the top four, the r-squared values are:

– Greens 0.98
– Labor 0.96
– Lib/Nat 0.92
– Pauline 0.99

Which is pretty good!

* https://github.com/alexjago/nparty

Predictions here:

Primaries:
LNP: 48.5% (+18.9%)
One Nation: 22.3% (+6.6%)
Labor: 18.4% (–27.8%)
Greens: 5.2% (+1.2%)
Others: 5.3% (+4.9%)

TPP:
LNP: 73.4% (+29.0%)
Labor: 26.6% (–29.0%)

The swing here will likely be huge, maybe like Bathurst in 2011 in NSW where the swing was enough to permanently damage Labor.

Note that the TPP contest is notional since my numbers have One Nation finishing second and therefore making the TCP count.