Queensland 2024

@Mark Yore why did One Nation preference Labor in some seats in 2016? It doesn’t make much sense looking at their policies but it was indeed effective in 2016. Nationwide One Nation preferences only narrowly flowed to the Coalition (roughly 51%).

@NP one nation preferences against the moderates and lef tleaning mps. hnece why the preference liberals in braddon but nt in bass they are trying to get rid of the mps that are to left

@Nether Portal How One Nation preference decisions are made are mostly a case of who Pauline is angry with at the time. They’re not consistent, they’re not strategic and they’re not really deliverable to any great extent. Whether some votes change away from parties because they end up receiving One Nation preferences is an interesting calculation – it doesn’t happen to the beneficiaries of Green, AJP, UAP or Socialist preferences.

As I said, One Nation has a small core of people who vote for them based on their policies and a much larger cohort of voters who are angry with the major parties and want to punish them – but not enough to not preference them.

@John One Nation did that because the Liberals directed preferences to the JLN ahead of One Nation in Tassie.

@Mark Yore good points. I also think Pauline Hanson herself has a major personal vote so once she’s retired the party will probably collapse. People vote for One Nation because of Pauline Hanson, who is one of the most recognisable Australians of all time. According to the Brisbane Times (https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland-election-2017/behind-the-scenes-of-the-battler-bus-20171111-p4ywxz.html): “Federal Senator [Pauline] Hanson is one of the most recognisable Australians alive today, given her history in both politics and pop culture – never forget she came runner-up in the first season of Dancing with the Stars.”

This has been a very interesting thread.

I do think though there is common misconception that clouds how we look at preferences etc. If you look at it like this the current situation makes more sense:
* Greens voters would have a generation or 2 ago voted Liberal
* PHON voters would have a generation or 2 ago voted Labor.

This explains the antipathy between Labor and Greens, the spraying of ON preferences etc, and is one way the political realignment happening around the western world is playing out in Australia. In particular, Greens Voters are much more like DLP voters, determined to keep the Libs (really the Nats) out, whereas ON voters are a bit less ideological.

@Wilson, this is why I think the preferences of those switching LNP->ON on the back of the emissions target will still spray. Once you remove the opposition to emissions targets (not necessarily emissions reductions per se), culturally many of these voters will find more affinity with Labor, or what they think Labor is, than the Libs, or what they think the Libs are.

@Nimalan, I think the Greens rise in old Labor strongholds is based on demographic change, not on Labor voters switching.

Of course, YMMV, and younger voters probably have no real reference for what I am talking about.

@ MLV
I agree that some Labor strongholds have become green-friendly as there has been demographic change. A shift to young renters/students. However, i am not sure if we can say those people would have voted Liberal a generation or two ago. An economic dimension of Green voters is they are Asset poor with low wealth as they tend to be younger. A lack of home ownership is a defining characteristic of Green voters generally. By contrast One Nation voters actually tend to be older and wealthier than average. The core demographic of One Nation voters are usually self-employed, small business or farmers which is actually one part of the Coalition voter base. One nation is anti-union, anti-welfare etc. I do accept that ONP can sometimes pick up some traditional blue collar voters such as coal miners while the Greens can pick up voters from the Libs in the absence of a Teal.

There was a good podcast that dealt with ecological fallacy and economic considerations on how voting patterns occur.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/49071

Interestingly I think the Green voting educated gentrifiers moving into inner cities would have actually been Liberal voters a generation ago, or at least Democrats/Teals. But now it seems like Greens are actually getting cut through into Labor’s base too. IIRC Max Chandler Mather said he got a lot of cut through with young families in his electorate when he was out doorknocking

@ John
I agree Green voters are generally well-educated but the issue is that is that they have low wealth. Home ownership is fault line so Green voters will be more economically progressive than incomes may suggest. If you listen to the podcast which i linked income level was probably never as much of a divide as home ownership or how the income is earned-either employed workers who earn thorough their labour or those who earn income through ownership of capital/business owners. It explains why Canberra has always been strongly Labor despite being much more affluent than Australia as a whole. For that reason, i am not sure if suburbs such as Carlton etc would have become Liberal as they gentrified even if the Greens did not exist

“Greens voters would have a generation or 2 ago voted Liberal”

It really depends on where your Green voter lives and their socio economic standards and milieu.

The statement is quite true when you look at high levels of Green voting on the North Shore, Ryan, Higgins or Macnamara. However, that Greens support is very soft – it is basically a vote looking for a home that is not with the Labor or Liberal Parties. The Teals definitely fit the bill as they are similarly small l liberal, environmentally concerned and pretty conservative on economics. It has to be also said that the Liberals have been losing these types of voters in these seats since the 1960s when the Vietnam War was the catalyst – first to the Australia Party and then to the Democrats and in recent years to the Greens and Teals. Conversely, until recently they also picked up enough new voters – from the DLP in the 70s – or held on to the ones they had to staunch the flow.

On the other hand, the statement is quite false, as the Greens have been gaining voters in Inner Sydney and Melbourne – and to a lesser extent in the other cities – from Labor for decades. Largely they have come from the left Largely at first to the Nuclear Disarmament Party – motivated by the anti nuclear movement – a slow dribble to the Greens after the demise of the Democrats. For older voters in this category, they might use the ‘I didn’t leave Labor, Labor left me not ‘ line. For younger Greens voters, Climate Change has probably been the big motivator and they probably see the Labor Party as a ‘much nicer’ version of the Labor Party. The only way Labor could reverse this flow is by their electing some sort of Australian Jeremy Corbyn – and that is not going to happen – I don’t that person even exists in the ALP.

Compared to what happens in the upper middle class areas, this inner city Greens vote is much firmer and likely to stick.

@Nimalan, most of the Greens voters are not low income (but not necessarily high income), at least before HECS and rent. Couple that with education level, profession and family wealth and I would be very confident you are looking at a cohort who would once have been natural Lib voters.

@ MLV
I did not say that Greens voters were low income i said low wealth which means ownership of assets like property which is a big difference. Green voters tend to be renters. There is no way at all you can say Green voters may have been born into wealthy families unless you can show me data to back that up. In Australia unlike in the US you can go to university without family wealth as someone who grew up in Malvern and went to Scotch College and Afghan who grew up in Hallam and attended Dandenong High can both get into university and both are eligible to study on HECS which is not means tested. I used to teach at university and i literally had former private school students and students from refugees in my class. Also profession is less important that how income is earned as i just mentioned. Someone who went to university and then got a job in the public service will have different economic interests than one who did the same course and started their own law firm or accounting practice. One Nation voters tend to own property and in many cases are self-employed.

‘PHON voters would have a generation or 2 ago voted Labor.’

In areas outside Queensland such as the Hunter or Latrobe Valleys, I would wholeheartedly agree. And if we had different geographical and social situations that lead to a widespread ‘rust belt’ there would be even bigger areas. Wollongong and Geelong would have been prime candidates but they commuter belt instead and Northern Adelaide and Newcastle would also have been candidates except for economic flexibility.

In Queensland, it is more complex because of the National Party. The National Party from Bjelke Petersen onwards could pick up voters from Labor – voters who would never vote Liberal. There was never much separating the old style Qld ALP and the Qld Nats – Bob Katter is case in point. So a lot of those ON voters would have first gone off to the Nats, may be back to Labor for a while but they are now probably lost to the ALP forever. ON voters seem to thrive on grievance and like the Greens in middle class seats, it is a pretty soft vote. It will be interesting to see where those floating aggrieved voters go in a Post Pauline Post Palmer world.

Between the middle class suburbs of Griffith, the non hippie parts of Ballina/Richmond, and the semi rural and “outer suburbs” areas of Ryan, Greens will learn a lot about campaigning in areas they’ve never really considered.

If Greens can win Moggill that puts them in a good position in a bunch of other areas that currently vote Liberal across Australia – some clear environmental values but not your classic “small l”/teal areas. It won’t be easy to pull off though.

Of the listed targets Greenslopes seems to be the closest to a standard middle class suburban seat? IIRC it’s also an LNP/ALP bellwether

Redistributed – I would argue that none of those in your second group were ever really Labor voters, in fact, I think you have made my point for me.

Labor Voter, I don’t think the type of voters that favour the Greens today (predominantly environmentally minded, but also support social justice issues) really existed in a historical context. Inner city Sydney and Melbourne were still considered ‘industrial’ in the early days of Federation (first half of 20th century) and the voters residing there were similar in nature to those currently based in areas like Central Queensland and the Hunter Valley. It is only when the old industries like ports began to decline that those people moved out, to be replaced by a new generation who most likely did come from the more affluent parts of the city.

@ Yoh An
i agree with you. The only caveat i would ad is that we cannot say whether someone who is an inner city renter in Newtown for example and votes Greens grew up in Mosman or Mount Druitt. You could have have some who had a working class background but went to university and now lives in the inner city and has no family wealth.

MLV – Second Group? Which post – first or second?

Yoh An
The middle class move into the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne has been happening for nigh on 60 years and was very definitely entrenched by the late 1970s in suburbs like Paddington, Balmain and Glebe – other parts of inner Sydney followed later. 50 or 60 years is more relevant historically than anythign really beyond that.

Yes – I did understand you Nimalan, I just think you are making my point for me, higher income Uni graduates with professional jobs are pushing out Labor voters, they are not moving from Labor -> Greens. Just because they are asset poor does not make them old fashioned Labor voters.

And my point is once you grasp that, a lot of what we are seeing re antagonism between Greens and Labor makes a lot more sense. Similarly, many if not all ON voters are culturally working class so it makes sense their preferences come back to Labor at higher rates than you would think. I think a lot would be bemused that owning a house suddenly makes them Libs!!!!

@redistributed – starting with NDP

@ MLV
OK maybe i should have stated clearly Green voters may not be traditional Labor voters they may not be unionized so in that sense i agree with you. I feel Yoh an, explained it better when stating that it is a demographic that really did not exist historically or at least has been amplified, so i am not really sure you can it is a traditional liberal demographic either. It is probably a new demographic that does not neatly fit into either. There are plenty of university graduates who vote Labor for example in the Canberra seats and have done so for a long time. The Labor party has two wings one is it is traditional blue collar unionized base and the other a progressive middle class wing which is made up of public serpents, teachers, nurses, firefighters, paramedics etc. The thing that unites both wings of Labor’s base is that they rely on earned income. The Coalition also has two wings one is an affluent base and the other self-employed base who as you said maybe culturally working class. I do think a lot of the Core of One Nation vote is actually a breakaway of one of the two wings of the Coalition which is the self-employed base who like you said are culturally working class but probably dont have the same economic interest as unionized blue collar workers.

Yoh An, I pretty much agree with you, except I think they did exist and formed part of the ‘left wing’ of the Liberal party. There has always been a part of the Libs that were environmentally and social justice focussed – but if your memory only goes back to the start of the Howard years you would forget that.

Many working-class Labor voters that currently in the outer suburbs are descendants of former working-class and now gentrification inner-city residents that moved to the outer suburbs at least one generation ago due to cheaper and bigger housing. I heard this with stories of Anglos that used to live in Fitzroy now living in Carrum Downs or Vietnamese that used to live in Footscray and Richmond now living in St Albans or Springvale.

On the topic of One Nation voters.

Interesting that there are suggestions that One Nation voters tend to be self-employed and homeowners. I think age is perhaps the driver of the ON vote. Self-employment and home ownership tend to correlate with age. One Nation traditionally was most popular in peri-urban areas such as Ipswich, Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Caboolture, as well as regional working-class towns, dependent on primary industries. Home ownership rates are high due to relative affordability and a less transient population – one you’d expect in the inner city or near a major uni. I’m referring to pre-2022 voting patterns.

The 2022 federal election was interesting in that ON’s best performances outside QLD were in for Western suburbs of Sydney and outer suburbs of Melbourne. They include mortgage belt areas. Ironically, many of these electorates have a high percentage of people who are Muslim and/or Asian, despite Hanson saying in her maiden speeches “swamped by Asians/Muslims”.

@MLV I definitely disagree with the statement that “Greens voters would be traditional Liberal voters”. It’s absolutely false as their position on economic issues as well as some social and environmental issues are in stark contrast to each other. A lot of it will be from demographic change.

The Greens have actually gained more ground from Labor and the Democrats than they have the Liberals. The Greens’ first ever victory in a NSW state seat was in 2011 (a Coalition landslide where Labor suffered one of the worst ever defeats of a sitting government in since Federation) when the Greens won Balmain, traditionally a very safe Labor seat that historically had a very working-class and unionised background. The Greens also hold another inner-city Sydney seat: Newtown. Judging by this, when Albo resigns from Parliament, his seat of Grayndler could be in play for the Greens as it overlaps with both Balmain and Newtown.

@Votante, This is why income isn’t necessarily a good indicator in Australia regarding the classification of the working class. Afterall, it is common for tradies to earn more than software engineers even though the latter requires a university degree in most cases.

@MLV Liberal member here so I’d be interested to whether you can point me to an example of this historical “teal wing” of the Liberal Party. Labor indeed had nationalist/protectionist and non-nationalist/free trade wings until Arthur Calwell’s resignation (Calwell led Labor to support the White Australia Policy until his resignation whilst supporting Indigenous rights), but I can’t remember anything about such a split in the Liberal Party.

The Australian reports that Queensland Labor is struggling to find candidates, even in winnable seats. This explains why there’s still been no Labor candidate announcements for non-Labor seats.

Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/labors-urgent-plea-for-candidates-for-winnable-seats/news-story/1ad26354671172833d67942ec76c8838?amp&nk=dd608927a61ee15ad2254ea8fe22bb5c-1713908748

NP
In the 60s, 70s, 80s and even into the 90s there were socially liberal Liberal MPs. People like Don Chipp, Ian McPhee, Peter Baume and Chris Puplick come to mind. In terms of things like nature conservation, the Libs in the 60s and 70s were ahead of Labor on the issue.

@NP,

Um, Malcolm Turnbull? I only had to go back 5 years!

Again, Balmain is a good example of what I mean, thank you for making my point for me. It wasn’t changing voting patterns within a demographic, but demographic change as Labor voters were forced out by Greens voters. There was probably a small amount of vote change, but demographic change is the big driver.

MLV
Picking up on the discussion yesterday. I looked at two booths in inner city seats – both areas gentrified a long time ago so have been fairly stable demographically. I compared Princes Hill in Melbourne to East Balmain – which has been in both Sydney and Grayndler. Comparing 2004 and 2022 – the Labor vote in Princes Hill has fallen from 50% to 23% and the Greens vote has gone from 22% to 55%. Similar demographic but a big change in the political landscape. In East Balmain – now in Grayndler the ALP vote has gone from 46% to 54% but the Greens have stayed stable at 16 or so %. It is the Liberal vote in both cases that has also fallen away. In Grayndler, seemingly gone to Labor. The big diference here is that Albo is a popular local member and has held Labor votes. At the 2023 state election, the Greens and ALP votes are effectively equal – only 4 votes in it. In similar demographics, the Greens are winning votes from Labor – the Labor vote is at risk.
PS: I chose booths as there were too many variables looking at whole electorates.

@MLV the majority of people care about the environment but not enough to be considered green.

I thought the point you were making was that Greens would’ve been Liberals a decade ago, which isn’t true. Balmain has long been a Labor seat and the Liberals have actually never won it: their best result there was in 2011.

NP, I think Labor Voter is referring to the fact that many Greens voters today would have been considered ‘moderate’ Liberals in the historical context. Inner city areas like Balmain which are heavily gentrified today were considered industrial areas pre 1950’s, so it would have resembled places like Silverwater, Wollongong or Newcastle today which contain union backed, Labor leaning voters instead of those with a tertiary educated background who will back the Greens instead.

NP, I meant a generation ago, or probably 2 or 3 more realistically. This is the long slow realignment of Western politics, so you aren’t going to necessarily see it in real time. And a lot will involve some transitioning, e.g. young professionals go Labor then Green (not the same ones but later cohorts). It is very much my contention that a lot of Teal voters had already left the Libs for what to them was probably less than ideal Labor or Greens before a Teal candidate came along.

It is also true in somewhere like Balmain that the Labor voters are more Green positive than in the outer suburbs, it is why a Labor Greens coalition bubbles away happily in the ACT but grew toxic to voters in Tasmania for instance.

This is not a simple one size fits all process, and Nimalan is right that at least some of this is driven by the difficulty in gaining assets, e.g. homes.

@Yoh An,

Exactly.

@ Votante,
I agree with your commentary. Just to add to it, you are correct One Nation voters tend to be much older than the general public. You are correct in 2022 Federal election, they did quite well in areas that have a lot of CALD communities such as Western Sydney & Outer Melbournes, areas affected by the pandemic. Interestingly, at the following state elections they did not bother with this demographic. In Victoria they won a seat in the Northern Victoria Region home to the Murray Darling Basin and in 2023 NSW state election they focused on peri-urban areas such as Hawkesbury, Wollondilly and Camden. The issue is that areas like Calwell have a much younger population. Another interesting, thing is the One Nation is not really winning the Religious vote. The % of One Nation voters who never go to Church even for weddings and funerals is much higher than the general Australian public. In seats like Werriwa, McMahon etc i actually feel a party like Family First would have greater appeal to religious ethnic voters who maybe socially conservative. A good article below about One Nation voters.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

Nimalan
ON only won a seat in Northern Victoria in 2022 because of Group Voting tickets. They only had 3.72% of the vote – the Shooters were higher. With the exception of the Latrobe and Hunter Valleys, they have had very little ongoing traction outside Queensland.

@Nimalan, One Nation does do better with Eastern and Southern Europeans (aka. Wogs) that resides in working class communities (like the ones you mentioned) as they are white and very socially conservative and religious christian (mostly orthadox) conservative so they are not bothered and many even support Pauline Hanson’s white nationalist and anti-muslim rhetoric. Afterall, I heard there are a lot are anti-vaxxers in the community and much of the anti-vax rally attendees are ‘wogs’ evident from the flags.

@nimalna yep that cost my friend a spot in parliament and me a staff job

@ Redistributed, good point about Group voting
@ Marh, interesting i do think that many ethnic Europeans have largely been accepted by the Anglo-Celtic Majority and no longer sensitive about racial/ethnic issues. I sometimes wonder if Middle Eastern Christians (Assyrians/Copts) may one day follow the same path and move rightwards politically. One thing that may help Labor is that may of these communities as they become more upwardly mobile move to other areas. For example in areas like St Albans, Maltese & Croations have moved and been replaced by Vietnamese, Africans etc. There is an interesting book called Working towards Whiteness explaining how White ethnics got accepted by Anglo Society in the US link below

https://www.amazon.com/Working-Toward-Whiteness-Americas-Immigrants/dp/0465070744

@ John
Are you referring to the Libs missing out an upper house seat in Victoria due to ONP?

@nimalan SFF. we suspected and raue did a post on it that if it werent for Group voting John Knight would have got the last spot instead of Ricki-lee tyrell

Josh*

QLD Labor has announced its first candidate for an opposition held seat. Jo Justo in Ninderry.

@Votante “The 2022 federal election was interesting in that ON’s best performances outside QLD were in for Western suburbs of Sydney and outer suburbs of Melbourne. They include mortgage belt areas. Ironically, many of these electorates have a high percentage of people who are Muslim and/or Asian, despite Hanson saying in her maiden speeches “swamped by Asians/Muslims”.”

You only really develop strong feelings towards or against people when the proportion of that group that directly come into contact with you increases. So areas that have negative experiences (or positive experiences) of different cultures tend to impact voting patterns. This is even stronger when new populations cluster together to create a critical mass e.g. Western Sydney.

Where a population is close to invisible culturally then they tend to fly below the radar e.g the number of Japanese and Taiwanese immigrants in Mansfield. They tend to get “drowned out” by the more numerous Chinese and Indian diaspora.

Many years ago, certainly in Brisbane, the split was between the Catholics and the Protestants/Anglicans. That’s pretty much been washed away now.

@Nether Portal The reason why candidates are thin on the ground for the ALP is entirely a problem of their own making. For years the branch members have been sidelined and the only way to get preselected is to have the backing of both a faction and a union. Nepotism has also had a significant sway over candidates as well.

Here’s a story about the ALP campaign in Whitsunday in 2020. After the LNP disaster with Jason Costigan, Amanda Camm was preselected as the LNP candidate. Tracy Cameron was the ALP candidate – good local person, small business owner and local ALP branch President. Definitely a contender in a fairly odd seat where the result was completely unpredictable.

However Premier Palaszczuk did a flying visit three months before the election and apparently had a major fit because Amanda Camm had signs and billboards out while the ALP had almost none (the reason for that was mostly due to a HQ stuff up). The day after John Battams and a number of others in the ALP hierarchy called Tracy and told her the Premier wanted her out. Fairly forcefully too. So she stood down as the candidate and about half of the members from the two ALP Whitsunday branches resigned. They didn’t have that many in the first place, so neither branch ended up being constitutional.

At that point they realised that it’s never wise to sack someone before you have their replacement ready. Which they didn’t. I am very reliably informed that Cabinet panicked because not having a candidate tends to decrease your chances of winning a seat. What followed next was everyone ringing around trying to find someone to fill the spot. Eventually they got around to asking the Member for Greenslopes, Joe Kelly, whose sister Angie Kelly was the principal of Cannonvale State School. The drafted her as their candidate (first of all she had to join the Labor Party) and proceeded to lose dismally.

In the meantime Tracy Cameron backed the KAP candidate, bringing over a dozen former ALP members to Katter. About 6 months ago Angie Kelly became the principal of Ironside State School in Brisbane. So the ALP have trashed their campaign locally, have no candidate ready to go and have created a lot of ill-will along the way.

And that’s why the ALP is finding it hard to get candidates.

Legalize Cannabis Qld have announced 12 candidates in Buderim, Bundaberg, Burleigh, Coomera, Gaven, Hervey Bay, Ipswich, Logan, Murrumba, Nicklin, Pumicestone & Redlands.

Caleb, very interesting, most of those 12 divisions will be close enough to be decided on Legalise Cannabis Preferences (and likely to command a good chunk of the primary votes too I imagine). They might end up being a headache and potentially even an election spoiler for Labor depending on how LCP preferences inevitably split. They could however help direct potentially disenchanted and disengaged voters back to Labor via preferences. LCP might also quell both One Nation’s and the Greens’ expectations for a double-digit primary-vote in some of these divisions. In LCP’s absence, the Greens and ONP would be otherwise fighting over the position of being last excluded in the count. One Nation would probably be doing quite well for themselves in a division like Logan typically too.

At the Fadden By-Election in 2023 which wholly contains the state division of Coomera and includes a touch of Gaven, LCP achieved 7.24% of the vote, beating the Greens. Their preferences were split three ways amongst Labor (42.15%), One Nation (32.03%) and LNP (25.81%).

More recently, at the Ipswich West By-Election, which unsurprisingly sits beside the division of Ipswich, Legalise Cannabis Party were able to achieve a higher vote One Nation, with 14.57% of the primary votes. LCP’s preferences split two ways: 51.6% to ALP and 48.4% to the LNP. This by-election probably wasn’t a very typical election to draw from though.

At the 2020 state election, LCP ran already in Gaven and gave us an indication with how Legalise Cannabis Party splits fours way between ONP (25.1%), ALP (28.9%), LNP (14.2%) and GRN (31.9%).

At the 2022 federal election, LCP ran in Longman which overlaps Pumicestone, with a modest 7.24%. Greens edged slightly in front and ONP ultimately were the last excluded in the count before two-candidate preferred. This gave us another four way split in preferences which fell as follows: ALP (21.2%), GRN (34.21%), ONP (31.82%), LNP (12.84%).

The only consistent trend in the three and four way splits is that the LNP do not find themselves with much of these votes directed to them. Another observation is that ONP and GRN typically find themselves with a solid chunk of their preferences too. But in the case of a two way contest, it ended up pretty evenly-split between ALP and LNP.

A new YouGov poll has been released which continues to show that Queensland Labor is headed for a landslide defeat at the state election in October.

The LNP leads Labor 56-44% on a two-party-preferred basis. The YouGov poll last October had the LNP leading 52-48%. On primary votes, Labor is down three from the last poll to 27%, the LNP is up three to 44%, the Greens are up two to 15% and One Nation is up two to 10%. David Crisafulli leads Steven Miles as preferred Premier 40-27%, compared to the previous poll showing his lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk being 37-25%. Steven Miles is at 25% approval and 47% disapproval, while David Crisafulli is at 40% approval (up three) and 26% disapproval (steady).

The 56.0% TPP vote for the LNP would represent a 9.2% swing to the LNP from the last state election in 2020. This would be enough to deliver them a majority government and it would put Steven Miles in danger of losing his own seat of Murrumba. Murrumba has a margin of 11.3%, so a 9.2% swing against Labor would put it into the marginal category (reducing his margin to just 2.1%).

I think we’ve had enough polling now to make some seat predictions. Later today I’ll make a map showing my predictions for what might happen.