Queensland 2024

Does anyone know when the rolls close for the Queensland election? I can not seem to locate the date on the Queensland Electoral Commission website

@patreon can be found here
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/2024-state-general-election
under election dates

this is a post from 2015 so still shuold be semi relevant
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-08/when-do-the-rolls-close-for-the-queensland-election/9388550
rolls close 4 days after the writs are issued but you can enrol to vote up until 6pm of the day of the election

the day before the election i should have said

There’s a good chance of a record 4 Asian-Australian candidates being elected to QLD parliament next month, which is pretty historic given there’s only been 2 in history prior to this, those being Michael Choi in Capalaba from 2001-12 and Anne Warner in Kurilpa from 1983-86.
*Pinky Singh, LNP for Mansfield
*Bisma Asif, Labor for Sandgate
*Holstein Wong, Greens for McConnel
*Nelson Savanh, LNP for Ferny Grove
And as well as this, an African-Australian candidate in Pumicestone – Ariana Doolan for the LNP.

@Laine I swear there were more than four running for major parties.

@Nether Portal yeah there are several more LNP and Greens candidates but they’re in seats like Algester (LNP), Inala (LNP/GRN) and Stretton (GRN) which are unlikely to fall. Someone else I didn’t mention is Clio Padayachee in Miller for the LNP who might have a chance if the swing is huge enough.

Singh is a seat shopper, doubt she will win. didn’t she run in Griffith or McConnel in previous elections? Voters hate perennial candidates

New newspoll 55-45 to the lnp

@Daniel T Mansfield will fall. She ran in McConnel once (in 2020). She never ran in Griffith. Perennial candidates have to run at least three or four times.

@daniel not really look Kate Ali cupper in Mildura or Susan Templeton in Macquarie. If at first you don’t succeed. Try and try and try again

They ran in the same seats John, Seat shopping means going around dif seats.

@daniel like kk

Townsville Bulletin came out with KAP seeking NQ State Talks if it holds the balance of power.
https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TBWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.townsvillebulletin.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnorth-queensland-state-kap-wants-talks-at-forefront-of-potential-lnp-election-deal%2Fnews-story%2F4ab7fb17d0a96d7197db68e96aadd10d&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

John, And she didn’t win did she?

Caleb, KAP cannot demand talks without a referendum. Splitting a state up without a referendum is a no-go. Methinks Katter is only saying this because they suspect an LNP majority.

To be fair she was a well off white woman trying to ruin a multicultural working class seat. Thats why she lost.

While we are on the subject of seat shopping why don’t I mention the current premier Steven miles. Ran for Ryan in 2010. Won Mount coo-tha in 2015 and when that got abolished in 2017 moved to murrumba

@John Mount Coot-Tha is in Ryan so that’s not really surprising. They obviously saw promise in him when it was abolished and Murrumba was lined up as a relatively safe seat to transfer to.

If you go through state election results over the years you’ll see some familiar names pop up. Bruce Saunders and Christian Rowan ran for Keppel and Gympie in 1998 and 2004 respectively, before both getting elected in 2015 as the MPs for Maryborough and Moggill. Rowan was actually a National in the 2000s prior to the merger, which is interesting given he represents a seat that they couldn’t take from the Libs even during their peak in the mid-1980s.

@laine by promise I think you mean had the right connections. I.e union mates etc

Curtis Pitt thre retiring member for Mulgrave is the last standing member from the Labor 7 from the 2012 election. There are now no members left from before 2015

John, technically Cameron Dick previously served in the seat of Greenslopes (2009-2012) before losing and then coming back having moved to Woodridge.

Also, Grace Grace (McConnel, formerly Brisbane Central), Di Farmer (Bulimba) and Mark Ryan (Morayfield) also lost their seats in the 2012 election but then returned to win their old seats back in 2015.

So technically they have only been there since 2015 I’m talking about noone being left from the drubbing of 2012. Who’s the longest serving member now? From what I can tell it’s Shane Knuth. Can’t seem to find anything on qld parliament website

Il correct that it’s Fiona Simpson since 1992

Here’s my map of predictions: https://jmp.sh/DkAsTa2x

Not much change from my last map of predictions, just a little bit better for Labor in the city. I’ve given Labor Bulimba and Miller this time (last time I gave Bulimba to the LNP and Miller to the Greens). I’ve also given Mirani to KAP simply because both Labor and One Nation preferences will favour KAP over the LNP.

The map still shows a landslide win for the LNP, with the LNP and KAP sweeping all of regional Queensland except Gladstone, Labor’s only regional seat left. The LNP also swept the major cities of Gold Coast, Townsville, Cairns and Toowoomba, and the only seat not held by the LNP on the Sunshine Coast is Noosa (held by independent Sandy Bolton).

All but three of Labor’s remaining seats are connected to each other. The three exceptions are Gladstone, Nudgee and Sandgate. This goes to show that Labor’s base is leaving Labor at this election, with the only region voters still stick with them being the working-class, culturally diverse suburbs of southwestern Brisbane (the Queensland equivalent of Western Sydney and Northern and Western Melbourne).

This is the best case scenario for the LNP: https://jmp.sh/C55MhXyr

In that scenario, I’ve given the LNP a couple of seats I gave to Labor in my predicted scenario:

* In Greater Brisbane: Bulimba, Greenslopes, Nudgee, Sandgate, Stretton, Toohey
* Outside Brisbane: Gladstone, Ipswich

I’ve also given the LNP two extra crossbench seats: Mirani and Noosa.

In that scenario, Labor would be reduced to just seven seats: Algester, Bundamba, Inala, Jordan, Miller, Waterford and Woodridge. That would be equally as bad as their record loss in 2012. But they would perform much better in Brisbane than in 2012, but much worse outside of Brisbane where they would be virtually wiped out if you include Ipswich as part of Greater Brisbane.

I think that’s a bit too optimistic I think Labor will hold a minimum 22 seats and maybe as many as 30. They won’t hold any regional seats except Gladstone and maybe Cook but that’s a toss up for me.

55 to 45 is a trend slightly back to Labor. Still think.alp will hold Maryborough and lnp will fail to win Mirani. A slight further win back to Labor will make this a standard election rather than a further Landslide.
Think John and Np are getting a little carried away with their wishes ..this is easy to do

53% alp last time 55/45 suggest 8 to 9% swing..assume range of swing is +_3% then 5 to 12% swing. These sums suggest Gavan may be retained

@mick 55-45 represents an 8.2% swing. So my prediction would be valid. 55-45 is probly at the lower end of a landslide. I’d say 55% or greater is still considered a landslide

@mick gaven is held on only 7.8% so that’s well within the range

You also have to look at the swing by region and specifically by seat. The Townsville seats will swing much more to the LNP than the inner-city seats. Cook is a weird seat but it includes Weipa and Cooktown which should swing to the LNP so I’ve put it as an LNP gain.

I’ll also make a map for the best case scenario for Labor, which would see them lose seats like Bancroft and Logan but retain seats like Lytton and Murrumba.

Remember, nobody thought the CLP could win seats like Casuarina, Sanderson and Wanguri but they did. We thought they could win back Daly but they didn’t. Some even thought they could win Arafura and Arnhem but they didn’t.

@np I had Arafura and Arnhem as Labor retains. It was obvious that Labor was gonna do well in the bush seats but bad in Darwin although I didn’t expect it to be that bad

@John what made it obvious? I never picked them to gain any Northern Suburbs seats.

@the two by election wins in Daly and Arafura. The fact they didnt contest mulka and that most of Labor issues were in the city and AS. I didn’t see the loss of those ultra safe seats either but wasn’t taking into account that 20% in the nt is only 1200 votes

@ john the point I tried to make was it was possible that Labor retains Gavan

@mick doubtful. The lnp haven a star candidate and Labor has a housing minister failing at providing housing there are literally people sleeping rough 100m from a billboard advertising her reflection. Good luck

I still have no clue about the strip of seats from Mansfield-Springwood-Macalister, even though all of them are presumably very different.
Also unsure about Capalaba, Gaven and Miller.

I have basically finished calling most other seats.
I think Labor will retain Cook and Gladstone but lose everything else in the regions (and Sunshine Coast). I also think LNP will regain Mirani.
I am however exercising a bit of caution in Mt Ommaney, Lytton, Logan and Bancroft which I expect Labor retain but with possibly an above-average swing against them.My reasoning is that for the first 2 because of Council Elections, and the latter 2 because there are no trains there.

@Daniel T Let’s see if that’s correct. Steven Miles is the current Member for Murrumba, but in 2017 he was the Member for Mount Coot-tha between 2015 and 2017. In 2010 he was the ALP Left candidate for the Federal seat of Ryan and before that ran for preselection unsuccessfully in the State electorate of Pine Rivers as the Labor Right factional candidate.

Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong was filled by the ALP Left candidate Jo Briskey of Brisbane, in a tight vote of 11-9.

@Everyone else – I think seats like Sandgate, Mt Ommaney and Nudgee are a bit of a stretch for the LNP. I’d definitely put Gaven, Pumicestone and Mansfield in the decided pile, while seats like Springwood and Stafford are very tight.

On a local level the ALP is obviously reallocating volunteers out of Mansfield for Saturday morning roadsides. A few of the local community groups are also getting confident enough to start publicly calling out previous election promises by the sitting Member as well.

2012 election was almost 64/36 lnp’s way. This is close to 9% better than the latest poll. All things being equal this suggests a better result. The marginal seats< 6% would mostly be lost. But other seats could be retained depending.. how many I don't know.. if most provincial cities seats are lost then more Brisbane seats must be retained for the sums to match. Also if the swings are larger in currently lnp seats then this does nor contribute to extra lnp seats.

When living on Bancroft I caught the train from Rothwell and quite a few people did. So there is no train in the seat is probably not the greatest reasoning. I’m also aware of others who caught the train from the Caboolture line.

On Townsville, the LNP thought they had seats in the bag there during the last three elections, running locally on youth crime. The fact they didn’t win suggests something about whether the issue resonates as much as they think and/or also about the LNP’s campaign capabilities. They should win those seats this time, but I predict a smaller than average swing compared to other regional seats. That said, maybe the issue has gone on so long that it’s finally actually swing opinion and Labor’s vote bottoms out.

LNP running advertising in the Brisbane market which features candidates from Pumicestone, Aspley, Waterford and a few others speaking then Crisafulli at the end. Interesting tactic to increase candidate recognition, but also to present a new team (instead of Newman era faces).

Back to Bancroft Logan Murrumba. Those seats are among what is past the normal high tide mark. If the king tide comes in and washes them up as well it’s a bonus. The real effort should be in Redcliffe, Pine Rivers, Springwood, Aspley, Mansfield, Keppel, Gaven. The stuff that builds a solid majority after you’ve picked up Pumicestone, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Barron River, Redlands, Caloundra, Nicklin, and one or two of the Townsville seats.

James McGrath lives rent free in my head

Labor has been caught changing the colour on their ads, likely to trick voters.

Labor are using purple instead of their traditional colour, red. This is an obvious tactic to trick voters into voting for them, but it’s not a very good tactic.

If they wanted to be really smart about it they’d get maroon signs (same colour as the ECQ signs) and then put them in a foreign language to trick voters into voting for them, but I guess the Liberals already did that in Chisholm and Kooyong in 2019.

Speaking of the Chinese vote, why in NSW is the Chinese vote mostly Liberal while in Victoria and Queensland they tend to be less inclined to vote one way and can swing? Bennelong was barely won by Labor even with a popular MP in John Alexander retiring, so if he ran again he would’ve won, yet Chisholm and Moreton were easy wins for Labor. The Liberals did well in Moreton in 2019 because of the Chinese vote in places like Sunnybank and Sunnybank Hills and didn’t do well in 2022 because of the rise of the Greens in the inner-city parts.

After looking at the list for all 93 LNP candidates, there are at least 8 non-incumbent candidates that have varying degree of baggage to them in the seats of Cairns, Cook, Ferny Grove, Macalister, Mansfield, Oodgeroo, Redcliffe & Stretton. I’m not saying they’ll not win/lose all these seats, but they’ll definitely have muted/below average swings to the LNP. the closest thing to compare this to would be the 2022 US Midterms where numerous Republican candidates failed to win key seats/race in what was considered to be a red wave because of their controversies.

@Caleb Cairns will be above average and I’ve told you three times now Oodgeroo is an LNP seat.

Also, to compare it to the 2022 US midterm elections we have to see a result first. In those elections MAGA candidates with extreme views had swings against them (e.g while Marjorie Taylor-Greene was easily re-elected in Georgia’s 14th district with 65.9% of the vote she suffered an –8.8% swing against her).

@NP – I also must tell you that the sitting LNP MP in Oodgeroo is retiring. Caleb is referring to Amanda Stoker, who is the new LNP candidate for Oodgeroo, who certainly does take some level of baggage to the election.

@NP, LNP in Queensland probably doesn’t traditionally as well for CALD Communities compared to Libs in other states given the perception of being close One Nation and strong Regional Percentages in QLD meant more campaign resources were placed on regional area hence probably less CALD Members in the LNP. In fact, LNP supported a motion (non-binding though) to ban Hijabs for girls under 10 in 2017.

@James I’m aware, but twice before he mistook it for a Labor seat.

@Marh and I guess CALD communities are more spread out outside Sydney and Melbourne too.

Interestingly I think the Gold Coast has the largest Japanese community in Australia, at least in terms of percentages.

@Nether Portal I never said it was a Labor Seat

@Caleb you said at times you think the LNP will fall short in some seats and you listed Oodgeroo as one of them.