Moggill – QLD 2020

Christian Rowan is hardworking, should be safe – LNP hold.

I’d imagine the LNP should hold this easily, however the Greens should come second probably with a similar 2CP to last time.

Haven’t seen much evidence that Michael Berkman’s popularity has bled to neighbouring seats. Christian Rowan isn’t even a full time MP but absent an independent wildcard like the council election, LNP should hold.

This is one seat I mentioned on Maiwar that most didn’t consider at first as a Greens target, as most seem to be ALP held seats, so this one flies under the radar. One of 7 seats where Greens polled 20%+ at the 2017 Election, if there is a swing on against ALP, this seat will surely fall to greens on prefs. I consider this more of a target than others with 20%+ just due to the high ALP vote in other electorates and mid-range lib vote. I don’t see it falling this time, but quite possibly 2024 if the Greens keep targeting this seat (first to hold Maiwar and gain South Brisbane).

Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

There are two things I know Moggill for, the ferry and Bruce Flegg. Some things are just etched into memory.

The Greens were not out in force here this morning like they were last weekend – same in Maiwar.

LNP roadsides continue to have strong reception.

Obviously with no comment since 12 Sp not much interest in seat. Travelling Outbound from Western Freeway and return Corflute numbers Overwhelmingly LNP with a few Greens it not a single ALP one.
Great majority of this electorate may be socially green targets but they are economically LNP through and through. The chances of this seat voting Green are very limited. Whilst they have the appearance of wealth they are highly mortgaged with $1/2 Million mortgages.The prospect of having to sell up and move to Dinmore would scare them out of any pretence of Green level taxation.

The 2018 Victorian state election showed that socially left but economically right voters are happy to swing at state elections where taxes aren’t on the table.

Now that the Greens have re-nominated for Clayfield, and with a heavy hitter at that, I think they will start talking up their prospects of winning Liberal held seats a bit more over coming weeks, but it may be too little too late. Lawson McCane has been active but he hasn’t featured much in the central messaging of Qld Greens.

@John
Andrew Jackson has summed up this seat pretty well – high taxes won’t play well here, and this is an election where taxes are well and truly on the table (Labor’s history the last 5yrs & its the only way Greens could achieve their promises).

I don’t know but there’s a lot of commentary going “oh, it happened here, so surely it will happen there” and that’s happening every time and each time the unexpected happens.

Greens prospects will still get talked up in the public eye but actually, I get the feeling they have been complacent & are scared – Maiwar LNP signs have been getting vandalised & I don’t think its just bored youths.

Something feels different these last couple of weeks – everyone expects Labor to get another term, but I really think there is a real chance people will feel safe to vote LNP but then enough people do that actually we change the government… repeat of 2015.

Corflute dammage is a cost that every campaign committee has to wear. If the Corflute is well sited it is worth replacing. If stolen a second time it is worth staking out the location with camera and company. ALP in Longman once had photos of another candidates vehicle removing corflutes. I urged them to release to Media . If they had they may have even retained the seat.

I reported last state election the disappearance of all parties Corflutes off Beacmere Rd and the appearance of a single minor party’s corflutes in same night. This was witnessed by a contributor to this site and details were passed onto two major parties.

We need to recognise that this is theft and those caught doing it need punishing which should be included as an offence under Electoral Act making it impossible for the guilty to be a member of a political party or to stand for parliament. Any political party involved should lose party registration and all signatories registered officers agents barred from being a member of a party or receiving public funding. Hit them where it hurts.

BJA from Ryan

I can categorically say the Greens campaign in Maiwar is not vandalising LNP signs.

I’m not aware of how many signs have been vandalised but I would say that the Greens can’t control their supporters. I would urge any potential vandal to instead front up to a doorknocking session for Berkman, far braver, fairer, and more effective in helping him be retained.

Bizarre for you to claim the Greens are “complacent.” What do you think the outcome at the council election 7 months ago in Paddington and Walter-Taylor Wards was about? (+11.5 and +11.9 Green primary, -3.2 and -12.7 LNP primary, and +5.1 and +11.8 Green 2PP respectively) The Greens have absolutely been attempting to entrench the seat.

From my experience it is not campaign managers who steal signs but rather the extremist supporters.

Vandalising of signs with a political message may be a different matter.

signage now is at pilfered height rather than stuck up on telegraph poles. Removal from telegraph piles was normally done by whacking with a long piece of wood meaning that in past damage was pre planned.

Most dammage now I suspect is spur of moment.

During Longman By election I alerted One Nation candidate to a very large pile of his corflutes Sitting in a field in Morayfield.

Corflutes for minor parties cost about $2.50 per sign so this is not a huge financial loss to any party and replacing them may well energise their supporters.

Corflutes are far more important to minor parties and independents than they are to major Parties. Great majority of voters turn up on polling day expecting to be able to vote for ALP or Coalition but not having a clue about many minor party candidates.

I have noticed that ALP appear to be placing far less importance on Corflutes than they normally do. It would not be cost in their case I am expecting something dramatic to appear overnight State wife as part of a managed campaign.

ALP from my experience have far better managed campaigns than LNP or minors. In part this is party discipline and trade union support.
LNP are not disciplined and minor parties do not have workers.
Two areas where LNP seem to outperform ALP normally are:
Postal vote promotion
Polling booth midnight preparation.

2012 LNP literally wrapped every polling booth in what was then Murrumba with plastic bunting and then complained that other parties were covering their signs by placing A frames outside gates.

BJA it was not complacency in 2015 that resulted in the defeat of Newman but Newman’s government style. We may not have wanted ALP but we definitely wanted Newman out in tears.
In 50 years of voting Only two occasions when I rejoiced at party leaders defeat were 1975 and 2015.
I never had the hatred of Hawke, Beattie, Goss, Sneddon, Ahern, Springborg, Tom Burns, Cooper or Rudd ( although Keating came close) that I had of Whitlam and Newman.
If ALP had any sense they would be have photos up of Frecklington in close proximity to Newman.

Yep, definitely wasn’t accusing official Greens of vandalising them, sorry if anyone was offended. And re Greens complacency, thats just what it looks like to me as an outsider.

I was talking about 2 different things – Greens complacency, I meant Maiwar and repeat of 2015, I meant in general. Newman wasn’t complacent but the result was change of govt was unexpected. Safe to vote against with expectation of no change in govt was the feeling to explain 2015 and I really feel it could happen again.

Yeah, Council election results were exceptional circumstances and Greens/LNP were only credible options for Council. I do not know so I only have limited view of appearance of Greens mindset.

Labor has been trying to tie Deb to Newman with pictures of them together but, rightly so, it doesn’t stick.

I have heard that Rowan is a good member, and this area, even though it is becoming more and more green, is still a Liberal area. Libs should hold this. I think it will be a close race between Greens and Labor for 2nd place. Previously said that Berkman’s personal vote hasn’t radiated into Moggill. Whilst it may have into Cooper (which I still think will be a Labor hold) I don’t think it has here. However, this electorate appears to be wealthy and socially progressive leaning. Greens will not win this seat. Maybe in a couple of elections time but not this time. Should be easy Lib hold.

While I think the chances of a change are very small you cannot rule this seat out as a Greens surprise capture.

Thing is i suspect there IS a serious fall off in LNP vote in Brisbane and this will not go to the ON or PHON. So it will probably go to the Greens and labor. Now assuming a 5% swing from the LNP in Brisbane but adding 2% for incumbency, the LNP ends with about 45.7%. If labor gains 2% of the LNP fall picks up say 1 from what was the consumer rights group last time but loses say 4% to the Greens, then we could have something like LNP 45.5, ALP 24.5%, Green 30%.

In this case ALP preferences would go strongly to the Greens and they will get over the line.

So if there is a Brisbane anti LNP swing of 5% or more this seat swings into Green contention. It will not go ALP.

The incumbent has already had his “sophomore surge,” don’t know why incumbency would give him a +2% compared to 2017.

It’s a seat the Greens will one day win if they continue on the current trajectory, perhaps as soon as 2024, but I do not think they have knocked on many doors in Moggill this campaign (they’re sandbagging Maiwar and going for Cooper, McConnel, and South Brisbane instead).

Christian Rowan got the opposite of a sophomore surge – a 3% swing to Labor. That’s on top of the LNP losing 3% more in 2015 than they gained in 2012. The LNP vote is already at a pretty low ebb here.

Compulsory preferences make the LNP 2pp a bit lower than it used to be – the 2017 primary votes are pretty similar to 2009, but the LNP margin then was 6% higher. Labor would’ve probably won in 2001 with CPV.

There’s a suggestion in the Guardian Christian Rowan is a bad fit for this seat. The former National who aligns with the Christian Right tends to go against community expectations with his socially conservative views in this socially moderate seat. Rowan also made comments that he supported a public debate on reinstating the death penalty in 2015.

Rowan will likely hang on to the seat, but it will likely be despite of him rather then because of him. As mentioned his sophomore surge was a 3% swing against him. Enough said.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight

There is so much I want to say but I feel there is no point.

Given many expectations are for swings against the LNP in Brisbane, I look forward to LNP exceeding expectations then!

Winning enough seats statewide to form minority government, let alone majority, would be an even sweeter surprise.

There is no point BJA because I guarantee you will be disappointed on election night. Just be grateful you have an LNP member mate. Now is not the time for change in the midst of a global pandemic and they are yet to convince people like me otherwise which they still have not. And besides I already have voted. The LNP may get a swing to them in this area but I can assure you this seat is not key because Labor won’t win here unless it is 2001 or 2004. The fact that this became a marginal seat last time proves how poor and unpopular the LNP have been and ran their campaigns at a statewide level. What works federally does NOT work at a state level, and I am guessing you still haven’t learnt anything from the Newman years. Still LMAO that Newman was a 1 term premier.

Like I said, no point

(Ie. in engaging on here)

Dunno why people are giving BJA shit but I appreciate his perspective on this seat.

As far as the point about LNP preselecting conservatives in moderate seats: I’d question just how socially liberal this seat actually is to start with, I wonder whether it’s really all that representative of the federal seat of Ryan which is where I presume some people are drawing conclusions from (the vast majority of Ryan’s inner city suburbs aren’t included in Moggill). But the local member’s social views haven’t been widely publicized in this election, so how much are the voters here really thinking about it anyway? My guess, which is completely uneducated, to be fair, as I don’t live anywhere near there, but my guess is that most voters are treating this election presidentially like the vast majority of Queensland voters are. Maybe a further swing against the sitting member reflecting general dissatisfaction with the LNP in Brisbane, but more than 5%? Doubt it.

Furtive
Not really the case. Mogill is your leafy green outer suburb, semi rural but rich semi rural. That is why it i Liberal but also why it is greenish.

It is also on the direct route to UQ so there is a higher than average number of academics. I was told when I first moved to Brisbane that Kenmore was where the new professional immigrants from Sydney and Melbourne settled – bit of a stereotype but still truish.

Labor has very little chance here but the Greens do, if there is a big collapse in the Liberal vote. For example those disappointed with Deb F but still not happy to vote ALP may well switch to vote Green, together with some ALP voters who dislike the stand on mining.

As for the views on the candidate, I think it is clear that there is turmoil in the LNP on these issues. A LNP boothworker told me the choice of a super religious candidate in Maiwar was foolish, and I am guessing the same is true of the Mogill member if that Guardian article is correct.

That leafy belt of academic and professionals which includes all of Maiwar, lots of Cooper and lots of Mogill is probably not good territory for religious types, which are most likely to be found in more aspirational suburbs. i think perhaps Mogill does include several of these eg Bellbowie, but probably not enough to overcome the more progressive vibe of Kenmore and Upper Brookfield.

My view here is that a swing against the LNP of 5% combined with a swing from ALP to Greens as a sort of protest could deliver this to the greens. On the other hand if the LNP vote swings directly to ALP then the Green preferences will not be enugh to push the ALP over the line. The greens i gather are putting their effort to Maiwar, Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes and Miller as well as South Brisbane. I rate their chances in Mogill higher than Miller or Greenslopes and probably higher than McConnell and Cooper.

I strongly agree with Maverick’s analysis. Nothing much to see here this year, but it’s absolutely a long term Greens target seat. In two cycles the Greens ought to be firmly into second on primaries, and at that point it’s game on to flip the seat from the LNP.

Where conservative liberals gain is that supporters of minor parties are less active. There are people I think of as DLP helping Rowan in this seat.
However in city seats the local member is not a significant factor in determining party a person votes for.
The battle in reality is between Palaszczuk and Frecklington.
Moggill is well and truly on side of Frecklington. Greens are campaigning but I suspect their enthusiasm will not impact on voters.
It is much easier to worry about Koalas when kids dinner and electricity bill are not daily worries. However I suspect that ALP taxation and supposed death duties will have greater impact on those with something to lose than on those with nothing. Libs $300 motor car registration rebate will have less impact here than In outer suburbs but the benefit will be greater.
I regularly travel from Burpengary to Bellbowrie and two factors are immediately noticible in Mogggil Rd, Mercedes and BMW’s replace Holden’s and Utes and petrol prices which would result in Service Station going broke at Burpengary. 40c difference per Litre not uncommon and excess of 20 c per litre normal.
A lot of working from
Home during COVID 19 but this is not difficult when you have large houses and good IT.
There appears to be significant Indo-Pakistani Community .
Definite Liberal retain .

Interesting. Thanks guys.

Andrew
Mogill is a highly educated electorate and therefore not so concerned with cost of living issues. Also much less likely to be influenced by the Palmer death duties stuff – the people of Mogill can afford to ask their accountants not the Courier mail. In the federal election Ryan people were not affected by the franking credits stuff because they understood it. Recall that there was a swing to ALP in Ryan.

Now I have not been much to Mogill but the residents there must pass by Maiwar where they are active.

If you look at most of the booths in the electorate in the last state and local elections greens by and large outpolled ALP. That makes it ripe for a green win if the times are right.

if you look at the ward of Pullenvale in the last Council election the greens came in second but there were 2,000 exhausted ALP votes and also 3500 for an independent that exhausted. If 3/4 of those went to the Greens (certain for the ALP votes, less clear for the Richards ones), it would be a very close run thing in that ward.

It’s worth emphasising that Labor is NOT proposing a “death tax” and they weren’t at the last federal election either. Labor has explicitly ruled this out but Clive Palmer just keeps running these lies anyway.

Moggill and Clayfield have me the most interested. I think the biggest swing to Labor will be from small-l Liberals and these seats are in the frame. Christian Rowan has been that face of some very socially conservative pushes that won’t go down particularly well here.

The Greens seem far better positioned than Labor to come 2nd and win on preferences, but the exclusion order might go the other way and I expect this seat to have surprisingly weak Green -> ALP flows if that happens.

I think both Moggill and Clayfield are too close to call 3 cornered contests, with Labor having the edge in Clayfield (Bartlett is too little too late) and Greens having the edge here

The assumption that small-l liberals will swing to Labor can only be based on the assumption their starting point is voting LNP at the last state election – I think that is a massive call and not necessarily true.

Christian has not been renowned for any controversial campaigns whilst an MP, let alone spearheading any campaigns – to suggest such from time before parliament is trawling through very obscure articles then. He is just a diligent worker who turns up to ALL the AGMs, school fetes, markets etc…

Andrew Jackson has summed up this seat most accurately & fyi Andrew, we call it “Kenmore, pay more”.

Prediction: LNP Retain

BJA thanks for kind words. I always start looking at the last election figures and then try and envisage the voters in any election I am commenting on.

Y’all just have to look at the Greens vote from the “North-West” and “South” dots on the first map in this page. Unless, the Greens climb up to mid 20s/low 30s there, they are not gonna win this seat. Labour would have a better chance at winning this seat than the Greens mainly because of Brookfield and Moggill atleast in the short-term.

LNP retain

Still an interesting seat. I’m expecting a close 3 cornered contest. I don’t see the Greens losing their Pullenvale Ward votes and it doesnt take that much of an LNP to ALP and ALP to Green swing to end up with something resembling Prahran 2014

John

I agree. I suspect that Mogill could be the surprise of the night. The one the pundits did not see coming.

Soy Boy the LNP negative swing in Kenmore and Chappel Hill and Brookfield will go heavily to the greens NOT ALP. This will be less the case in Mogill and Karana Downs. i expect the Mogill primary to be something like LNP 42, ALP 27, Green 28, ON 3, with ON preferences tiping ALP ahead of Greens.

But it will be very close.

What is the geographic reason and historical reason as to why This seat and Ryan has the ”Bird head” on the northwest part of the electorate? I also notice on the greater Brisbane map it has this. What is the historical reason behind this? (The area Northwest of Mt Nebo)

The short answer is that it’s following the Brisbane City Council boundary.

As to why it’s that line specifically, it appears to postdate the 1924 Council amalgamation, but also perhaps aligns with the national park boundary through England Creek.