The Tally Room

New federal pendulum after recent redistributions

Ben Raue - April 14, 2018

Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution...

SA redistribution live

Ben Raue - April 13, 2018

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12:30pm - That's all I'll be posting today. I'll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days. 12:26pm - On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has...

This week’s guides – April 13

Ben Raue - April 13, 2018

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Since I last posted about this, I've published eight more guides, with the links listed below: Pearce Hasluck Page Bonner Dawson Swan Leichhardt Cowper I’ll keep publishing one guide per day, and you can see the most recent guides on the right-hand sidebar or on...

Double Disillusion – the definitive analysis of the 2016 election out now

Ben Raue - April 12, 2018

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I'm very pleased to plug a new book that has just been published from ANU Press about the 2016 federal election entitled Double Disillusion. The book will be available in hard copy and is also available as a free download. This is the sixteenth edition in...

How should we be naming our federal seats?

Ben Raue - April 11, 2018

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Australian federal electorates follow a fairly unique naming convention. Australian state seats are usually named after geographic locations, which is also common for national electorates in Canada, the UK and New Zealand, while electoral districts in the United States are generally given numerical names. The...

ACT and Victorian redistributions – here are the maps

Ben Raue - April 10, 2018

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I've finished making Google Earth maps for the draft federal boundaries for Victoria and the ACT, and they are now available for download: ACT 2019 Victoria 2019 I've also turned them into interactive maps below the fold, which show the 2016 and 2019 boundaries (you...

ACT and VIC redistributions live

Ben Raue - April 6, 2018

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3:01 - This is my last comment for now. I'll be working on the boundary map over the weekend and plan to return by Monday with some more analysis. I just wanted to zoom out to the big picture. Two extra seats were created today,...

This week’s guides – April 5

Ben Raue - April 5, 2018

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Since last week's post, I have published seven more guides. This includes the next five most marginal federal seats, as well as one donor request each for the Victorian and NSW state elections. The federal seats are: Forde Flynn Robertson Banks Petrie I've also published guides...

Election guide update – some long weekend reading

Ben Raue - March 29, 2018

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As flagged earlier this week, I've now started work on the guides to the next federal election, along with the upcoming state elections in New South Wales and Victoria. I threw it open to those people donating to my Patreon to nominate seats they wished...

You tell me which seats to profile…

Ben Raue - March 27, 2018

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Now that the elections of March are mostly concluded, I've shifted my focus to my guides to the federal election and the state elections in Victoria and New South Wales. There won't be many elections in the next few months, so the front page of...