The Tally Room

Super Saturday election night live

Ben Raue - July 28, 2018

8:56 - Nothing has changed in Braddon, Longman and Mayo. The sitting MPs are on track for increased majorities. We are starting to get voting figures from the two western by-elections. At the moment the Greens are on track for a distant second in...

Super Saturday open thread

Ben Raue - July 28, 2018

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Polls have now opened in three of the five Super Saturday by-elections, and polls will open in Western Australia in just over an hour. Feel free to use this post as an open thread to discuss the day. I’ll be back with another post for...

Early voting stats point to turnout levels tomorrow

Ben Raue - July 27, 2018

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The AEC publishes daily updates of how many people have voted pre-poll, and have requested a postal ballot (which is not strictly the same as someone voting), and you can use this data to get a sense of the rates of early voting. We've had...

Seat of the day: Wagga Wagga

Ben Raue - July 21, 2018

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I've been steadily posting one seat guide every day. This week I've been posting guides to the respective Senate races, and then hopefully I'll follow those up with federal Victorian seat guides (although I may need to post a few Victorian state seats to...

Podcast #3 – Mayo, Longman and Senate party-hopping

Ben Raue - July 13, 2018

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In this episode I'm joined by Peter Brent and Amanda McCormack. We preview the by-elections in Mayo and Longman, and discuss the phenomenon of party-hopping in the Senate. The next episode is due the week before the by-elections but I've pushed it back to be...

Using 3PP data to understand three-cornered races

Ben Raue - July 11, 2018

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I was recently alerted to a new source of data on the AEC website. The AEC has always published the distribution of preferences at the seat level, as well as a more detailed dataset showing the flow of preferences from each candidate's primary votes...

ACT redistribution finalised

Ben Raue - July 3, 2018

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The final boundaries for the ACT were released today. There was one small change on the Bean/Canberra boundary in the Woden Valley area, where the remainder of the suburb of Phillip was moved from Canberra to Bean. This made no change to the margin. I've...

Podcast #2 – Braddon, Fremantle, Perth and how we name seats

Ben Raue - June 28, 2018

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In this episode I'm joined by Maiy Azize and Kevin Bonham. We preview the by-elections in Braddon, Fremantle and Perth, and discuss how we name electorates in light of Batman being renamed. In the news segment we discuss the results of the Darling Range...

Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

Ben Raue - June 25, 2018

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The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I've now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries. I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the...

Darling Range – results wrap

Ben Raue - June 24, 2018

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Yesterday's by-election in the Perth seat of Darling Range was undoubtedly a disappointment for Labor, with a swing of 9% after preferences, producing a reasonably comfortable victory for Liberal candidate Alyssa Hayden. A Reachtel poll last week predicted a 54-46 result in favour of Labor,...