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Hey Ben,
it shows how little attention the seat of Davidson gets, but your History section misses the fact that the Liberal MP elected in 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019 did not run in 2023 – it might have been a relatively late retirement after you had published your 2023 preview and you have just copied that text to here. I do think though that the comment that O’Dea was re-elected 4 times is a clear error.
Anyway, Matt Cross stood for the Liberal’s in 2023 and won election, though not without a 10% drop in the Liberal primary vote and an 11% 2PP swing. I think Davidson lost its status as the safest Liberal seat in the state. Matt Cross is reported to be a pretty decent bloke, but he may be under pressure in parts of this electorate from Liberal Party brand damage.
Just a question: You focus on the IND and GRN vote in the booth analysis section, when they were both well behind Labor (in 2023 at least). The variance in the Labor (or Liberal) vote across the electorate I think tells us more about the changing voting patterns of this area than a exploration of IND and GRN support does….
It is standard for me to focus on the 2CP measurement and only delve into the primary votes for parties that are outside the top two.
Yep this is just an error due to the fact that I don’t rewrite these sections from scratch every time, thanks for catching.
Ah, Yes – I see that now from other seats.
No problem.