Hornsby – NSW 2023

How can Matt Kean on Q&A say Judge Morrison at the ballot box when he isn’t likely to run ever again for political office? Makes absolutely no sense.

Just a thought, If the Liberals think it’s alright to parachute candidates from Eastern Melbourne to Western Melbourne at the recent state election. Perhaps Matt Kean can jump the gun and run at Cook at a by-election or the next federal election? Otherwise he can challenge Paul Fletcher in Bradfield for pre-selecrion or run for Mackellar or North Sydney.

Maybe Matt will lose Hornsby
But I think that is unlikely

On pre 2007 boundaries, it was conceivable that the Libs COULD lose Hornsby in a very bad year given margins of 2% in 1999 and 3% in 2003 (the latter with a mediocre LAB candidate) but once Hornsby itself was split between Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai and the western boundary pushed over Galston Gorge; its effectively mission impossible even given the changing electoral demographics in much of the core suburban parts of the seat.

Matty has never been backward in putting himself forward when it comes to getting his photo in the local media but he has been able to deliver some much needed “pork”, particularly with the Hornsby Hospital redevelopment and by staking out the public profile as a “party critic”, he’s most likely insulated himself against the worst of any backlash against the current government.

The current margin IS, very definitely, inflated but Kean will survive. A reversion to old boundaries and a less active successor could change the narrative.

Inflated margin is from..60.to
66% so 10% swing is possible
But I suspect unlikely. Heard
ELENI will campaign for him.. she can read out their texts
Ha ha

@Mick – That would get uber saucy.

In more serious terms, Looks like Kean will stay in Hornsby.

Which texts will be read @Mick. Will there be any board games 😀

Next Liberal state leader if they lose the election? That’s what their suggesting in Fairfax that he would be the front runner. Kean being deputy premier obviously makes sense in him being viewed as successor. But the success of the Teals in NSW in the last federal election. May also garner the view that a moderate Liberal may be the best way forward if they are defeated. The state Liberals in Victoria very reluctantly decided that electing John Pesutto as leader despite him winning by only one vote.

I read in Fairfax there was a suggestion Matt Kean could run for the late Jim Molan’s old federal senate seat. My presumption it would be on the basis if the NSW Liberals lose the next state election. Its considered unlikely though, and apparently he has downplayed the idea running for the federal senate despite having federal ambitions.

No suggestions that Matt could lose this seat. The corresponding federal seat was retained by the liberals. Presume…. liberal retain..maybe
Matt will be opposition leader after the election

Stuart Ayres has significant support in the party room and if he retains Penrith is a leadership prospect. He draws support from the Western Suburbs and Outer Metro Sydney seats, where there may even be gains. Kean is not guaranteed OL if Ayres gives him a run for his money.

I can’t see how Ayres will become OL, if only because it’s very hard to see how Labor can form government without Penrith.

RE: Ayres becoming OL, I can’t see how that happens because the chances of the Coalition losing government while retaining Penrith at the same time would have to be pretty slim.

I was only speaking hypothetically on if Penrith is retained by the Libs, which of course is unlikely.

A leaked poll is suggesting the PHON and LDP vote is elevated mostly at Matt Kean’s expense here which could expose him to a legitimate challenge from Labor if OPV is not kind to him. I don’t really believe the poll but it’s food for thought

The question is – why would someone do an opinion poll in a safe seat, with no independent challenger, in the first place?

This is Skulduggery by parts of the liberals who hate Matt Kean.. and their mates on sky and further right

I’ve come to know of some more details regarding this poll, it absolutely is skullduggery push-poll type stuff that is designed to inflate the PHON and LDP numbers and depress the major parties and greens

I am a voter in the neighbouring seat of Wahroonga.
I will be voting for Henskens as every other candidate is to the left of him.
But if I were in Hornsby there is an alternative in the shape of One Nation and the Liberal Democrats.
So how many people like me in Hornsby?

@sabena im a liberal supporter but youll find that matt kean is not well liked among conservatives if i were in his electorate id be voting one nation and i hope other liberals will do the same in hornsby
@mick matt kean will probly be returned but with reduced primary unless more voters dessert and support ONP Labor has no chance but ONP might get over the line with enough preferences from labor and enough liberal voters supporting the onp candidate otherwise it wil be matt kean with a slimmer majority

This seat is not One Nation territory. I expect that poll’s massively exaggerating any potential gain and they would be lucky to reach the double digits, with no chance of making 2CP over Labor.

Keep Kean in Hornsby otherwise he will come back to a consulting firm and be unbearable

Perhaps I’m missing something but I would love to hear someone justify how it is even remotely conceivable that ONP reaches 15% in this seat. Irrelevant of if you care for Matt Kean or not, when you exclude the Galston area he is the perfect match for this seat. The Greens will take this seat before ONP does (i.e never)

@andrew because Kean is driving the NSW liberal party down a hole and they want out

Extremely unlikely that either One Notion or LDP can even reach double digit in percentage terms. Adda is quite correct; this is NOT fertile territory for ON.

Matty may, indeed, not be popular with some sectors of the Lib party membership but to the voters in his electorate; he can point to tangible results as regards delivery of much needed ‘pork’ such as the Hornsby Hospital Redevelopment.

His margin IS distinctly inflated and will most likely receive a significant haircut but as long as the boundaries include the semi-rural areas around Galston & Dural as well as the newly included Cherrybrook, its effectively unlosable. Remove them and reunify Hornsby itself into the one seat by pushing the northern border of Wahroonga back over the F3, THEN you have a potentially competitive seat.

I concur with the above comments that even the thought of ONP scoring above 10% PV is inconceivable and is probably some push-polling done to make Matt Kean look bad. Sky News has a huge obsession with Green Matt Kean and they’re the ones running the “leaked poll” story. Sure, he might be scaring away conservatives.

Ironically, as a more moderate and green liberal in a senior position, he may be helping Liberals in seaside and harbourside electorates stave off teal challengers. At least it’s good electoral sandbagging.

@ 🙂 It’s a really interesting point you raise about Kean because the anecdotes I have from Liberal friends share a similar sentiment – I’m not a Lib so I can’t really comment on that. Conversely, until recently I lived at the eastern boundary of what is now Parramatta on the border with Drummoyne and having characters like Kean talking about socially moderate policies + renewables may be the only thing that saves the Liberal brand from total obliteration in that part of the world. Federally, Fiona Martin was genuinely well regarded by the community but the disdain for Morrison and blokey politics was so palpable that she never stood a chance. Hornsby increasingly shares a lot of those small L characteristics.

I am curious (sincerely) from your perspective as a conservative, that if Kean were to lose (and seriously let’s touch some grass, he’s not) and the party lost a key moderate voice would it help or hinder the Liberals in the future? There’s a totally valid argument that going towards the right could be electorally advantageous if it means gaining back dissatisfied voters and shoring up support around Penrith and the Nats gaining Murray at the expense of Lane Cove becoming a marginal (but still Liberal) seat.

If losing people like Kean does dissuade people in the centre from voting Liberal, is it preferable on balance to lose an election and rid the party of the moderates than to win an election and govern alongside them? If it’s the former, it could make for a united front in the future – but I’m not politically astute enough to make that judgement. I’m interested in your position on this. Thanks.

In the areas that have a “coal vote”, it’s not the Libs running, it’s the Nats. That will be enough to keep some distance from Matt Kean. The Nats have mastered identity politics and encourage their supporters to look the other way on their actual policies.

Same goes for the far right in general. I’ve seen people to the right of the Liberals will throw them in with Labor in their online rants, but then happily promote sitting Liberal MPs like Gerard Rennick and Alex Antic. Liberals are putting in a reasonable effort to not only keep those voters in their column, but also eventually catch the dislodged traditionally Labor voters – the ALP->PHON->LNP pipeline.

The 2022 teal wave exposed something like the PHON pipeline in the other direction. Disgruntled voters voting in an independent is one thing – perhaps they would get thrown out on their arses if they ever supported Labor. But it would have scared Lib strategists to see Higgins go straight to Labor and Ryan go straight to Greens. So the Liberals have strategies to keep teal curious voters on side. You may have noticed Perrottet’s image soften a lot since becoming premier – before he used to promote his support for Trump and socially conservative views.

Matt Kean has been promoted and become a household name for a reason. We want to think of him as “next in line” for the top job. I think he will be the NSW leader by the time of the next federal election – the last NSW premier to serve a full term was Bob Carr. Premier Matt Kean doing all kinds of nice things for teal and affluent Labor areas and being stymied by the Albanese Government (e.g. PEP-11) might be their main strategy to win those seats back. Opposition Leader Matt Kean may be able to do something similar.

Hornsby is the kind of area where Liberals could potentially face a teal threat. In local government Greens outpoll Labor and it’s a lot like the less urban parts of Ryan in QLD. I think Kean is the reason teals aren’t there, and as a result he will be easily reelected.

@andrew did you see the polls? Matt Kean is dragging the party down even in the seats where those policies resonate you can’t win without your base. Nobody votes liberal because they go labor lite and finally Kean is not a moderate he’s a left wing

Looking on the ground in Hornsby, i would say Matt kean will be lucky if he stays in. One nation has 3 booth helpers compared to the 2 libs, and Labour is running a steady campaign. This seat will come down to whether the voters voting for independants preference labour or they simply dont preference anyone.

The Sky News polls are third party polls funded by the Minerals Council and the AHA.

Think that should tell you everything you need to know about them.

3 booth helpers for One Nation? My, Kean must be shaking in his boots.

This smells to be no more credible of a threat than Ian Cook to Dan Andrews.

Were the 3 helps Paul, Rowan and Chris?

One comment I would make about Kean, is that he did seem to be arrogantly dismissive of UFC & MMA when asked about Labor’s election commitment to host a UFC event in Sydney, also opting to use the denigrating term “cage-fighting”. It seemed awfully “wowser”ish. I think he is not aware at how well-received MMA is now to Australians, particularly in NSW (which houses an active world champion in the sport) and particularly amongst young male undecided voters.

WA’s McGowan and their campaign notably identified this and went into the 2017 campaign with a pledge to legalise the sport in WA and host a major event. They also ran targeted campaigns on social media directed to young adult males highlighting this commitment. Some commentators attributed this to at least part of their success in winning over undecided young males who probably would have otherwise defaulted to the Liberals. It is almost a wedge issue that Labor has formalised to take a segment of the Liberal party’s base.

So on an issue like this, I do think Kean is hurting himself rather than helping himself. This supposed “polling” and “sentiment” in Hornsby sounds like an absolute farce however.

Getting the popcorn out for this comment section.

Kean lost a good chunk of his vote to Labor and the Greens. Maybe he’s too conservative.

Matt Kean will not seek to become NSW Liberal leader it was reported in Fairfax.

The polling that ONP and LDP would take a large section of his vote reminds me of Ian Cook’s exit poll as Adda reported. As Nicholas pointed the Labor and Greens vote increased more than that of ONP and LDP so maybe voters decided to vote for left-wing parties as the Libs are not right-wing enough.

It was to be expected that his highly inflated margin would take a significant haircut ….. and so it did.

However, the hard reality that on its current boundaries; taking in much more of the semi-rural areas of Hornsby Shire (much of which have greater community of interest with Hawkesbury electorate) plus Cherrybrook & parts of West Pennant Hills (which both gravitate more to Castle Hill as a hub); this seat is essentially unlosable for the Libs.

The further encroachments of Wahroonga (formerly Ku-ring-gai) into Hornsby itself also helps as Hornsby itself is usually rather marginal turf and the electoral demographics of the main railway/transport corridor north and south are now less Lib friendly.

Matty has always been energetic to say the least in “keeping himself visible” however it has to be acknowledged that he has delivered some much needed “pork” with the Hornsby Hospital redevelopment and this did, perhaps, temper what may have been a swing that may well have been some percentage points worse (well into double digits).

Agree with @commonwombat.

The swing here is unremarkable (with respect to any analysis on Kean specifically) considering virtually every seat in Northern Sydney had a swing around 10%.

I think it is almost inevitable that the next redistribution will essentially see Hornsby, Wahroonga, and Davidson turn from three seats into two. The northern seat may – unlike the current Hornsby – be winnable for Labor at a high tide election. As Ben wrote recently, a redistribution may be necessary before 2027.

The One Nation vote in Galston and Dural is quite high – even reaching the 15% mark seen in that silly Mineral Councils poll. Unsurprising though, these areas are very white and conservative.

I grew up in this area in the 80s and early 90s and it has always seemed a bit odd to me that Hornsby and Cherrybrook are in the same seat. They’ve always been viewed as being in separate regions of Sydney – Hornsby is an extension of the North Shore while Cherrybrook is closer to the Hills District They are different in urban character, especially with all the high rise around Hornsby now. But drawing up electoral boundaries isn’t an exact art and you’re bound to get electorates like this. If northern Sydney is going to lose a seat in the next redistribution, it will be fascinating to see what happens. Hornsby is better off with Wahroonga and Normanhurst IMO but we’ll see what happens.