Charlestown – NSW 2015

LIB 9.2%

Incumbent MP
Jodie Harrison, since 2014.

Geography
Hunter region of NSW. Charlestown covers northeastern parts of the City of Lake Macquarie, just south of Newcastle. Suburbs include Charlestown, Gateshead, Kahibah, Redhead and Warners Bay. The electorate also covers the suburbs of Adamstown and Kotara in the City of Newcastle.

Map of Charlestown's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Charlestown’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Charlestown lost Cardiff and Cardiff South to Lake Macquarie, gained the remainder of Adamstown from Newcastle and gained Redhead from Swansea. These changes cut the Liberal margin based on 2011 results from 9.9% to 9.2%.

History
The seat of Charlestown was first created for the 1971 election. A change in redistribution rules saw the lower Hunter included in the central zone, leading to a loss of a Newcastle seat. Kahibah and Hamilton were merged and Charlestown was created in their place. Charlestown was held by the ALP continuously from its creation in 1971 until the 2011 election.

The first member for Charlestown was the ALP’s Jack Stewart, who had previously held the seat of Kahibah from 1957 until its abolition in 1971. He held the seat for 18 months until his death in 1972.

The 1972 by-election was won by the ALP’s Richard Face. He held the seat for the next thirty years until his retirement in 2003, serving as Minister for Gaming and Racing from 1995 to 2003.

In 2003, the seat was won by the ALP’s Matthew Morris. In 2007, Morris retained his seat with a 7% margin over Lake Macquarie councillor Paul Scarfe, running as an independent.

In 2011, Morris was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Cornwell, with a massive 25% primary vote swing to the Liberal Party, partly due to the absence of independent candidate Paul Scarfe.

Andrew Cornwell resigned first from the Liberal Party and then from Parliament in 2014 over accusations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that he had accepted donations from a prohibited donor.

The 2014 by-election was won by Labor candidate Jodie Harrison, the Mayor of Lake Macquarie, with a 20% primary vote swing.

Candidates

Assessment
If you just look at the margin based on the 2011 election, Charlestown is a key marginal seat that will be fiercely fought over. The circumstances of Andrew Cornwell’s departure and Jodie Harrison’s win in the by-election, however, make it extremely likely that Labor will retain Charlestown in 2015.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Cornwell Liberal 19,085 43.8 +25.2 42.9
Matthew Morris Labor 12,590 28.9 -14.6 28.9
Paula Morrow Greens 3,672 8.4 -1.8 9.2
Barry Johnston Independent 3,217 7.4 +7.4 6.5
Craig Oaten Fishing Party 1,869 4.3 +4.3 3.7
Steven Camilleri Christian Democrats 949 2.2 -1.0 2.2
Bruce Foley Family First 943 2.2 +2.2 1.9
Ben Mcmullen Independent 539 1.2 +1.2 1.1
Adrian Schofield Independent 460 1.1 +1.1 0.9
Arjay Martin Independent 228 0.5 +0.5 0.5
Others 2.3

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Cornwell Liberal 21,856 59.9 +24.4 59.2
Matthew Morris Labor 14,661 40.1 -24.4 40.8

2014 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jodie Harrison Labor 19,429 49.3 +20.4
Jane Oakley Greens 5,613 14.2 +5.8
Luke Arms Independent 4,807 12.2 +12.2
Suellen Wrightson Independent 2,592 6.6 +6.6
Veronica Hope Independent 2,144 5.4 +5.4
Brian Tucker Christian Democrats 1,804 4.6 +2.4
Luke Cubis Independent 1,366 3.5 +3.5
Marc Sky Independent 1,068 2.7 +2.7
Arjay Martin Independent 611 1.5 +1.5

2014 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Jodie Harrison Labor 21,206 70.8
Jane Oakley Greens 8,762 29.2
Polling places in Charlestown at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Charlestown at the 2011 NSW state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Charlestown have been broken up slightly differently for the 2011 results (using new boundaries) and the 2014 by-election results (using old boundaries).

For the new boundaries, the electorate was split into central, north and south.

At the 2011 election, the Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.1% in the centre to 63.8%.

The Greens vote ranged from 7.9% in the south to 10.3% in the north. The vote for independent candidate Barry Johnston came fourth, with a vote ranging from 4.9% in the north to 9.2% in the centre.

For the 2014 by-election results, the seat was split into five areas, based on key suburbs: Cardiff in the north-west, Charlestown in the centre, Gateshead in the south, Kotara in the north and Warners Bay in the south-west.

Polling places at the 2014 Charlestown by-election. Cardiff in yellow, Charlestown in blue, Gateshead in orange, Kotara in red, Warners Bay in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places at the 2014 Charlestown by-election. Cardiff in yellow, Charlestown in blue, Gateshead in orange, Kotara in red, Warners Bay in green. Click to enlarge.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 42.5% in Kotara to 58.2% in Gateshead.

The Greens came second, with a vote ranging from 12% in Cardiff to 16.8% in Charlestown.

Independent candidate Luke Arms came third, with a vote ranging from 6.6% in Gateshead to 16.7% in Warners Bay.

2011 election breakdown

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % IND % Total votes % of votes
South 58.6 7.9 6.2 14,150 29.8
Central 57.1 8.8 9.2 11,500 24.2
North 63.8 10.3 4.9 9,659 20.3
Other votes 58.0 10.2 5.5 12,228 25.7

2014 by-election breakdown

Voter group ALP % GRN % IND % Total votes % of votes
Charlestown 48.0 16.8 10.9 8,596 21.8
Warners Bay 46.6 12.9 16.7 7,895 20.0
Kotara 42.5 16.4 11.3 5,627 14.3
Gateshead 58.2 14.4 6.6 5,075 12.9
Cardiff 53.9 12.0 11.0 3,344 8.5
Other votes 50.4 12.3 13.6 8,897 22.6
Two-party-preferred votes in Charlestown at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Charlestown at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2014 Charlestown by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2014 Charlestown by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2014 Charlestown by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2014 Charlestown by-election.

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