Werriwa – Australia 2028

The swing towards Labor was very small here, if the Liberals wish to return to government then this is a must win to off set losses in the inner city.

The surrounding seats of Hughes and Macarthur had much stronger swings to Labor than Werriwa. In saying that, both Hume and McMahon swung to the Liberals.

Stanley needs to be careful here, or she risks being tapped on the shoulder. Fortunately for her, this area is pretty fast growing so there’s certainly an opportunity for her to redefine her image to new residents.

I think Hughes is gonna trend labor in the next decade. If whitlam and cunnigham are dragged further down then Hughes is gonna harder for the libs to win. Though the offset is whitlam will become easier to win. I played around on jwolfs tool and if nsw retains its current seats. (Maybe just after 2031) Labor will probably be able to win Berowra. Dobell would probably become much safer for labor but Hunter would be less safe. Greenway might be obtainable for the libs thoigh rowland wuld probably need to retire first.

JWood’s tool is interesting because, on current seat numbers, much of the North Shore is over the 3.5% quota (though I don’t think it’s entirely accurate because the projected numbers barely deviate from the actual numbers). Blaxland and Watson are, once again, under quota.

With that in mind I drew a map that could’ve theoretically prevented North Sydney’s abolition, and instead abolished both Blaxland and Berowra to put a new seat in SW Sydney.

It definitely points to a seat between the Georges and Parramatta Rivers being abolished when NSW loses its next seat (assuming no expansion). I speculate the candidates will be Blaxland, Grayndler, or Sydney.

I was able to retain all the current seats but there was a shift westwards towards the hawkesbury. To be honest if they were to abolish a seat Sydney would probably be the best one. Though renaming Grayndler would be necessary to preserve the name and Grayndler isn’t anything important tbh

I also played with the Vic tool and if Vic can gets it 39th seat back (after 2031) it would be feasible to reinstate Higgins

Werriwa is a Labor heartland seat and the former seat of Gough Whitlam. Its margin though is lower than that of Reid and Bennelong, both of which were Labor gains in 2022. Interesting how there was a 40% primary vote for the Greens in Prestons West in 2025.

Not sure if some parts of werriwa, particularly the newer suburbs at the western end of the distroct near the new badgerys creek airport, are considered more affluent and have greater numbers of self employed, tradie type workers.

These voters like those in other affluent suburbs such as oatley are considered conservative leaning. The more affluent suburbs located away from the liverpool rail line also tend to be more ethnically white and less diverse, which is a net negative for labor.

@Votante

A lot of the Werriwa that Whitlam represented is now in the seat of Fowler, which is still staunchly left (68-32 to ALP on the ALP/LIB 2PP).

Quite a few of the suburbs in current Werriwa were merely bushland when Whitlam quit Parliament after the 1977 election.

All good points above
@CJ I personally do think it is in Labor’s interest to tap Ann Stanley on the shoulder and do another Lyons. Replacing Brian Mitchell with Rebecca White was a masterstroke. Come 2028 Ann Stanley would have served 12 years in parliament and not seen as a rising star given her age as well renewel is probably interest, Werriwa has been a warning sign for sometime. I think Palestine gave Ann Stanley a temporary get out of jail free card and probably drove a UAP to GRN swing which helped Labor here. Yoh An is correct that the newer parts of Werriwa suburbs like Elizabeth Hills, Cecil Hills, Middleton Grange etc are more affluent McMansion suburbs they are also very Christian so socially conservative. So this is one area Population growth is hurting Labor as the newer areas tend to be wealthier. What Labor needs to do is Run up the Numbers in the poorer parts of Werriwa like Casula, Lurnea and the suburbs of the old Green Valley housing estate, this what Ann Stanley is failing to do but Mike Freelander in neighbouring Macarthur is succesful at. I would not neighbouring Hume as a comparison because that is a safe Liberal seat and quite different demographically. McMahon is a bit and pieces seat and there were many parts of McMahon which actually had a swing to Labor which are those parts in Blacktown Council and Penrith council. I think Carmen Lazar drove a swing in the Assyrian Community.

well we can assume that even Mitchell would have won Lyons. its was less to do with White then it was liberals collapse. hard to tell if she would have won on her own now. the redsitribution will be interesting in tasmania.

Yes but Mitchell was not doing as well as Dick Adams used to do. Rebecca White is seen as energetic. If Labor was not concerned they would not have tapped Mitchell on the shoulder in the first place you cant keep saying everything was a Liberals collapse the Libs got swings to them in some seats like Casey and Solomon. plus Lyons has a lot of White Working Class those who like Trump Dutton etc

well they tapped him on the shoulder when they were at risk of losing the seat when the libs were very competitive in the polling. theres no way to reasonably determine what the outcome would have been if she didnt run. but given the swings in the other 2 tasmanian seats its not too hard to assume that it wasnt all rebecca white.

nimalan solomon can be attriubted to local factors labor just got thumped in nt election and lost every seat within its boundaries. liberals may well have won the seat had it not happened but again we have no way to determine that. its pretty obvious from the rest of the country that labors win here was not attributed to just one person whose name was on the ballot.

Yes exactly they tapped him on the shoulder when he was at risk of losing the seat but Labor needs to think long term Dick Adams held the seat even in 1996. ann Stanley is at risk of losing the seat next time Libs do well but if they get a better candidate there is a chance that they might and I repeat might narrowly hold even in. A 2013 style loss

libs need to get a better leader first. or at least improve the current ones standing. at the moment the libs are losing seats to labor, independants and god forbid maybe one nation

But the point is Liberal leadership is not a factor Labor can control nor how good the Liberals can campaign. however what Labor can control is how good their candidate is and how effective they campaign.

this is true. we will see just how good she is in 2028 if the liberals can actually campaign

@John on your redistribution point I do reckon they’ll abolish Sydney. If they do, the area can be split between Grayndler, Kingsford Smith, and Wentworth, most likely correcting the panhandle of Kingsford Smith.

@ CJ/John
Can you put comments about redistribution on the expansion of parliament thread please.

@CJ along with the area north of the Geroges river from Cook.

(Y)

woops wrong tab. np

nimalan ive moved the rebecca white discussion to lyons

In 1998, One Nation got 11.5% of the primary vote – one of their best results in NSW. It’s unlikely they can surpass that in 2028.

Werriwa stretched down south to Campbelltown back in 1998. The electorate has shrunk and now mostly contains Liverpool LGA suburbs, including new-ish housing estates. The electorate has also diversified demographically. It contains a large Muslim community. The electorate saw strong swings to the Greens in 2025.

@ Votante
This is a seat where Labor has been getting weaker. I feel Ann Stanley is poor perfoming MP and should be replaced. One thing that may save Labor is the ethnic diversification and increased Islamphobia may drive more Muslims to remain in the left camp. One Nation anti immigrant rhetoric probably helps Labor here

I think 2028 is the perfect opperunity for Labor to select a new candidate. Ann Stanley would have served 12 years in parliament and she has not risen is a seat that used to be reserved for those with talent such as Whitlam, Kerin and Latham.This is actually a seat that currrent boundaries Labor actually did worse in 2025 than 2013. This the opposte of neighbouring Macarthur where Mike Freelander has been performing well. I think the focus on immigration policy will help Labor if they can attack Angus Taylor’s policy. Labor did well in the Council by-election on Sunday which is a setback to Ned Mannoun who has risen the profile of the Libs here. Ned Mannoun has caused controversy when he defended mounrners for the Ayatollah and when he gave the home address for the state Labor MP. Labor needs to realise that Ned Mannoun is one of the greatest enemy.

Following ONP’s success at the Farrer by-election, they specifically named Western Sydney as a target.

As shown last election, the Greens gained from tapping into the economic grievances and pro-Palestine vote in Werriwa. Werriwa is quite culturally diverse and a large portion are migrants.

The western parts are becoming a mortgage belt and less semi-rural. The new Western Sydney Airport and new infrastructure should open up new opportunities for economic diversification and might minimise the anti-establishment anger.

I think Hume and Lindsay are more at-risk to One Nation.

@Votante, I discussed in past threads One Nation might do well among the Whites (especially among old timers) in Working Class Immigrant Heavy Areas due to the their low socioeconomic status alongside their greater resentment toward POC viewing them as ‘stealing our jobs’, ‘crime’, ‘Great Replacement Theory’ etc. which creates the ‘low contact intergroup threat perception’. So might get a result where One Nation gets into TPP such seats but its the demographics that prevent One Nation from winning. As I mentioned , many White Nationalist actually had their political awakening from living in working class immigrant heavy areas such as Tommy Robinson who grew up in a Muslim heavy part of Luton or even closer to home like Stephen Chavura who grew up in Bankstown.

@ Votante
Marh is correct in that Outer Suburbs that are working class tend to have greater ethnic/religious friction. In Middle class areas like Northern Sydney (Bennelong, Mitchell etc) this is not an issue where it is common for children to grow together as from a young age and have good relations and dating to occur across ethnic/racial lines. I grew up in Middle Ring Eastern Suburbs (Menzies) and it was normal for me to have friends across ethnic/racial lines but people of my own Ethnic group who lived in more working class areas found that strange and just had friends of their same cultural background. From my experience as well if you visit the foodcourt of Westfield Doncaster or Knox you see teenagers of different races socialising whereas at Westfield Fountain Gate where i have visited i never see this so there is more segregation. A lot of the commentary recently is that the Labor party is “importing votes” and trying to change the demographics so suit them. What i have been facinated the most is that Before October 7th many in the poltical right were keen to expand in to such as areas to offset the Teal areas and felt that a Multicultural working class realignment was on the cards.

Tommy Robunson has endosed Pauline Hanson. I feel this hurts Liberal chances of picking up this seat as Labor will associate the Liberals to One Nation.

Unless you read the Guardian, most Australians and probably even fewer Werriwa voters would have any idea who Tommy Robinson is. He is a pretty vile piece of work and there is no room for him in Australian politics. ON should be attacked for fraternising with him and it shows poor judgement as even the repulsive Nigel Farage gives him a wide berth. We are still almost two years out from the next election so associating any body with anybody is probably premature as who know where politically things will be this time next year let alone May 2028.

@ Redistributed
I think Muslims will know him better than others and it can easily weaponised especially when there is rising Islamphobia i dont think it hurts Liberal chances in Pearce which is the most British seat in the country. While i agree most Australians dont know who he is it is more a niche issue to Muslims. The reason i mentioned Werriwa is that it is one of the few seats in the country that Libs are interested in that has a large Muslim community 4th largest in the country. The proponents of the Realignment theory often argue that Libs should focus on Werriwa rather than Tealish seats. Labor strategy is to ensure Muslims dont join the realignment with White Working class voters.

I don’t see the Liberals winning a metropolitan seat in a large capital city if they are polling third nationally. They’d be channeling resources to defend their own seats. The Liberals and One Nation are pro-Zionist and hawkish on foreign policy and this would deter voters in seats with large Muslim or Middle-eastern migrant populations.

@ Votante
One seat i think Libs can pick up is Moore as i think it will remain a classic contest it is not really socially progressive nor is the demographics good for ONP. I am confident Libs will retain Cook eventhough it is a metro seat.

@Nimalan
The Liberals would struggle to gain a seat in a large capital city. I agree that there’s a chance in Moore and they will retain Cook.

In working-class, inland seats, there will be a greater Liberal to ONP swing.

@ Votante
I agree in working class areas of the cities there will be a greater Lib to ONP swing. Moore, Hughes and Cook are an important cluster of seats that have slightly above average education levels 28%, High homeownership not really mortgage belt or expressing economic hardship. These seats have low levels of ethnic diversity as well. They are not really socially progressive as well So in the current circumstance they seem perfect for the Libs.

It would be interesting if One Nation strongest performance would be in the wealthier western parts of the seat where there a large Assyrian Community mainly consist with either very Devout Catholic or Assyrian Apostolic Church? I think Pauline Hanson appeals to very socially conservative Christians which Non-White Christians might make up the majority of One Nation’s non-white support.

@ Marh
I think that is a very interesting Question. Could Middle Eastern Christians (Copts, Maronites, Assyrians or Chaldeans) be the next demographic like Southern/Eastern Europeans to trend right. Middle Eastern Christians tend to be very devout and socially Conservative. It is possible that right wing nationalists have a bond with them.
I dont think the Vietnamese Buddhists or Nepalese Hindus in the seat will trend right.