Pearce – Australia 2028

I also wonder how would One Nation fare with British Immigrants given this seat seems to have the highest percentage of people born in England in the country?

@Marh

British migrants (like any migrant group) aren’t a homogenous blob, my Dad and grandparents are originally from England, my Dad’s VERY left, while my Grandad votes One Nation (Grandma would too if she were still alive)

So hard to tell from that alone – a government employee originally from Brighton is going to vote VERY differently to a plumber originally from Derby.

@Marh, I reckon a good predictor of the Labor to One Nation swing is the Labor 2PP vs yes vote at the voice referendum. They may be more socially conservative but vote along economic lines. The Liberals in 2025 falsely assumed that disaffected working-class Labor voters who voted no to the voice would switch to them, when referendum was a non-issue by 2025.

Many see themselves as working class because they don’t work in an office or don’t have a degree, have a migrant background and/or because of what their parents did for a living. This might hold even when they are small business owners or earn more than the average degree holder.

@Votante regarding the Labor 2PP vs yes vote at the voice referendum, you also have to take into account that an average No Labor Voter in Blaxland is mostly likely not going to be the same average No Labor Voter in Brand since the former only mostly reluctantly voted No as they are a non white immigrant whereas the latter probably voted seriously No since they are more likely a Anglo.

I agree that there are differing reasons for a Labor voter to vote No to the voice.

The Labor-held seats that had the highest No votes were generally outer-suburban, semi-rural or regional – Pearce, Spence, Hunter and Blair. Such electorates have a high percentage of people who are Australian-born and/or Anglo.

The % No vote in most lower socio-economic, multicultural Labor seats were close to the national average.

Votante is correct, Ethnic Working Class seats like Blaxland, Calwell, Gorton and Scullin were close to national average and often better than seats like Cook and Moore which are wealthier and more Anglo. Pearce had a very high No (Higher than National and statewide) and no booth had even 45% Yes vote while low SES Ethnic seats often had Yes voting booths even in deproved area. Alkmos, Englinton are Millenial Central but had booths that were over 60% No voting. This is one reason i see it as one of the most at risk seats for Labor.

* i meant that this is seat prone to flipping not that Voice Referendum will mean that it will flip. I think Nationalism will resonate here.

If One Nations wins Farrer this would increase the chance of a ONP pickup should this seat become vacant.

@WAfan98,
One Nation tying itself to Trump has started to hurt them so unless they pivot they’ll only get a large vote but most of it will feed back to the Liberals. What is certain at this point is Labor’s is hold on here looks shaky which won’t be assisted by an aging state government going for a 4th term, a federal Labor government seeking a 3rd term, constant interest rate rises and the incumbent member highly likely to retire creating an open race. The federal election is a long time off yet and the federal government could once again turn their fortunes around.

Pearce has the highest proportion of homes under mortgage in Australia, shaping much of the electorate’s behaviour. Thirty years ago Liberal pollster Mark Textor described the “mortgage belt archetype” in suburbs like Berwick and Glenmore Park.An updated version of that archetype fits Perth’s northern fringe very clearly.
Archetype Household: Chris and Sarah
• Ages: Chris 38, Sarah 36 — late‑millennial homeowners who entered the housing market later than previous generations and are now at peak financial exposure.
• Suburb: Alkimos — a master‑planned coastal suburb on Perth’s northern fringe, dominated by new single‑storey four‑bedroom homes with double garages.
• Occupations:
– Chris: FIFO technician in the Pilbara for a major mining company; strong income on paper but heavily eroded by mortgage pressure, rising costs and FIFO‑related expenses.
– Sarah: Part‑time healthcare worker, for example a nurse at Joondalup Health Campus, balancing work with childcare.
• Children:
– Leo (9): Plays junior footy/Auskick.
– Isla (6): Year 1 student at a local school such as Shorehaven Primary.

Generational Background
• Grew up during the Howard era, likely in suburbs such as Padbury or Mullaloo in the electorate of Moore.
• May have attended schools like Ocean Reef Senior High School.
• Came of age during the mid‑2000s boom years.
• Children of Howard‑era battlers and grandchildren of Menzies’ “forgotten people”.
• Their outlook is shaped by upward mobility, rising asset values and now sustained financial pressure.
Structural Features of Pearce That Reinforce This Archetype
• Rapid population churn in Alkimos, Eglinton and Jindalee, producing weaker long‑term partisan attachment.
• Long commutes or FIFO rhythms that reduce ideological engagement and increase sensitivity to household economics.
• High childcare and schooling costs typical of young‑family growth corridors.
• Limited local employment base, with many residents working in Joondalup, the CBD or the Pilbara.
Why This Archetype Matters for Understanding Pearce
• Represents the demographic centre of gravity in the electorate.
• Key characteristics: high mortgage exposure, young families, FIFO or long‑commute work patterns, strong attachment to home ownership, sensitivity to interest rates and cost‑of‑living pressures, relatively weak ideological anchoring.
• These are not traditional swing voters; they are economically exposed voters whose behaviour is shaped by household finances and time scarcity.
• While not explaining every part of Pearce, this archetype captures the dominant profile emerging as Perth’s northern fringe expands.