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This seat use to be competitive and it appears that Kevin Hogan has built up a personal profile.
Labor has lost ground in towns like Casino and Grafton too
An expansion of parliament would likely see it loses Coffs harbour and gain ballina. When that happens i will argue for Richmond to become the “new seat” and name it after Mt warning. Page could shift south and Richmond move south as well that way they can preserve a federation division that’s actual includes its namesake
2019 was the difference maker. There was a big swing to Kevin Hogan. What happened? Was it connected to the backlash against Labor in regional QLD and the Hunter?
I know that Janelle Saffin, the last Labor MP, didn’t recontest as she had just won the state seat of Lismore. Her personal vote wasn’t there at the 2019 federal election.
@Ben Raue, just pointing out that most of the seat guide info is for Cook and not Page.
Yep – the big swing in towns that rely on primary industry – Mackay, Burnie, Cessnock etc
There’s nothing Labor can do to get this back.
What may have happened if it were Saffin vs a generic NAT? Think it would definitely be competitive at least
Nether Portal adding in parts of Ballina would probably make it more marginal and if Hogan retired it could be in play.
Some interesting discussion on the Indi and Wannon threads about Coalition/ONP prospects in certain rural seats. Like many coastal Nat-held seats there is a reasonably strong retiree population that should help hold up the Nats vote, and Hogan is a popular local MP, but more working class towns such as Grafton and Casino could see big shifts towards ONP. Lots of little towns as well, but many of them (especially in the north of the electorate) are Labor/Green friendly and of course Lismore itself is quite progressive.
Should polls be correct an ONP has indeed overtaken the Coalition comfortably – what might the 3CP look like here? Could Labor fall out?
@ Maxim
Great analysis, if you could look at Cowper next and maybe look at the Voice support in rural seats maybe that will show which rural seats are more progressive than others.