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I’ve looked through the 2PP Counts for Robertson in every election since 2001, to see how it fared compared to the nation at large. I chose to start from 2001 as every election since then has seen a 2PP result corresponding with the party forming government.
The results below are calculated by subtracting the nationwide 2PP from Robertson’s 2PP:
2001 – 5.95% more to the right.
2004 – 4.07% more to the right.
2007 – 2.59% more to the right.
2010 – 0.88% more to the left.
2013 – 0.49% more to the left.
2016 – 0.78% more to the right.
2019 – 2.71% more to the right.
2022 – 0.13% more to the left.
2025 – 4.15% more to the left.
2025 saw Robertson have the biggest tilt to one side of politics in Australia since 2001. The 2025 result is also the safest the seat has been for any party since 1931 (1983 comes close but the lack of an official 2PP means it’s estimated to be 59.3%, short of 2025’s 59.37%).
Given such a strong result for Labor on the Central Coast, as well as Gordon Reid’s popularity in the seat, I think it’s fair to say that the bellwether streak could be over, and it may be a seat Labor holds if they fall out of government in the future.
What seats are bellwethers nowadays? Seems hard to say with all the flux in the political landscape in recent times.
That’s also because the result was probably skewed towards on side since 2001. 2001 was a good year for the coalition due to Sept 11. 2025 was a result of what I can only describe of as an absolute disaster of the liberal campaign. The libs did it to themselves. The swing to labor was on par with the national and state swing. The bellwether streak will likely continue.
Nicholas, Anthony Green as part of the 2016 election coverage identified several bellwether seats that have usually gone with the government of the day since the 1980’s. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2016/guide/bellwethers
Out of these, I can see some that may never return to being bellwethers. Page and Herbert being rural/provincial seats appear to have swung hard against Labor in recent elections. Makin seems to have gone the other way and seems to be a safe Labor seat instead of a swing type one. Macarthur, if it remains anchored in the Campbelltown area may also be considered a fairly solid Labor seat that the Liberals will struggle to win back.
Eden Monaro appears to have trended more towards a Labor leaning seat, especially since the election of Kirsty McBain. It lost its bellwether streak in 2016 and will only become competitive either if McBain retires/steps down or the national environment is favourable (like 2013 or 1996).
Lindsay is the reverse of Eden Monaro; it appears to have trended towards the Liberals and also lost its bellwether streak in 2016. Forde and Petrie are similar to Lindsay, being Liberal leaning swing seats that Labor will only win during high tide elections.
I think Leichhardt and Robertson may be the only two ‘true’ bellwethers left. They both seem to be receptive to incumbent MP’s, with long serving members who are able to build up a personal vote and make the seat safer than usual.
@Nicholas I looked it up a while ago, and actually the second longest running Bellwether currently, after Robertson, is Reid/Lowe. That seat has gone with the government in every election since 2007.
That list from 2016 combined with the hindsight of the 2025 election makes me wonder whether despite all the talk of Queensland firming up for the LNP, Petrie and Forde may still be bellwethers.
@ Yohn An
Remember in 1984
Hawke lost both Petrie/Forde and did not win them back until 1987. Forde was not a bellwether in 2010 but Petrie was.
In 2027 lets revist Petrie/Forde, i can see Labor winning those seats again. 2022 was not a normal election outside of WA the swings were mostly in Areas with large Chinese community or Tealish (inc Boothby, Ryan, Higgins and Brisbane). Roberston was notable exception. If Covid never occured i doubt we have seen the swings in Chinese Australian community and WA. I think in 2022 Albo did not really appeal as much to mortgage belt etc which is where elections are normally decided.
Obviously over time seats move due to factors but seats like Eden monaro and robertson are anchored due to natural boundaries. Eden monaro idls anchored by the state boundary on one side the ocean on another an to a lesser extent the act. Robertson is anchored by the hwakesbury river and coi favtors that will prevent it from crossing over. The factor that stopped Eden monaro was likely Paul Kelly’s personal standing. It’s hard to tell if it will to return to bell wether status until the next liberal govt takes power.