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This seat was incredibly messy however I think it’s definitely worthwhile watching as the population continues to grow along the Princess Hwy in towns like Longwarry, Drouin, Warragul and Trafalgar where it is competitive for both parties and Labor seems to be cutting through along the coast especially Phillip Island, Wonthaggi, Cap Patterson and Inverloch.
@ SpaceFish
Sea changers maybe helping on the Coast but i think Labor vote in La Trobe Valley will continue to decline and Coalition may win Moe booths in two more election cycles so i think two trends in opposite directions.
This seat hasn’t been winnable for Labor since the 90s, and with it sitting almost 10 points right of the national average with no Liberal incumbent, I doubt it will ever be competitive again.
I dont think it will be again either maybe it will remain close rather than super safe like Gippsland. However, Labor does not need this seat these days as they won Corangamite which Hayden, Hawke, Keating or Bezley never won.
Agreed
@Nimalan you can also make a case for Sturt, Boothby, and Bennelong staying with Labor long term. All three hadn’t voted for any of those Labor leaders.
CJ, it is probably too early to tell whether those three seats are now considered as Labor leaning ones. If they are retained when the Coalition wins a majority (like Corangamite in 2019 or Lilley/Moreton in all three of the Coalition’s victories 2013-2019), it would be indicative that they have changed.
@ CJ
Before the May election, i said even if Dutton were to win government he will not win Reid, Boothby and Swan. check link below. John agreed with me as well. I am not saying that Libs can not win it back ever but those seats were not the Outer Suburban mortgage belt ones that Dutton was expected to make inroads in. Boothby, Bennelong (current boundaries) and Sturt are Tealish seats where climate policy is a wedge so if the Libs dont win those 3 then they will need to win 3 seats instead that they did not win in 2013 such as Hunter, Whitlam, Lingiari.
Tony Abbott did not win Makin, Kingston or Moreton in 2013 which John Howard did in 1996 but he won Barton (old boundaries), Banks which Howard never did he also won Reid 2013 boundaries were more Pro-Labor than old Reid.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/boothby2025#comment-839278
Yoh an is right if you asked me in February whether Coalition can win Bendigo again i would say no but now i am not sure and now i am saying there is a possibility that Coalition may one day win Bendigo/Ballarat even though both are still seeing tree changers move in.
I think enough time has passed to say Corio will not be won by Coalition again (until late 1960s it was a swing seat) and i think Lilley is highly unlikely and may require a result in QLD that is higher than statewide result. Me thinks Moreton has moved permenently to a left wing seat and even if there is 1996 time result it will only be won for 1 term.