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I want to analyse this seat. This seat is a 2016 pick up and a must win for Libs to get back into government. I also want to analyse One Nation chances in seeing whether they can pick up this seat. I believe for ONP to win a seat it usually needs to meet two thresholds
1. Less than 25% Bachelor degree ideally less than 20%
2. Majority English speaking ideally more than 60% the 50-60% is the grey zone.
This seat is quite divided on the first test.
It is actually exactly 25% Bachlor Degree but that makes a steep internal divide. In the Blue Mountains 32.7% have a Bachelor degree or above higher than state and national averages. Howeever, in the Hawkesbury it is only 15.9% far below state and national averages. Despite that Median incomes are actually higher in the Hawkesbury $1980 versus $1756 so the university educated elites as ONP calls them actually earn less. Labor margin in this seat is inflated as Susan Templeman has built a personal vote in Hawkesbury. ONP can certianly appeal in Hawkesbury.
Lets look at ethnicity
Blue Mountains seems to be less diverse than Hawkesbury-90.1% english speaking versus 88.4% and a lower indigenous percent 2.7% versus 4.8%
Ben actually did a great analysis on this seat after 2019 election to look at the polarisation of this seat. link below. This seat has turned overall Left as Blue Mountains as moved from a swing/bellwether area to solid left while Hawkesbury has remained the same politically. Tony Abbott actually did better statewide than John Howard ever did. However, even in 2013 TA underperfomed JH 1996 and 2004 results.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/38846