Croydon – Victoria 2014

LIB 12.2%

Incumbent MP
David Hodgett, Member for Kilsyth since 2006.

Geography
Outer eastern Melbourne. Croydon covers the suburbs of Croydon, Croydon Hills, Croydon North and Croydon South, and parts of Ringwood, Kilsyth and Mooroolbark. Most of the electorate lies in the City of Maroondah, and a small part lies in Yarra Ranges Shire.

Map of Croydon's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Croydon’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Croydon is a new name for the seat of Kilsyth. The electorate shifted north-west, gaining most of Croydon from Warrandyte and losing parts of Kilsyth to Monbulk and parts of Bayswater North and Ringwood East to Bayswater and Ringwood respectively. These changes have increased the margin for the Liberal Party from 10.4% to 12.2%.

History
Croydon is a new electorate, but mostly replaces Kilsyth, which itself replaced Mooroolbark.

Mooroolbark existed from 1992 to 2002, and was held during that time by Liberal MP Lorraine Elliott.

In 2002, Elliott contested the redrawn seat of Kilsyth. The seat was considered relatively safe for the Liberal Party. In an upset result, Labor candidate Dympna Beard won the seat with a massive swing.

In 2006, Beard’s 2.1% margin was overturned by the Liberal Party’s David Hodgett, who won the seat with a margin of 245 votes. In 2010, Hodgett transformed his razor-thin margin into a solid 10.4% margin.

David Hodgett has served as a minister since March 2013.

Candidates

  1. Sarah Barclay (Country Alliance)
  2. Mike Brown (Australian Christians)
  3. Lesley Fielding (Labor)
  4. Joel Martin (Independent)
  5. David Hodgett (Liberal)
  6. Jill Wild (Greens)

Assessment
Croydon is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, barring a Labor landslide.

2010 election result – Croydon

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Hodgett Liberal 19,348 52.85 +9.23 55.62
Vicki Setches Labor 11,172 30.52 -8.37 29.03
Justin-Paul Sammons Greens 2,913 7.96 -0.66 8.67
Daniel Harrison Family First 1,165 3.18 -3.56 3.16
Sam Haughton-Greene Sex Party 1,145 3.13 +3.13 1.64
Shane McKenzie Independent 546 1.49 +1.49 0.94
Reinhard Dekter Democratic Labor 319 0.87 +0.87 0.41
Other independents 0.53

2010 two-party-preferred result – Croydon

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
David Hodgett Liberal 22,122 60.40 +10.05 62.18
Vicki Setches Labor 14,503 39.60 -10.05 37.82
Polling places in Croydon at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Croydon at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Croydon have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three parts, ranging from 60.4% in central to 64.2% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 6.6% in the east to 9.6% in the centre.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
West 8.51 64.15 9,722 27.84
Central 9.63 60.35 9,274 26.56
East 6.59 61.06 6,331 18.13
Other votes 9.28 62.70 9,595 27.48
Two-party-preferred votes in Croydon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Croydon at the 2010 Victorian state election.