Burwood – Victoria 2010

ALP 3.7%

Incumbent MP
Bob Stensholt, since 1999.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Burwood covers parts of Boroondara, Monash and Whitehorse local government areas. Burwood covers the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood and Box Hill South and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Chadstone, Glen Iris, Hartwell and Surrey Hills.

History
The first electoral district of Burwood was created in 1955. It was held by Liberal MP Jim MacDonald until it was abolished in 1967, when he moved to the recreated seat of Glen Iris, which he held until his retirement in 1976.

The seat of Burwood was restored in 1976, and was won by Jeff Kennett, also of the Liberal Party. Kennett was appointed a minister in 1981, and was elected leader of the Liberal Party after they lost the 1982 state election.

Kennett led the party into the 1985 and 1988 elections, but after losing two elections he was replaced in 1989 by Alan Brown. He returned to the leadership unopposed in 1991 after poor performance by Brown.

Kennett won the 1992 election, and served as Premier for two terms. He won re-election in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999, Kennett lost his majority in the Legislative Assembly, and lost government when independent MPs supported the ALP.

Jeff Kennett resigned as Member for Burwood shortly afterwards, and in the following by-election, ALP candidate Bob Stensholt won the seat with a 10.4% swing. Stensholt increased his margin at the 2002 election, and was re-elected again in 2006.

Candidates

Political situation
Burwood was a solidly Liberal seat during the last Liberal government. In the case of a significant swing towards the Liberals in Victoria, Burwood is certainly vulnerable.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Stensholt ALP 14,565 42.09 -3.01
Graham Bailey LIB 14,272 41.24 +1.19
John Presley GRN 4,358 12.59 +1.06
John Canavan FF 1,408 4.07 +4.07

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Stensholt ALP 18,594 53.74 -1.35
Graham Bailey LIB 16,009 46.26 +1.35

Booth breakdown
Booths in Burwood have been divided into four areas. Booths in Boroondara have been divided into the Glen Iris-Ashburton area and the Burwood area, and the remainder of the seat has been divided into southeast and northeast areas.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, but it varied between different areas. The ALP won slim margins in the western part of the seat, but won 54% in the northeast, and over 60% in the southeast part of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Burwood at the 2006 state election. Burwood in blue, Glen Iris-Ashburton in yellow, South-East in green, North-East in red.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Glen Iris-Ashburton 13.42 51.61 6,900 19.95
South-East 11.01 60.68 6,894 19.93
Burwood 12.26 50.80 6,399 18.50
North-East 13.56 54.07 5,700 16.48
Other votes 12.80 51.82 8,691 25.13
Two-party-preferred votes in Burwood at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Burwood at the 2006 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Despite Kennett holding this for two decades, it’s far from a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. It contains some affluent Liberal areas around Glen Iris and Camberwell, but it also contains the old Alamein (66% ALP) and Homesglen/Jordanville (68% ALP) public housing estates. Box Hill in the north-east is also a good Labor area. Kennett’s personal vote probably masked the fact that this is a pretty standard marginal seat containing a bit of everything.

    Many commentators overlooked the true nature of the seat and predicted it would just naturally return to the Liberals in 2002 and 2006, but Stensholt held on easily and is apparently a popular local member. I think he might find it very difficult in 2010 though.

  2. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Emily Kate Cowan – Greens
    Iming Chan – Family First
    Lucia De Summa – DLP
    Graham Watt – Liberal
    Bob Stensholt – Labor
    Eamon Cole-Flynn – Sex Party

  3. I think the Liberals will win this, although polling is inconsistent, probably because of the diversity in the seat.

  4. LIB GAIN, even thought the swing could be smaller here if the local MP is as hardworking as MDMConnell suggests

Comments are closed.