Selwyn – NZ 2014

NAT 55.77% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Amy Adams, since 2008.

Geography
South Island. Selwyn covers rural areas immediately to the south and west of Christchurch. Selwyn covers less populated parts of Christchurch City, including the Banks Peninsula, as well as the entirety of the Selwyn council area, and a small part of the Ashburton council area.

Map of Selwyn's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Selwyn’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Selwyn previously did not contain any part of the Ashburton council area, but gained a small corner at the south-eastern edge of the seat from Rangitata. In exchange, Selwyn lost Halswell and other areas in the Christchurch area, to Port Hills and Waimakariri. This increased the National margin from 53.9% to 55.8%.

History
The electorate of Selwyn was first created in 1866. The seat has been abolished and restored three times, having ceased to exist from 1919 to 1946, from 1972 to 1978 and from 1996 to 2008.

Selwyn, and the other seats covering the same area, have been held by National since the 1940s, except for the Banks Peninsula which was paired with Labour-voting suburbs of Christchurch in the 2000s.

Selwyn was held from 1981 to 1994 by Ruth Richardson of the National Party.

Richardson was a prominent supporter of free market reforms within the National Party, and became Minister of Finance when National won power in 1990.

After the 1993 election, Richardson was removed as Finance Minister in 1993, and she resigned from Parliament in 1994.

Selwyn was won at the 1994 by-election by National candidate David Carter.

Selwyn was abolished at the 1996 election, with eastern parts going into Banks Peninsula, while western parts went into Rakaia.

Banks Peninsula was a much more marginal seat, including southern suburbs of Christchurch. It was won by David Carter in 1996, but in 1999 he lost to Labour’s Ruth Dyson. Dyson held Banks Peninsula until 2008, when the seat was renamed Port Hills and retracted further into Christchurch.

The electorate of Ashburton had been renamed Rakaia in 1993, before shifting further into the Selwyn area in 1996. Ashburton/Rakaia had been held by Jenny Shipley since 1987. Jenny Shipley became Prime Minister in 1997, and held the seat until National lost power in 1999. She retired in 2002.

The National Party’s Brian Connell won Rakaia in 2002, and held the seat until the 2008 election.

Selwyn was restored at the 2008 election. The National Party’s Amy Adams won the restored seat, and was re-elected in 2011. Adams has served as a minister since the 2011 election.

Candidates

  • Amy Adams (National #15), Member for Selwyn.
  • Roger Clibborn (Conservative)
  • Gordon Dickson (Labour)
  • Sheryl Gardyne (Māori #22)
  • Paul Gilbert (ACT #27)
  • Peter Hill (Green #44)
  • Bill Woods (New Zealand First #31)

Assessment
Selwyn is the safest National seat in the country.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Amy Adams National 24,96369.14+8.6569.9223,08662.65+7.7462.93
Jo McLean Labour 5,51215.27-14.5414.155,94216.12-9.4915.26
Eugenie Sage Green 3,67410.18+10.1810.444,21511.44+3.9111.67
Bill WoodsNew Zealand First1,2773.54+3.543.641,7504.75+1.715.00
Wilton GrayConservative6771.88+1.881.769062.46+2.462.46
ACT0.043360.91-2.770.99
United Future0.042560.69-0.450.68
Māori1370.37-0.040.37
Legalise Cannabis1230.33+0.070.38
Mana520.14+0.140.14
Alliance240.07+0.020.05
Democrats130.04+0.020.04
Libertarianz110.03+0.010.03
Polling places in Selwyn at the 2011 general election. North Central in green, North West in yellow, Peninsula in red, South Central in blue, South West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Selwyn at the 2011 general election. North Central in green, North West in yellow, Peninsula in red, South Central in blue, South West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Selwyn have been divided into five groups. Polling places on the Banks Peninsula have been grouped as “Peninsula”. Those polling places close to Christchurch have been grouped as “North Central” and “South Central”, while the more rural western booths have been grouped as “North West” and “South West”.

The National Party won large majorities in four of the five areas, with electorate vote majorities ranging from 69.8% in the North West to 74.2% in North Central, and party vote majorities ranging from 62.4% in North West to 67% in North Central.

The vote is quite different on the Banks Peninsula, where National won a slim majority – 53% of the electorate vote and 50.2% of the party vote.

The Labour vote is very low across Selwyn, ranging from 11.4% to 18.6%. While Labour’s vote was highest on the Banks Peninsula, it was still quite low at 17-19%.

The Green Party came third, outpolling Labour in two areas. The Green Party narrowly outpolled Labour in South Central, with 12-14% of the vote.

On the Banks Peninsula, the Green Party polled a massive 24% of the party vote and 26% of the electorate vote, easily outpolling Labour.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRN
North Central74.2113.476.7567.0014.558.688,68129.22
South West72.0615.047.5763.5215.458.743,97713.39
South Central70.5311.4412.6962.7913.3913.863,59412.10
North West69.7812.119.4262.4314.8611.043,41811.51
Peninsula53.0117.5726.0350.1918.6424.452,6248.83
Other votes69.5215.5310.1762.6515.8811.487,41024.95
National party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in central Selwyn at the 2011 general election.