Rangitīkei – NZ 2014

NAT 29.55% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Ian McKelvie, since 2011.

Geography
Central South Island. Rangitīkei stretches from Taumarunui in the north to Shannon in the south, although the seat does not include the Palmerston North urban area. The seat includes all of Manawatu and Rangitīkei council areas, and parts of Horowhenua, Palmerston North and Ruapehu council areas. The main towns are Feilding, Marton and Taumarunui.

Map of Rangitīkei's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Rangitīkei’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Most of Rangitīkei’s boundaries remained steady, including the boundaries to the north, east and west. Palmerston North is completely surrounded by Rangitīkei, and no changes were made to that seat’s boundaries. The southern boundary expanded further south to gain the northeastern corner of Horowhenua, which was previously entirely contained in Ōtaki council area.

History
Rangitīkei has existed since the 1861 election. The seat has been dominated by the National Party since 1938, when National won the seat off Labour’s only MP for the seat, after only one term. In the past 76 years, National has only lost the seat for a six year period from 1978 to 1984, when the seat was held by the Social Credit Party.

Three successive National MPs from 1938 to 1977. Roy Jack moved to the seat in 1972, after holding other seats since 1954. In late 1977, he died after 39 years in Parliament.

The 1978 by-election was won by Bruce Beetham, leader of the Social Credit Party. His party at the time held no seat, and had only won a single seat once.

Beetham was re-elected at the 1978 election, when the Social Credit Party won 16.1% of the national vote but no other seats. He was re-elected in 1981, with a national vote of over 20%. Beetham was joined by a second Social Credit MP.

In 1984, Beetham was defeated by National candidate Denis Marshall. Marshall held the seat for four terms, retiring in 1999. Simon Power then held Rangitīkei for another four terms from 1999 to 2011.

Ian McKelvie has held Rangitīkei since 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Rangitīkei is a safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate Votes Party Votes
Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist Votes % Swing Redist
Ian McKelvie National 18,284 58.87 +52.08 58.53 17,115 53.94 +1.49 53.47
Josie Pagani Labour 8,902 28.66 +25.35 28.98 6,723 21.19 -6.35 21.68
Maree Brannigan Green 2,108 6.79 +6.00 6.71 2,994 9.44 +4.00 9.35
Ian Robertson Conservative 1,159 3.73 +3.30 3.66 1,333 4.20 +4.20 4.18
Hayden Fitzgerald ACT 302 0.97 +0.86 0.95 478 1.51 -2.78 1.49
Peter Cleave Mana 110 0.35 +0.31 0.34 62 0.20 +0.2 0.21
Charles Turner Independent 102 0.33 +0.29 0.31
Grant Seton Independent 91 0.29 +0.26 0.30
New Zealand First 0.15 2,305 7.26 +2.17 7.34
United Future 0.03 260 0.82 -0.33 0.82
Māori 247 0.78 -0.13 0.79
Legalise Cannabis 0.04 152 0.48 +0.08 0.48
Democrats 27 0.09 +0.03 0.08
Libertarianz 23 0.07 +0.01 0.07
Alliance 12 0.04 -0.06 0.04
Polling places in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election. Feilding in red, North in yellow, North Central in blue, South in green, South Central in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election. Feilding in red, North in yellow, North Central in blue, South in green, South Central in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Rangitīkei have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Rangitīkei council area have been grouped as ‘North Central’, and those in Ruapehu council area have been grouped as ‘North’. Polling places in Horowhenua, Manawatu and Palmerston North council areas have been grouped together and broken into three areas. Polling places in the town of Feilding have been grouped together, and the remainder is split into South Central (north of Feilding) and South (south of Feilding).

National won a majority of the electorate vote in all five areas. On the party vote, National won a majority in three areas and won a plurality just short of a majority in two others. Overall, the National vote is strongest in South Central, slightly less strong in North Central and South, and weakest (but still quite strong) in Feilding and North.

The Green Party came third, with a party vote ranging from 8.1% in North Central to 10.3% in North. New Zealand First came fourth, with a party vote ranging from 5.2% in South Central to 9.5% in North.

Voter group Electorate votes Party votes Total % of votes
NAT LAB GRN NAT LAB GRN NZF
South 60.42 27.45 6.39 55.23 20.68 9.27 6.77 9,258 28.47
Feilding 53.95 34.23 6.00 49.37 26.80 9.13 7.33 6,082 18.70
North Central 60.90 27.46 5.92 55.68 18.28 8.10 9.25 5,335 16.41
North 54.86 29.86 8.32 49.97 20.12 10.27 9.54 2,847 8.75
South Central 67.76 18.58 7.30 61.17 12.76 9.27 5.23 1,588 4.88
Other votes 57.65 29.56 7.49 52.77 23.62 10.17 6.32 7,410 22.79
National party votes in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in southern Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in southern Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in southern Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in southern Rangitīkei at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Feilding at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Feilding at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Feilding at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Feilding at the 2011 general election.