Northland – NZ 2014

NAT 35.95% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Mike Sabin, since 2011.

Geography
Northern end of New Zealand. Northland covers the northernmost part of North Island, with the exception of the area around Whangarei. The electorate includes all of Far North and Kaipara council areas, and small parts of Auckland and Whangarei council area.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Northland has existed since the 1996 election, and has always been won by the National Party candidate. The seat was preceded by Bay of Islands from 1978 to 1993, and by Far North from 1993 to 1996.

Bay of Islands was restored in 1978 after being abolished in 1946. The seat covered the northern tip of the North Island. Neill Austin won the seat for the National Party, after previously winning Hobson in 1975. Austin retired in 1987.

John Carter won Bay of Islands in 1987. He was re-elected representing a seat in the area in 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008. The seat was renamed ‘Far North’ in 1993 and ‘Northland’ in 1996.

Carter resigned from Parliament in early 2011 to take up the position of High Commissioner to the Cook Islands.

At the 2011 election, Northland was won by the National Party’s Mike Sabin.

At every election from 1996 to 2008, another candidate in Northland was elected as a list MP. In 1996, the Alliance’s Frank Grover won a seat. In 1999, the Green Party’s Sue Bradford was elected after running in Northland. She was re-elected three more times, retiring in 2009. She only ran in Northland in 1999.

In 2002, New Zealand First candidate Jim Peters was elected on the party list. He lost his seat in 2005.

Labour candidate Shane Jones was elected as a list MP at the 2005 and 2008 elections after running in Northland. In 2011, he ran in a different seat, and retired in 2014.

Candidates

  • David Clendon (Green #11), list MP since 2009.
  • Craig Nelson (ACT #35)
  • Willow-Jean Prime (Labour #34)
  • Ken Rintoul (Focus #1)
  • Murray Robertson (Independent)
  • Mike Sabin (National #44), Member for Northland.
  • Mel Taylor (Conservative #7)
  • Glen Timms (Money Free)
  • David Wilson (Democrats #20)

Assessment
Northland is a very safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Mike Sabin National 18,18857.55-1.5916,38150.15-1.55
Lynette Stewart Labour 6,82621.60-7.645,74817.60-7.44
Pauline Evans Green 3,82212.09+5.223,84811.78+4.44
Melanie TaylorConservative1,6065.08+5.081,7145.25+5.25
Ngawai HerewiniMana6111.93+1.934201.29+1.29
Josephine PeitaMāori2900.92+0.922570.79-0.69
Barry BrillACT2610.83-0.855361.64-2.57
New Zealand First3,33010.19+3.79
Legalise Cannabis2130.65+0.23
United Future1490.46-0.21
Democrats350.11-0.03
Libertarianz250.080.00
Alliance90.03-0.05
Polling places in Northland at the 2011 general election. North-East in green, North-West in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Northland at the 2011 general election. North-East in green, North-West in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Northland have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Auckland and Kaipara council areas, and southern parts of Whangarei, have been grouped as ‘South’. Polling places in Far North council area, and northern parts of Whangarei, have been split into North-East and North-West.

The National Party won a majority of the electorate vote, ranging from 51% in North-West to 60.6% in the South. Labour’s electorate vote ranges from 20% to 25%, while the Green vote ranges from 10% to 12.8%.

On the party vote, the National Party won a majority in the North-East and the South, and won a plurality of the vote, with 44.6%, in the North-West. Even in the North-West, this was more than twice the vote for the Labour Party.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRNNZF
North-East59.7420.0612.2552.7816.4912.049.1210,60533.56
South60.5620.9510.0551.7115.569.7712.167,24622.93
North-West51.1025.0512.8244.6420.1512.2411.536,00419.00
Other votes56.7421.6413.2349.4118.9712.908.857,74924.52
National party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
New Zealand First party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.
New Zealand First party votes in Northland at the 2011 general election.