Northcote – NZ 2014

NAT 29.00% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Jonathan Coleman, since 2005.

Geography
Northern suburbs of Auckland. Northcote covers the suburbs of Beachhaven, Birkdale, Birkenhead, Glenfield and Northcote: all on the northern side of Auckland Harbour.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Northcote was first created prior to the 1996 election. The seat was held by Labour from 1999 to 2005, and has otherwise been held by the National Party. The seat partly replaced the seat of Birkenhead, which had existed from 1969 to 1996. That seat had only been won by Labour at three elections, and was dominated by National.

Ian Revell won Birkenhead in 1990. He was re-elected in 1993, and moved to Northcote in 1996. In addition to Revell, Alliance candidate Grant Gillon was elected on the party list.

In 1999, Revell lost to Labour’s Ann Hartley. Revell was not on the National list so did not return to Parliament, but Gillon returned for a second and final term as an Alliance list MP.

Hartley was re-elected in 2002, but lost in 2005 to National candidate Jonathan Coleman. Hartley served as a list MP for one term, retiring early in 2008.

Coleman won by a 7% margin in 2005, which was increased to a massive 26.9% margin in 2008, and then increased further to 29% in 2011.

Coleman has served as a minister since the 2008 election, and since 2011 he holds the Defence and State Services portfolios.

Candidates

Assessment
Northcote is a seat that has always trended towards the National Party, and will usually only be viable for the Labour Party when they are performing very strongly. Coleman has built his margin to almost unassailable levels, so it is unlikely to change hands in 2014.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Jonathan Coleman National 18,90858.46+0.5917,26352.26+1.85
Wendy Gillon Labour 9,52929.46-1.518,26425.02-4.72
Vernon Tava Green 1,8905.84-0.043,61410.94+4.25
Dion JelleyNew Zealand First7322.26+2.261,8655.65+2.48
Matthew WebsterConservative5931.83+1.838242.49+2.49
Leo BiggsLegalise Cannabis2890.89+0.891810.55+0.16
Timothy KronfeldACT1850.57-1.344841.47-3.84
Steven DromgoolUnited Future1130.35-0.061930.58-0.40
Peter LintonLibertarianz1050.32+0.10370.11+0.01
Māori1820.55-0.09
Mana1030.31+0.31
Alliance100.03+0.01
Democrats100.03-0.01
Polling places in Northcote at the 2011 general election. Birkdale in yellow, Birkenhead in green, Glenfield in blue, Northcote in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Northcote at the 2011 general election. Birkdale in yellow, Birkenhead in green, Glenfield in blue, Northcote in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Northcote have been divided into four areas, based on the four key suburbs: Birkdale in the west, Birkenhead in the south, Glenfield in the north, Northcote in the east. Beachhaven is included in Birkdale.

National won large majorities of 63-65% of the electorate vote and 56-59% of the party vote in Northcote and Birkenhead. National also topped the poll in Glenfield and Birkdale, with Glenfield having a stronger National vote than Birkdale. The National margin over Labour on the electorate vote ranged from 31.4% in Birkenhead to 10.6% in Birkdale.

The Green Party came third, with a vote ranging from 8% in Glenfield to 13.1% in Birkenhead.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRNNZF
Northcote63.4226.105.0756.5422.2510.315.178,56726.49
Birkdale47.8837.276.8142.5530.2512.717.586,06918.76
Birkenhead65.0023.636.5058.6318.1613.104.505,48916.97
Glenfield55.7132.204.9049.3629.308.106.294,35113.45
Other votes58.1729.656.0152.2826.3410.365.147,86824.33
National party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Northcote at the 2011 general election.