New Plymouth – NZ 2014

NAT 14.44% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Jonathan Young, since 2008.

Other local MPs

  • Andrew Little (Labour), list MP since 2011.

Geography
New Plymouth and surrounding areas at the western end of North Island, to the north and west of Mount Taranaki. The electorate covers western parts of the New Plymouth council area, including New Plymouth, Bell Block and Waitara, as well as northwestern parts of the South Taranaki council area.

Map of New Plymouth's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of New Plymouth’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
New Plymouth’s southwestern boundary previously followed the New Plymouth council boundary, but expanded to include a small part of the South Taranaki council area. These changes increased the National margin from 12.9% to 14.4%.

History
The New Plymouth electorate existed from 1853 to 1896, and again continuously since 1928. New Plymouth has shifted back and forth between the major parties throughout the twentieth century.

Labour’s Harry Duynhoven won New Plymouth off the National Party in 1987. He lost in 1990 to the National Party’s John Armstrong, but won the seat back in 1993.

In 1996, the neighbouring seat of Taranaki was abolished, and National MP Roger Maxwell shifted to run in New Plymouth. Maxwell had held Taranaki since 1984. Maxwell lost, but retained a seat in Parliament on the National party list. Maxwell had served as a minister since 1990, but lost his ministerial position after the 1996 election. He retired in 1999.

Duynhoven was re-elected in New Plymouth in 1999, 2002 and 2005. He served as a minister in the Labour government.

In 2008, Duynhoven was defeated by National candidate Jonathan Young. Duynhoven did not stand as a party list candidate, and so didn’t return to Parliament. He served as Mayor of New Plymouth from 2010 to 2013.

Jonathan Young had only defeated Duynhoven by 105 votes. In 2011, he defeated Labour candidate Andrew White by 12.9%. White was elected on the Labour party list.

Candidates

  • Jamie Dombroski (Legalise Cannabis #9)
  • James Gray (ACT #28)
  • Andrew Little (Labour #11), list MP.
  • Sarah Roberts (Green #51)
  • Angela Storr (Conservative)
  • Jonathan Young (National #38), Member for New Plymouth.

Assessment
New Plymouth was Labour-held until the defeat of the last Labour government in 2008, so despite a large 14.5% margin, it’s the kind of seat that could be vulnerable if Labour is on track to win power nationally. Short of a strong national swing to Labour, however, New Plymouth is likely to stay with National.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Jonathan Young National 17,64453.31+5.1353.9218,07353.26+2.7953.57
Andrew Little Labour 13,37440.41-7.4739.488,76125.82-5.6025.42
Geoff Steedman Green 1,2773.86+3.864.013,2769.65+3.239.58
Jamie DombroskiLegalise Cannabis4391.33+1.331.271780.52+0.050.54
Rusty KaneIndependent3611.09+1.091.05
New Zealand First0.222,1376.30+2.256.41
Conservative6671.97+1.971.93
ACT0.033471.02-2.161.08
Māori2070.61-0.140.62
United Future1540.45-0.200.45
Mana720.21+0.210.22
Libertarianz300.09+0.010.08
Democrats0.01190.06-0.070.07
Alliance110.03-0.060.03
Polling places in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election. East in green, New Plymouth East in red, New Plymouth West in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election. East in green, New Plymouth East in red, New Plymouth West in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in New Plymouth have been split into four areas. Most of the population of the electorate lives in the New Plymouth urban area. These polling places have been split into New Plymouth East and New Plymouth West. The remainder of the seat has been split between those polling places east of New Plymouth and those west of New Plymouth.

National won the electorate vote in all four areas, with a vote ranging from 48.5% in New Plymouth West to 63.2% in the west.

On the party vote, National again topped the vote, with a vote ranging from 49.3% in New Plymouth West to 60.1% in the west. Labour’s party vote ranged from 15.1% in the west to 29.7% in New Plymouth West.

The Green Party came third, with a vote ranging from 6.5% in the east to 12.9% in the west. New Zealand First came fourth, and outpolled the Green Party in the east, with a vote ranging from 5.9% in New Plymouth East to 8.3% in the east.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABNATLABGRNNZF
New Plymouth West48.5145.5349.2929.659.436.519,97228.95
New Plymouth East54.0940.1055.0924.5410.035.908,95025.99
East55.6238.1754.0325.406.518.296,44018.70
West63.2025.8360.1115.1212.866.292,7998.13
Other votes56.4236.4554.7824.5710.835.126,28218.24
National party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in New Plymouth at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in the New Plymouth urban area at the 2011 general election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Oh, yay, another dose of Jonathon “Skynet” Young, whose only contribution so far has been to make NZ the laughing stock of the IT-literate world.

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