Ilam – NZ 2014

NAT 40.07% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Gerry Brownlee, since 1996.

Other local MPs
Kennedy Graham (Green), list MP since 2008.

Geography
North-western suburbs of Christchurch. Ilam covers the suburbs of Avondale, Bishopdale, Brynwr, Burnside, Fendalton, Ilam, Merivale and Papanui.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Ilam has existed since 1996. It largely replaced Fendalton, which had existed for all but nine years from 1946 to 1996. In all of that time, both Fendalton and Ilam have always been won by the National Party.

Gerry Brownlee won Ilam in 1996. Brownlee has been re-elected in Ilam five more times.

Brownlee served as deputy leader of the National Party from 2004 to 2006. He has served as a minister in the National government since 2008.

Two other candidates have run in Ilam and then won a seat as a list MP. Marc Alexander was elected as a United Future list MP in 2002, and served one term. He ran for the National Party in 2008.

Kennedy Graham ran in Ilam in 2008 and 2011, and was elected as a Green Party list MP at both elections.

Candidates

Assessment
Ilam is a very safe National seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Gerry Brownlee National 20,07060.40+3.5119,93458.34+5.52
John Parsons Labour 6,75820.34-3.786,55219.18-8.31
Kennedy Graham Green 5,09915.35+3.104,58613.42+5.22
Roger LarkinsConservative7672.31+2.317142.09+2.09
Vanessa RobertsUnited Future2800.84-0.392470.72-0.67
Gareth VealeACT2520.76-1.383941.15-2.69
New Zealand First1,3503.95+1.54
Māori1710.50-0.03
Legalise Cannabis1060.31-0.01
Mana530.16+0.16
Libertarianz290.08+0.03
Alliance170.05-0.04
Democrats160.05+0.03
Polling places in Ilam at the 2011 general election. North-East in red, North-West in blue, South-East in green, South-West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Ilam at the 2011 general election. North-East in red, North-West in blue, South-East in green, South-West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ilam have been divided into four parts: north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west.

The National Party won a majority of both electorate and party votes in all four areas. The National vote is lowest in the north-west and highest in the south-east, which is the only area where the National Party polled over 60% (and close to 70%).

The Labour Party polled over 20% of the electorate vote in three areas, and over 20% of the party vote in two areas and just under 20% in a third. The Labour vote is much lower in the south-east, around 11-12%.

The Green Party’s vote ranged from 16% of the party vote (and 17.8% of the electorate vote) in the north-west to 11% of the party vote and 12% of the electorate vote in the north-east. The Green Party outpolled the Labour Party in the south-east.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRN
North-East57.1026.2712.1154.7923.2811.277,25921.85
South-West58.3820.7316.4756.2619.6614.496,55219.72
South-East69.9811.6215.2668.8411.8911.945,81917.51
North-West55.4023.0917.8352.9822.5915.894,10512.35
Other votes60.6319.6916.0358.4218.6814.129,49128.56
National party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
National electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Labour electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Green electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.
Green electorate votes in Ilam at the 2011 general election.