Hamilton West – NZ 2014

NAT 13.97% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Tim Macindoe, since 2008.

Other local MPs

  • Sue Moroney (Labour), list MP since 2011.

Geography
Western suburbs of Hamilton West. The electorate’s southern and western boundaries follow the boundaries of Hamilton City, and its eastern boundary runs along the Waikato River. The electorate includes a small part of the Waikato council area. The main suburbs are Deanwell, Dinsdale, Forest Lake, Frankton, Glenview, Hamilton City, Hamilton West, Maeroa, Melville, Nawton, Pukete, St Andrews and Whitiora.

Map of Hamilton West’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Hamilton West’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Hamilton West previously included rural areas to the west of Hamilton, which have been transferred to Taranaki-King Country. In exchange, Hamilton West expanded north, gaining territories east of the Waikato River at the northern end of the Hamilton area from Hamilton East and Waikato. These changes cut the National margin slightly from 14.2% to 14%.

History
The electorate of Hamilton West has existed continuously since 1969. The seat has always been a marginal seat between Labour and National, with no sitting MP winning no more than three terms before the other party won the seat.

Labour’s Martin Gallagher won Hamilton West off National’s Grant Thomas in 1993. Gallagher lost the seat to National candidate Bob Simcock in 1996.

Simcock lost to Gallagher in 1999, but stayed in Parliament as a National list MP. He lost his seat in 2002, and served as Mayor of Hamilton from 2007 to 2010.

In addition to Gallagher and Simcock, New Zealand First candidate Neil Kirton won a list seat in 1996. He became an independent in 1998 and didn’t run for re-election.

Martin Gallagher was returned in 2002, and New Zealand First candidate Bill Gudgeon won a seat in Parliament on the party list. Gudgeon served one term in Parliament.

Gallagher won a third term in 2005, and in 2008 he lost to National’s Tim Macindoe.

Macindoe was re-elected in 2011, and Labour candidate Sue Moroney won a list seat.

Candidates

  • Bill Gudgeon (New Zealand First #24)
  • Tim Macindoe (National), Member for Hamilton West.
  • Tony McKenna (Conservative)
  • Sue Moroney (Labour #10), list MP.
  • Sara Muti (ACT #10)
  • Mischele Rhodes (Democrats #19)
  • Richard Te Ao (Māori)

Assessment
Hamilton West is held by a sizeable 14% margin. The seat may become vulnerable if Labour is on track to form government, but Macindoe is still the favourite to hold the seat.

The seat is relatively strong for New Zealand First, who’ll be hoping for a strong result if they are to have a chance of getting over 5%.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
Tim Macindoe National 16,58753.26+4.4753.1515,30047.74+1.7647.77
Sue Moroney Labour 12,16939.07-4.8339.189,34229.15-6.5029.36
Bill GudgeonNew Zealand First1,2944.16+4.164.052,4757.72+3.447.50
Pat GregoryConservative7442.39+2.392.381,0223.19+3.193.23
Robert CurtisIndependent1590.51+0.510.49
Tim WikiriwhiIndependent1150.37+0.370.34
Les PortDemocrats750.24+0.240.23380.12+0.040.12
Green 0.142,8348.84+3.768.78
ACT0.032920.91-2.830.92
United Future2270.71-0.410.72
Māori1880.59-0.480.57
Legalise Cannabis1750.55+0.100.53
Mana1150.36+0.360.37
Libertarianz310.10+0.010.09
Alliance100.030.000.03
Pirate0.01
Polling places in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election. Central in green, North in orange, South in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election. Central in green, North in orange, South in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Hamilton West have been divided into four areas. Two polling places in the rural north of the seat have been grouped as ‘north’.

The urban parts of Hamilton West have been split between West, Central and South.

The National Party won the electorate vote in all four areas, with a margin ranging from 1.9% in the south to 57.5% in the north.

On the party vote, the National Party polled slightly more poorly, but Labour also polled less than the electorate vote, and National comfortably won the party vote in all four areas.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABNZFNATLABGRNNZF
West47.4242.675.8242.7832.757.849.709,08629.26
Central58.0535.843.1552.8225.469.206.727,84725.27
South47.3145.413.5941.8034.089.447.775,84918.84
North75.4818.020.7869.8714.584.982.801,4154.56
Other votes55.5037.423.7849.0928.419.706.316,85522.08
National party votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
National candidate votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.
Labour candidate votes in Hamilton West at the 2011 general election.

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