Dunedin South – NZ 2014

LAB 12.12% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Clare Curran, since 2008.

Geography
South Island. Dunedin South lies entirely within the City of Dunedin, covering rural parts of the city to the west of the urban centre, as well as southern parts of the Dunedin urban area, as well as the Otago Peninsula.

Redistribution
No change.

History
An electorate of Dunedin South previously existed from 1881 to 1890, and from 1905 to 1946. The current electorate was created in 1996, and has always been held by Labour. The new electorate of Dunedin South primarily replaced St Kilda, which had existed from 1946 to 1996 and was Labour-held except for two terms from 1951 to 1957.

St Kilda was held by Labour’s William Fraser from 1957 (when he won the seat off the National Party until his retirement in 1981.

St Kilda was won in 1981 by Michael Cullen. Cullen served as a junior minister in the Labour government from 1987 to 1990, and then continued as a frontbencher after Labour lost power in 1990.

In 1996, St Kilda was abolished and Cullen was elected in Dunedin South, which took in much of the same territory. Cullen was elected deputy Labour leader in 1996, and continued in that role until 2008.

In 1999, Cullen chose to run instead on the Labour list and not in Dunedin South. Labour won power at the 1999 election, and Cullen took on the role of Minister of Finance. Cullen was re-elected on the Labour list at the 2002, 2005 and 2008 elections. He retired from Parliament in 2009.

Labour candidate David Benson-Pope won Dunedin South in 1999, and was re-elected in 2002 and 2005.

Benson-Pope served as a minister in the Labour government from 2004 to 2007, barring a short period before the 2005 election.

In 2007, Benson-Pope was forced to resign as a minister over allegations that a staff member had forced the sacking of a public servant in the department.

In 2008, Benson-Pope sought Labour’s nomination to run in Dunedin South, but was defeated by Clare Curran.

Curran won Dunedin South in 2008, and was re-elected in 2011.

Candidates

  • Julian Crawford (Legalise Cannabis #1)
  • Clare Curran (Labour), Member for Dunedin South.
  • Shane Gallagher (Green #43)
  • Cindy Kerr (Conservative)
  • Andrew LePine (Internet #30)
  • Colin Nicholls (ACT #36)
  • Warren Voight (Democrats #5)
  • Hamish Walker (National #65)

Assessment
Dunedin South is a reasonably safe Labour seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Clare Curran Labour 16,84448.89-3.4012,32634.97-11.76
Joanne Hayes National 12,66936.77+2.0514,16340.18+5.97
Shane Gallagher Green 3,1979.28+2.444,79813.61+5.64
Randall RatanaNew Zealand First9792.84+2.842,5227.15+2.59
Warren VoightDemocrats2380.69+0.221260.36+0.18
Kimberly HannahACT2150.62-0.812100.60-1.51
Robert WansinkRestore All Things in Christ1670.48+0.18
Kay MurrayAlliance1420.41-0.13580.16-0.03
Conservative5201.48+1.48
United Future1860.53-0.21
Legalise Cannabis1570.45+0.06
Māori1070.30-0.13
Mana620.18+0.18
Libertarianz160.05+0.01
Polling places in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election. Abbotsford-Mosgiel in green, Dunedin East in blue, Dunedin West in orange, Peninsula in yellow, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election. Abbotsford-Mosgiel in green, Dunedin East in blue, Dunedin West in orange, Peninsula in yellow, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Dunedin South have been divided into five parts. Polling places in the urbanised part of Dunedin, have been split into three parts:

  • Abbotsford-Mosgiel – Abbotsford, East Taieri, Fairfield, Green Island, Mosgiel and Wingatui.
  • Dunedin East – Andersons Bay, Musselburgh, South Dunedin, St Kilda, Tainui and Waverley.
  • Dunedin West – Calton Hill, Caversham, Concord, Corstorphine, Forbury Corner, Macandrew Bay and St Clair.

Those polling places on the Otago Peninsula have been grouped as “Peninsula”, and the rural west of the seat has been grouped as “West”.

Labour won a majority of the electorate vote in Dunedin East, Dunedin West and the Peninsula. Labour also won a plurality of the party vote in those three areas, with as little as 35.2% on the Peninsula.

In Abbotsford-Mosgiel, Labour won a slim plurality of the electorate vote (44.9% to 43.7%), while National won a larger plurality of the party vote (47.2% to 32.4%).

In the West, National won a majority of both the electorate and party vote.

The Green Party came third in the electorate, with quite a large party vote. The Green party vote ranged from 8.7% in Abbotsford-Mosgiel to 25.6% in Peninsula.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATGRNLABNATGRNNZF
Abbotsford-Mosgiel44.9343.676.3632.3947.208.657.7910,50830.50
Dunedin East52.5132.859.7037.7136.8014.436.998,11223.55
Dunedin West54.9929.3411.0439.2232.8316.657.265,59616.24
West34.6651.529.2223.8853.3511.676.132,0405.92
Peninsula56.7525.1513.8535.1528.6925.597.681,4594.24
Other votes48.2634.9610.9035.4737.9315.766.506,73619.55
National party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in central parts of Dunedin South at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in the Abbotsford-Mosgiel area at the 2011 general election.

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