Dunedin North – NZ 2014

LAB 9.12% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
David Clark, since 2011.

Other local MPs

  • Metiria Turei (Green), since 2002.
  • Michael Woodhouse (National), since 2008.

Geography
Northern suburbs of Dunedin, and rural areas to the north of Dunedin urban area, including Port Chalmers. Most of the electorate lies within the Dunedin council area, as well as a small part of Waitaki council area.

Map of Dunedin North's 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Dunedin North’s 2011 and 2014 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Dunedin North maintained its southern and western boundaries, and expanded to the north. The previous northern boundary aligned with Dunedin council area. The Labour margin was reduced from 11.9% to 9.1%.

History
The northern Dunedin electorate has existed continuously since 1905. In the last 100 years, Labour has only failed to win the seat on two occasions: in 1925 and 1975.

Labour’s Pete Hodgson won Dunedin North in 1990. Hodgson was re-elected in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008. Hodgson served as a minister from 1999 to 2008.

In 1999, National candidate Katherine Rich was elected on the party list. Rich was re-elected to the party list in 2002 and 2005, standing in Dunedin North at both elections.

At the 2008 election, both the second- and third-placed candidates won spots on the party list. National candidate Michael Woodhouse was elected to a first term as a list MP. Green list MP Metiria Turei was elected to a third term in Parliament, after previously running in Tāmaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tonga.

In addition, ACT candidate Hilary Calvert filled a vacancy in Parliament in 2010, but did not run in 2011.

Woodhouse and Turei were both re-elected in 2011 after running in Dunedin North. Woodhouse has served as a minister in the National-led government since 2013. Turei has served as Green Party co-leader since 2009.

In 2011, Pete Hodgson retired, and Dunedin North was won by Labour’s David Clark, with Woodhouse again coming second and Turei coming third.

Candidates

  • David Clark (Labour #26), Member for Dunedin North.
  • Jonathan Daley (Conservative)
  • Adrian Graamans (Independent)
  • Abe Gray (Legalise Cannabis #2)
  • Stan Lusby (Independent)
  • Miriam Mowat (Democrats #24)
  • Robert Stewart (Internet #26)
  • Metiria Turei (Green #1), list MP.
  • Michael Woodhouse (National #20), list MP.

Assessment
Dunedin North is held by the Labour Party by 9.1%, which is probably enough to ensure David Clark’s safe hold on the seat.

On the party vote, Labour and National are about even in the electorate, but overall the centre-left dominates the electorate thanks to a massive 23.4% vote for the Green Party, whose co-leader Metiria Turei has run in Dunedin North at the last two elections.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
David Clark Labour 12,97644.25-8.3743.1210,12733.80-10.4433.02
Michael Woodhouse National 9,48732.35+1.7133.999,70732.39+3.0433.61
Metiria Turei Green 5,72119.51+8.4218.977,01023.39+7.5822.78
Julian CrawfordLegalise Cannabis3981.36-0.131.281720.57+0.140.56
Victor BillotAlliance2100.72-0.660.68500.17-0.150.16
Jeremy NobleDemocrats1960.67+0.350.65620.21+0.100.21
Peter GeorgeUnited Future1760.60-0.100.571830.61-0.330.61
Guy McCallumACT1590.54-1.220.542180.73-1.540.80
New Zealand First1,7065.69+2.275.72
Conservative0.104051.35+1.351.45
Mana1810.60+0.600.60
Māori1260.42-0.280.40
Libertarianz180.06+0.030.06
Independent0.10
Polling places in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election. Dunedin Central in yellow, Dunedin East in green, Dunedin West in blue, Port Chalmers in red, North in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election. Dunedin Central in yellow, Dunedin East in green, Dunedin West in blue, Port Chalmers in red, North in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Dunedin North have been divided into five areas.

Three of these areas are in the Dunedin urban area, covering central, east and west parts of the suburbs in this electorate.

To the north-east of Dunedin is the town of Port Chalmers. The remainder of booths north of Port Chalmers have been grouped as ‘North’.

Labour won the electorate vote in three out of five areas. Labour won a 55% majority in Port Chalmers, and 47-49% in Dunedin East and Dunedin West.

National won 48% in the north, giving them a 16% margin. National also narrowly outpolled Labour in the central suburbs of Dunedin.

Labour and National won the same areas on the party vote. The Green Party won a large proportion of the party vote, ranging from 14.3% in Dunedin West to 27.9% in Dunedin East. The Green Party outpolled National in Dunedin East and Port Chalmers.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
LABNATGRNLABNATGRN
Dunedin Central40.3940.4416.1730.1140.3120.447,06422.79
Dunedin East47.2525.8622.8335.0126.5327.896,86322.14
Dunedin West48.9532.9714.0841.3432.1814.314,78015.42
North32.1948.2515.4222.7844.2419.602,9709.58
Port Chalmers55.4319.8819.8843.4318.6525.661,5645.05
Other votes40.0433.3222.3130.7733.5926.097,75825.03
Labour party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.
Green party votes in urban parts of Dunedin North at the 2011 general election.

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