Clutha-Southland – NZ 2014

NAT 52.06% vs LAB

Incumbent MP
Bill English, since 1996. Previously Member for Wallace 1990-1996.

Geography
Southern end of South Island. The electorate covers all of Clutha and Gore council areas, most of the Southland council area, and parts of the Queenstown-Lakes council area.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Clutha-Southland was created in the 1996 redistribution. The seat has always been held by the National Party.

National MP Bill English has held Clutha-Southland since its creation in 1996. English previously held Wallace from 1990 until its abolition in 1996. Wallace covered a lot of the same areas as Clutha-Southland, and was held by the National Party continuously from the 1930s until 1996, and had been held by the National Party’s predecessors since the beginning of organised political parties.

English served as a minister in the National government from 1996 to 1999, and has continued on the National frontbench ever since.

English was elected as Leader of the Opposition in 2001, and led National to its worst-ever defeat at the 2002 election. He was replaced as National leader in 2003.

English became deputy leader of the National Party in 2006. He has served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance since National won power in 2008.

Candidates
Sitting National MP Bill English will be running as a list-only candidate, and will not be running for re-election in Clutha-Southland.

Assessment
Clutha-Southland is a very safe seat.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
CandidatePartyVotes%SwingVotes%Swing
Bill English National 21,37568.83+0.9620,02062.89+3.03
Tat Loo Labour 5,20716.77-4.695,16016.21-7.73
Rachael Goldsmith Green 2,6338.48+1.572,7518.64+3.54
Donald NicolsonACT7962.56+0.795831.83-2.06
William CalverleyConservative7872.53+2.539923.12+3.12
Anthony CorbettSovereignty Party1300.42+0.42
Robert MillsDemocrats1280.41+0.41750.24+0.18
New Zealand First1,5564.89+2.02
United Future2590.81+0.06
Legalise Cannabis2100.66+0.27
Māori1360.43+0.01
Mana480.15+0.15
Libertarianz240.08+0.03
Alliance170.05-0.13
Polling places in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election. Clutha in green, Gore in red, Queenstown in yellow, Southland in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election. Clutha in green, Gore in red, Queenstown in yellow, Southland in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Clutha-Southland have been divided into four areas. Polling places have been grouped along local council lines: Clutha, Southland, Queenstown and Gore.

The National Party won large majorities in all four areas. The National electorate vote ranged from 64.5% in Clutha to 74.9% in Southland. The National party vote ranged from 57.5% in Clutha to 69.9% in Southland.

The Labour electorate vote ranged from 11.5% in Southland to 22.8% in Clutha, with a similar trend on the party vote. In general Clutha and Gore are slightly more progressive than Southland and Queenstown, but still National-dominated.

The Green vote is much higher at 15% in Queenstown, compared to 5-6% in the other areas.

Voter groupElectorate votesParty votesTotal% of votes
NATLABGRNNATLABGRN
Clutha64.5322.806.4657.4721.516.357,30823.53
Southland74.8611.475.8669.8711.136.076,69521.56
Queenstown69.2412.7515.0564.2012.4015.235,05816.29
Gore64.6221.255.8058.2420.575.894,96916.00
Other votes70.2215.2610.2564.2815.1510.687,02622.62
National party votes in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election.
National party votes in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election.
Labour party votes in Clutha-Southland at the 2011 general election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Again with these weird Labour blips. In the middle of Southland, they get 25% and 40% (presumably in whichever big town that is), surrounded by single figure results. Meanwhile in the east, there’s a 1% booth (not even the only one of those in the electorate) right next to a swathe of coastal booths where Labour gets between 25% and 40%. What’s up with that?

    Any Kiwis lurking, I’d love to know. That sort of thing doesn’t happen in Australia unless there’s an impassable mountain range running down the middle of the electorate (as should be obvious by the amount of Aussie tourists in Queenstown, we don’t have many mountains on the West Island) or some specific town-related reason (see Collie in WA, etc). Is it to do with the fact votes aren’t necessarily tied to keeping a particular MP in parliament?

  2. Many of these polling places see less than 100 votes, one as low as 14.

    Many polling booths are completely rural (eg. Hillend which is the easternmost 1% for Labour, Five Rivers is the other 1%). Many of the rural booths received only 1 or 2 votes for Labour. In Orepuki, every vote was for National, but then again there were only 19 voters.

    The 40% for Labour correspond to areas (Ohai, Kaitangata) whose economy is based on coalmining and have traditionally had an associated union movement. These areas are nowadays socioeconomically disadvantaged. They are not large towns, approx 400 and 800 residents resp.

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