Monaro – NSW 2023

The previous mp john barilaro .has done his successor no favours here. If the selections cmtee enquiry had occurred before the by-election what would have happened?

Bruz isn’t helping but I suspect it won’t just have impact here, but I suspect Bruz is popular in the country but not in the metropolitan which is where jordies and most of his followers are from.

If Labor couldn’t win this back then, then why would they now?

Because the climate has worsened massively since the by-elections. More scandals more problems. Look at Eden Monaro figures 2022 would easily translate to an alp win.

<1% either way. If federal figures were translated here, this would be a fairly safe ALP seat, but overcoming an 11.6% margin is no easy feat, even with a by-election. Do expect the seat to trend to the ALP in the future though, especially if the National brand ever collapses here in favour of the Liberals

One thing about Monaro is that an incumbent can entrench themselves and often swings against the state trend for example 2015 and 2019. Also in 2011 Monaro was the only seat >10% margin where Labor and many observers though they actually could retain as they had Steve Whan. The swing in 2011 in Monaro was much less than the statewide average.

Agree Nimalan, the state seat of Monaro is different from its federal counterpart (Eden-Monaro) in the fact that even though it is a bellwether, a popular incumbent can have some personal vote that will offset the general partisan swing.

In that sense, John Barilaro was considered popular locally before he was embroiled in various scandals. Likewise, current incumbent Nichole Overall is considered ‘green’ and scandal free due to her being new to the role so she should have some personal support that will balance any overall swing to Labor, resulting in her retaining the seat with only a small swing (1-2%) to Labor relative to the 5% by-election margin.

This would be close and very likely, a bellwether. Labor could win with the right candidate.

Also, since the last state election, Queanbeyan (the LGA) has grown rapidly, mainly because it is more affordable to APS workers than Canberra is and also it attracts tree-changers. Queanbeyan is the home of many APS workers who value integrity and political transparency and may punish the Nats. In fact, across the electorate, people might be really ashamed by their former MP, and unfortunately for Nichole Overall, it might take the gloss away from her.

Any public service workers have probably applied for jobs and know what a merit based selection is. Mr Barilaro ‘s Was not

Regarding the growth of Queanbyean from a purely demographic view the Nats have done well here considering it is basically a suburb of Canberra. In the Tweed thread i pointed out that Tweed Heads and Queanbyean were two areas despite urbanisation that the Nats have done well. I am not not going to predict the effect of the JB Scandal on the result here, what i am thinking if maybe longer term that the Nats may contest Eden Monaro instead of the Libs. This is an area where Federal and State results can vary significantly.

Monaro at a state level tends to be almost bellwether…… so if There is a 6% plus swing to labor will go super close. I think Barilaro was a net liability to the government at the time he left. But his soft landing escape to New York…. did not happen … and the inquiry finds more and more. Even Barilaro’s most recent job with Coronation Property…. brought unwelcome attention to that companies attempt to appear clean… and down play their possible links to organised crime.

Does anyone think the new incident involving Bruz could affect this seats outcome in March?

I would think Nats are safe here? The byelection was a much better opportunity for a pick up.

Barilaro is controversial but he’s long gone. The trade job story would have made it to more kitchen tables here than in Sydney, but the issue came and went and they have a new MP now who has had a chance to build a profile. More and more the Monaro seems like a generic Nat voting area that can’t be outdone by the “greater Canberra” vote in Queanbeyan (but CAN with the sea changer vote).

Queanbeyan maintains some real cultural differences with Canberra that I still don’t understand having lived in Canberra my whole life. You can tell at work who lives in Queanbeyan, and it’s not a class thing.

Agree John without barilaro in the contest, new national party mp Nichole overall will be favoured to retain the seat with negligible swing against her.

Queanbeyan is the basis of
This seat which means lots
Of public servants who have
Contested positions and know
What a rorted selection is
And Barilaro ‘s Waa a Rort
With a capital R.. this
Will magnify the swing. I would
Be worried if I Waa the np
Mp for this seat.. remember
Mr B is a net liability to the
Coalition and the haze around
Him was not an obvious
Factor in the by-elections

Maybe out of left field but there
Is a massive advantage for
The liberals but only if the outpoll Labor on primary votes
Nearly all polls post Barilaro scandal show Labor outpolling
The coalition on primary votes
And an approx 6% 2pp swing
This means all things being equal seats like Riverstone and
CAMDEN will go down the wire.
I expect seats like Parramatta and Penrith will be lost to the
Liberals one impacted by loss of a sitting mp and demographic change Parramatta the other being the small margin and the scandals of the sitting mp Mr Ayres I if I
Waa the liberal party would have found a alternate candidate. People do not understand how opv works since 2011 it has benefited the
Liberals but only if they (coalition) outpoll Labor.. the swing reverses this I labor’s favour. I will illustrate with East Hills from 2019. On primary votes the liberals outpolled Labor by 2% so Labor needed to
Catch up from behind. Very difficult. Left of centre candidates polled about 12% now because of lots of exhausted votes Labor only only clawed back 1.5% and lost by 0.5%. Now boost the alp primary vote by 2% which means they poll even with the libs now the liberal party needs to catch up from behind but the lead is now zero and the alp
Wins by 1.5% opv also harms where the vote is split eg one north coast seat.. this same process will occur on the North shore where a teal or competent
Independent runs. If they outpoll the liberal and run second they are likely to win. They don’t need alp prefences all that is needed is that alp green preferences exhaust and
Don’t go to the liberal.

It’s been reported former Canberra Raiders player Terry Campese will seek out preselection to be the Labor candidate for Monaro. The way statements have been put out there from Campese and Chris Minns this looks like a down deal. But it probably has to be with the election in March and it being a pivotal seat.

Terry Campese looks like the Labor candidate. It’s mentioned on Chris Minns’s social media.

Many professional athletes have become politicians by taking seats off their opponents. Sam Groth, Zali Steggall, John Alexander, David Pocock.

Here’s something that Ben Raue or other election analysts can probably answer – do professional athletes tend to get bigger than average swings?

Votante, Yes. It also isn’t just the case in Australia. There was a guy (olympian) who defeated the conservative deputy leader at the 2019 Canadian election.

I think it’s the fact that they are “not a politician” appeals to people. Usually most politicians are businessmen or lawyers before they get elected, but being a sportsperson or an astronaut, is something special.

Labor has an excellent chance to win. But the seat is uncertain

@Daniel T. There may be a lot of sports stars who have contested but lost and unfortunately, people don’t remember who came second at the seat-level in elections.

I agree that their fame and non-political background appeal to people. I would class medical doctors as a popular profession amongst voters too. I’ve noticed that they’ve also scored big swings.

Sports stars have the advantage of name recognition and media attention. Their backgrounds are well-documented already. Also, they can sway their fans to vote for them even if their fans normally swing-vote or lean to their main opposing party at elections. Sport stars running for major parties tend to run in marginal seats so they can use their star power to their advantage.

I was half expecting Labor to run dead here.

Now the Nats have a seat to lose. I expect this election to come down to individual seats more than statewide factors and Labor have put in a case to add this one to their column, even with the Monaro trending Nats. I don’t think sports stars win by default, but the party of Barilaro and Joyce are not in a good position to tell people to vote for serious professional candidates. The Nats are used to winning seats on identity rather than policy, but now the “Canberra Raiders fan” identity is going to mess with that.

ALP gain.

Partially agree John, it depends on how well current incumbent MP Nichole Overall works the community and seat in general. I don’t think it will be a definite Labor gain, but the dynamics have definitely shifted with the ALP nominating a high-profile candidate. Nichole is no longer favoured to win re-election and this seat is now one of the top tier targets for Labor, joining seats like Parramatta, Penrith and Riverstone as ‘must wins’ if Labor is to deprive the Coalition of their majority.

I wonder if the federal Nationals’ opposition to the Voice to parliament has damaged the Nationals brand, at the state level, in the Queanbeyan area.

Was the friendlyjordies incident the main reason Bruz quit politics early? To be completely fair if he had just ignored Jordies instead of making a fuss about it, it would have stopped.

The liberals wanted him out and tried subsequently to get him a job.. I suggest he mishandled the friendly jordies and the police fixated persons unit should have had more sense in their actions

Could Labor get enough swing to overcome the Nats in Monaro? There was a noticeable trend away from Nats at the bi-election which returned Overall for the Nats.
Once proud of a their local member being leader of NSW Nats and Deputy Premier, the community is deeply embarrassed by their guilt through association with ‘Barilaro’.
Is the drop away from the Nat’s as seen at the bi-election a “trend”, or a simple Barilaro correction?

Nichole has no real reason to lose this seat. She’s taken to being an MP like a duck to water and has been fairly effective for a by-election backbencher. The only factor that could prove to bring her down is the shadow of Barilaro hanging over her, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

The Labor candidates recent high profile scandals cannot be helpful.

Should be a Nats hold.

Terry Campese seems set to withdraw today.

What did Terry Campese say or do? I can’t find an article that isn’t without a paywall. Someone who has access could you please tell me?

Time for Mike Kelly to return to politics and run here, he’s the only Labor person who could win this, I’m aware he resigned due to health, but it didn’t stop him from taking a defence lobbying job?

I read from one article that a video or image surfaced of Terry Campese dressing as a partially nude police officer when he attended an adult only party. Also, there was leaked interview transcript where he made comments and/or jokes about a friend currently in jail.

Don’t think Labor was expecting to gain this seat anyways but this is going to be a setback for them. If they couldn’t win it in the by-election, they aren’t going to in 2023.

Terry went to a fancy dress party and didn’t wear a nazi uniform

apparently visited a friend who is in gaol

Is that it? Sure, he probably was not a very strong candidate, but having and visiting a friend who is in prison sets a very questionable precedent when it comes to media take-downs and character assessment. And the costume thing, who cares about that?! Maybe there’s more to come out.

It is noteworthy that the former MP here was certainly no standard bearer for morality in public office.

“Maybe there’s more to come out.” Yes I believe this is what people are saying on the ground.

There apparently a heap more. This was Chris Minns captains pick. Clearly done without any due diligence. Is this egregious laziness one of the character traits he will bring to being Premier?

There are other potential last minute ALP candidates that could put up a fight, like the incumbent QPRC mayor, or Mike Kelly or Steve Whan returning to politics.

But Nats probably have this in the bag now and Labor’s path to victory in the election just narrowed a lot as Goulburn also just got harder to win.

@John

Have you got any source for Mike Kelly or are you just speculating? Kelly seemed pretty intent of getting out of federal parliament for personal reasons resulting in a bye-election. I doubt he would be interested.

Still think Labor are in a chance in this seat if the swing is on despite the setback.

Objectively it appears that this is a national hold but……..
John Barilaro is the alp’s greatest asset in this seat.. the
Eddie Obeid of the coalition

Nope, just trying to imagine anyone who could bring enough profile to win for Labor this close to the election

minns does seem like a weak leader then again perottit is worse all of his hand picked candadates lost eincluding theformer mp he wants to install in upper house desbite a 12 year corear

@ aaron your forgetting this a nationals seat what effects the libs rarely means defeat for the nats. Nats voters don’t usually associate liberal problems with nationls and may not effect that vote and I think the vote was gutted enough last year and I doubt they’ll get another swing like that anyone who was going Labor probly already voted Labor at the by

@John

You called it previous Labor Mp for Monaro Steve Whan is set to be the Labor canidate it was reported in the Dailey Telegraph.

Steve Whan contesting is great and improves labor’s chances massively Basically in 2011 and 2015 he was the candidate against Barilaro and lost narrowly each time I think within a couple of percent. The only good win was in 2019. At a federal level in Eden Monaro this area would also have voted Labor most times since 2011 I find it hard to predict but at the time of the by-elections the margin was over 10% and Barilaro had a good reputation.. this has now largely evaporated. I would rate this seat now as a toss up

Whan is a decent candidate but you wonder if he’s left it a bit too late. Coming in as a second choice with less than a month to go, it’s an uphill climb.

Poor old Steve Whan – Mick backing him was not the news he wanted. I think we all know what that means!
He’s not even the endorsed candidate yet old mate.

Moderate, the topic of this page is the seat of Monaro, not Mick’s past opinions.
I consider this to violate the comments policy:
“Play the ball, not the man. When engaged in discussions with other commenters, you should remain focused on the topic of discussion, and the content of other comments, rather than making personal criticisms.”

yes agree but the nationals and liberals are basickly the same how ever they create there brand basickly over the perseption that appears not to be true that there is a devide between the sity and country and labor egnores ishues not sure whiy they went with Whan he his past role might hurt minns environmental policy on climate change suprised they did not give it to bryse willson again maybi labor could get the popular federal mp Cristy mcbane to help out whan

Whan got crushed the last time he ran, giving up his safe upper house seat to re-run for Monaro.
Can’t see things to be any different; from memory he was fundraising in Sydney the last time around and got a dismal turnout there.
Should probably stick to being an advisor as god help Labor if they take office post March. The talent pool of advisors currently comprises electorate office and union staff who spam post on Poll Bludger and Twitter during work hours.
Seems like Whan is taking one for the team here ala Barry Collier and Peter Beattie.
What is more likely to happen is an Eden Monaro adjustment at the next federal election where the member has an overinflated margin due to an unpopular Morrison government.
Monaro will be an easy Nationals retain