LIB 10.5%
Incumbent MP
Alex Hawke, since 2007.
Geography
North-Western Sydney. Mitchell mainly covers parts of the Hills as well as northern parts of the City of Parramatta, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Rouse Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville.
Redistribution
Mitchell shifted south, picking up West Pennant Hills from Berowra and losing Box Hill, Gables, Nelson and Rouse Hill to Greenway. These changes slightly cut the Liberal margin from 10.7% to 10.5%.
Mitchell was created for the 1949 election. It has almost always been won by the Liberal Party, except for two elections where the ALP won the seat, and it has become a solidly Liberal seat over recent decades.
Mitchell was won by Liberal candidate Roy Wheeler in 1949. Wheeler was re-elected at every election in the 1950s, but lost Mitchell to ALP candidate John Armitage. Armitage only managed to hold on to the seat for one term, losing it to Liberal candidate Leslie Irwin in 1963, although he later held the safe Labor seat of Chifley from 1969 to 1983.
Irwin held Mitchell from 1963 until the 1972 election, when he was swept aside with the election of the Whitlam government, with Mitchell being won by Labor candidate Alfred Ashley-Brown. Ashley-Brown lost in 1974 to Liberal candidate Alan Cadman.
Cadman held Mitchell for over thirty years without rising to much prominence in the Liberal Party, and by the mid-2000s was one of only three MPs remaining from the time of the Whitlam government, along with Prime Minister John Howard and Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. Cadman served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final years of the Fraser government and the early years of the Howard government, but didn’t rise any further.
After narrowly surviving a preselection challenge in 2004, Cadman faced a challenge in 2007 from prominent right-winger Alex Hawke, and decided to retire. Hawke easily won election in 2007, and has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Mitchell is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alex Hawke | Liberal | 56,918 | 52.6 | -9.4 | 52.4 |
| Immanuel Selvaraj | Labor | 27,597 | 25.5 | +1.6 | 25.6 |
| Matt Cox | Greens | 12,796 | 11.8 | +3.8 | 12.0 |
| Linda Daniel | United Australia | 3,916 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 3.5 |
| Clinton Mead | Liberal Democrats | 3,708 | 3.4 | +3.4 | 3.3 |
| Donald McKenzie | One Nation | 3,258 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 4,811 | 4.3 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alex Hawke | Liberal | 65,662 | 60.7 | -7.9 | 60.5 |
| Immanuel Selvaraj | Labor | 42,531 | 39.3 | +7.9 | 39.5 |
Polling places in Mitchell have been split into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.1% in the south to 62.7% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the north to 13.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 13.3 | 56.1 | 24,702 | 23.7 |
| North | 12.1 | 62.7 | 18,263 | 17.5 |
| Central | 12.9 | 58.8 | 13,347 | 12.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 61.9 | 30,287 | 29.1 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 63.2 | 17,548 | 16.8 |
Election results in Mitchell at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
@Nimalan,it is likely most of the participants are actually quite well off (a lot are small-medium business owners or tradies, etc) rather the “Struggling Aussies” that is often claimed by the proponents of the March which you said previously in the past that it is the typical Demographics of One Nation Voters in addition to anti-vax protest participants (which I think almost certainly that most March of Australia participants were the same people who attended the anti-vax rallies).
@ Marh
Agree it is not really that the demographic that lives in Spence which is an example of Poor Whites who are struggling. It is really tradies etc asset owners that vote for One Nation which is why i dont think Labor is concerned. Interesting, how Southern/Eastern Europeans have become Nationalist. Drew Pavlou nowadays rants about immigrants not assimilating or being grateful to Australia.
@Nimalan, I saw videos from proponents of the march claiming a few CALD participants meant the event isn’t racist except “few CALD participants” does not even represent overwhelmingly of the CALD community rather they tend to be “ very anglicised Southern/Eastern Europeans” or “white-nationalised non-white CALD” both being fans of far-right influencers. Regarding the assimilation process speaking from a second generation Asian Australian myself, “assimilation” is no easy process as most immigrants (even among second generation) don’t have the luxury due to different social cues (including introversion) which affects acceptance and the prioritising to have upward mobility, it is not because immigrants want to overthrow Australia. These nationalist talking points used about CALD assimilation might actually backfire and does the complete opposite in making CALD less assimilated.
@ Marh
I agree with you. I am Gen 1.75 South Asian Australian myself having come to Australia when i was 18 months old, even since i went to Kindergarten i knew i was different. Sometimes when i see the odd token person of colour attending March for Australia i just think they are suicidally stupid. Rukshan Fernando who is the best example of this and supported anti-lockdown protests etc even though i have a simmilar cultural background i see him as an Uncle Tom and i am sure if he ran as the Liberal candiate in Narre Warren North most of the Sri Lankan community would prefer Belinda Wilson over him.
Agree Nimalan and Marh, many migrants coming into Australia from non-Christian type backgrounds are more concerned about their financial wellbeing and wanting a better life compared to what they had/experienced in their homeland. They are not really interested in spreading a ‘cultural’ revolution which the far right try to argue in their talking points and their continued practice of their past cultural norms (language, religion and other beliefs) is because that is what they are familiar with.
I do believe young people are more comfortable with the assimilation process as they will be exposed to both English language and local cultural norms more frequently at either school or university compared to older adults.
Labor and Climate 200 must a bit miffed that didn’t put in more resources or endorse a strong candidate here. Probably missed their best chance ever to win here.
The Metro could attract a young renter demographic to parts of this seat and The Greens seem to be getting on the board in the Hills (and they have a local councillor)., so maybe next election will still be good for Labor even if there’s a correction
Mitchell was once semi-rural in the north. It historically was deeply Christian as part of the Bible Belt. It’s where Hillsong was founded and first became popular. Suburban sprawl has changed the demographics. There’s a lot of first home buyers and middle to high income white collar professionals.
I think Labor could’ve won either Mitchell or Berowra if they’d targeted and campaigned properly. A lot of the swing in 2025 was due to demographic changes.
They might have done the liberal party a favour by winning Mitchell
Ironically, Kos’s remarks about 85% of Indians are inaccurate according to Shaun Ratcliff, who estimates the Labor 2PP amongst South Asian voters is in the low 60s.
@Scart that makes a lot more sense given the NSW Liberals held a bunch of seats with large Indian populations for 12 years. You can’t win those when 85% of a major ethnic group is voting for the other party.
Also, the BJP (India’s main right-wing party) governs India with a pretty big advantage over the INC (the opposition). Narendra Modi is from the BJP.
I personally doubt the 85% figure i think is overstated i think perhaps 66-33 TPP is more believable. I would expect their to be variations of South Asians by religion. For example for Muslim South Asians the Labor TPP will be much higher than for Hindus etc. There will also be a much higher Green votes among Muslims. I do stand by what i said in the La Trobe thread that i think Morrison was more liked than Dutton among South Asians.
Some demographic points about South Asians
1. Tend to be quite young low median age voter
2. Highly educated perhaps the best educated Pan-Ethnic group
3. Tend to live in Outer Suburban mortgage belt growth areas
4. Socially Conservative when it comes to family values. Religion is very important to South Asian identity.
5. Higher education levels means more progresisve when it comes to issues such as Climate Change, the Voice etc
6. Despite high incomes low median wealth due to the community being young and little intergenerational wealth.
I think NSW Liberals are not palatable compared to Federal or Victorian Liberals to South Asians.
@Dan M: “If Labor properly targeted here, they very likely could have won”. Unlikely Labor could win Mitchell in 2025 even if they targetted here given the more than 10% margin. In the 2025 federal election, no seat with a recontesting Coalition MP has recorded a 2PP swing to Labor of 10% or more. The largest 2PP swing to Labor in a seat with a recontesting Coalition MP that Labor had achieved was in Bonner of 8.41%, and Labor targeted Bonner.
@NP regarding BJP and Indian Right-wingers, they mostly focus around Hindu Nationalism and tend to therefore be largely apathetic on Western Politics given India is a neutral country (good relations with both US and Russia at the same time while taking a tough stand against China and Pakistan) rather than about Left-Right economic divide (aka Socialism vs Capitalism culture wars) that is prevalent in Latin American politics.
https://x.com/ShaunRatcliff/status/1964227189328449623
Collective margins are as follows:
White: Left 44, Right 40
Indigenous: Left 67, Right 30
East/SE Asian: Left 60, Right 27
South Asian: Left 60, Right 35
Other: Left 54, Right 27
Overall: Left 47, Right 38
Kos data is useful, and I like his content, however I’ve always seen Kos as one of party insiders pushing a story that doesn’t always match what is happening on the ground. This stands out when Kos analyze areas he isn’t familiar with. I find it hard to believe anyone really thought Indians voted 85% labor.
I really wish Shaun ratcliffe looked at Religion
I think Muslims will be highest group for Left even higher than Indigenious. Jews will be more Liberal leaning than the general population especially after October 7th.
Pentecostals will be the most right wing religious group. In the US non religious are likely Democrat but i dont think that is the case. Eventhough Kamala Harris lost the popular vote she won 70% of people without a religion while in Australia a larger % of people have no religion including White Working Class voters.
@Pencil Among other things, he claimed that VIC Labor’s current modest lead marked a “seismic shift” yet didn’t say the same when the VIC Liberals had leads much bigger than that early in the year.
Scart, Kos can sometimes be confusing, in the last federal election, his research had Casey 50:50 and McEwen going Liberal, which would have meant, the more conservative seat Casey was swinging to Labor, and the Labor leaning seat McEwen was swinging towards the Liberals, which just looked weird.
@ Pencil
There was also MRP that said Bruce was too close to call but Casey was a Labor pick up. I really quried the Redbridge Poll for Bruce see link below as i think that seat having a lot of people who dont speak English would have been hard to poll at the microlevel especially Afghan refugees in Bruce. Casey on the other hand is almost exclusively English speaking but even that poll was wrong.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/bruce2022
I don’t believe the quoted 85% 2PP Labor amongst Indian diaspora. Estimates of support often ignores context and isn’t stratisfied for differences in demographics e.g. education, age, region.
Labor’s 2PP was 55%. However, this includes the counts from regional and rural electorates. In metropolitan areas, the 2PP was 61%. The vast majority of Indian diaspora live in the five major capital cities.
Above, Nimalan pointed out that South Asians, tend to be younger and more educated than average. They are also quite likely a renter or paying off a mortgage. Typically, younger voters and uni-educated voters in major cities preferred Labor over Liberal. A fairer comparison would be millennial migrants of Indian descent in Sydney vs the average millenial in Sydney.
I do believe most Indians supported Labor over LNP but this was the case for most big city dwellers.
@Marh true, he does focus a lot on Hindu nationalism.
@Scart I still don’t think it adds up. Not one ethnic group votes mostly Coalition? Also what is “White”? Are Mediterranean people (i.e Croats, Greeks, Italians, Lebanese, Macedonians, Maltese, etc) considered “White”?
@Nimalan yeah there’s no way it’s anything close to what it is in the US when it comes to non-religious people when they make up most of the population. Only 43.9% of Australians identified as Christian in the 2021 census and that includes people who aren’t religious but raised Christian so they ticked it anyway. No religion is 38.9% but again it only includes people who marked that as their religion so it’s probably a fair bit higher.
the reason why india stays neutral against Russia is becuase they source alot of weapons and military stuff from Russia as well as oil and they dont want to bite that hand
@ Nether Portal
I think Muslim Lebanese especially will not consider themselves White and part of Western Civilisation. Christian Lebanese often will intermarry with Europeans and often assimilate more as they eat pork, drink alcohol, celebrate Christmas etc.
@ John
I agree that Russia and India share a lot of ties. The other thing is that i dont think India feels it is their problem to solve. Both Russia-Ukraine are Christian Orthodox countries so they dont have a cultural affinity. They want peace so there is global stability. While Australia and India are both members of the Quad, India is more independent. The US often supported Pakistan during the Cold War while Russia supported India so India is more wary of the West.
@NP Bear in mind that Labor had the biggest landslide since Malcolm Fraser, and white/Caucasian voters probably last voted majority Labor in 2007.
I would imagine Jews are probably the only ethnic cohort that voted majority Liberal at the last election, but they make up a very small portion of the population.
after labors betrayal of australian jews they wont be voting labor for a while
@ Scart
I think Southern/Eastern Europeans probably voted more Liberal in TPP than in 2007 especially among younger generations who more intergrated/mobile than in 2007. I think in 2010/2022 Labor probably did not win majority of White/Caucasion vote. I do agree Jews probably had the strongest Liberal vote of any cultural group.
In the US, no Democrat has won the majority of White/Caucasion vote since 1964 with LBJ even Obama in 2008 did not.
Not even Bill Clinton (who did much better with White Southerners than Obama)?
@ Scart
Bill Clinton won less of the White vote than his Republican opponents see link below. Bill Clinton did much better with White Southerns than Obama. However, i think apart from his home state of Arkanas, West Virginia, Kentucky and maybe Tennesse he did not win majority of White Southernen white in any state but enough of it which meant he could win Lousiniania, Georgia (narrowly in 1992). Those two states would have depended on a thumping result among Black Americans along with a decent minority of the White vote.
https://decolonialatlas.wordpress.com/2020/11/06/white-voters-1964-2020/
BREAKING: Price has stood down.
https://x.com/JNampijinpa/status/1965689484558958989
@Nimalan 100% correct about Lebanese. Lebanese Christians in Australia (like myself background-wise, but I’m not religious) associate a lot more with Southern Europeans like Greeks, Italians, Maltese, ex-Yugoslavs, etc than with Arab Muslims, many even openly support Israel. I’d say memories of the war with Syria play a big part in this.
@Scart should probably put this on the NT Senate thread.
Either way, I think Jacinta Price was right to step down. You have to back the leader during a rebuild. She’s made herself more unlikeable since the MAGA cap incident.
I would say she’s the Australian version of David Seymour and Winston Peters in New Zealand, both of whom are of Māori descent. David Seymour and his party (ACT New Zealand) supported the Treaty Principles Bill.
If someone like Stephen Chavura became full on influential within the Australian Conservative Movement which then gets crept into the Right Faction of the Coalition , I wonder if could fracture the Coalition regarding accepting multiculturalism given Chavura espouses White Anglo Supremacy Views (he even said in a post that abolishing White Australia Policy was a mistake) yet he gets interview seats with John Anderson.
@ Marh
I see a lot of Anti-multculturalists getting airtme within John Anderson. Others include Douglas Murray, Melanie Philipps. I think Labor would love a culture war on Multiculturalism because it makes it harder for them to win Red Wall seats where there is more ethnic diversity than the Teal seats.
There has been some dispute online as to who initiated Price’s leaving the shadow ministry. Did she resign voluntarily, or did Ley ask her to step down? Also, some on the right are pushing a narrative that there is no such thing as an “Indian-Australian” but rather “Indians in Australia.” Some have also speculated that there needs to be a new political party on the right to replace the Liberals, in line with speculation that Reform UK may overtake the Tories in Britain.
@Craig if they live in Australia they’re “Indian Australians” or “Australians of Indian descent”. An “Indian in Australia” would be considered a tourist.