LIB 10.5%
Incumbent MP
Alex Hawke, since 2007.
Geography
North-Western Sydney. Mitchell mainly covers parts of the Hills as well as northern parts of the City of Parramatta, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Rouse Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville.
Redistribution
Mitchell shifted south, picking up West Pennant Hills from Berowra and losing Box Hill, Gables, Nelson and Rouse Hill to Greenway. These changes slightly cut the Liberal margin from 10.7% to 10.5%.
Mitchell was created for the 1949 election. It has almost always been won by the Liberal Party, except for two elections where the ALP won the seat, and it has become a solidly Liberal seat over recent decades.
Mitchell was won by Liberal candidate Roy Wheeler in 1949. Wheeler was re-elected at every election in the 1950s, but lost Mitchell to ALP candidate John Armitage. Armitage only managed to hold on to the seat for one term, losing it to Liberal candidate Leslie Irwin in 1963, although he later held the safe Labor seat of Chifley from 1969 to 1983.
Irwin held Mitchell from 1963 until the 1972 election, when he was swept aside with the election of the Whitlam government, with Mitchell being won by Labor candidate Alfred Ashley-Brown. Ashley-Brown lost in 1974 to Liberal candidate Alan Cadman.
Cadman held Mitchell for over thirty years without rising to much prominence in the Liberal Party, and by the mid-2000s was one of only three MPs remaining from the time of the Whitlam government, along with Prime Minister John Howard and Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. Cadman served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final years of the Fraser government and the early years of the Howard government, but didn’t rise any further.
After narrowly surviving a preselection challenge in 2004, Cadman faced a challenge in 2007 from prominent right-winger Alex Hawke, and decided to retire. Hawke easily won election in 2007, and has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Mitchell is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alex Hawke | Liberal | 56,918 | 52.6 | -9.4 | 52.4 |
| Immanuel Selvaraj | Labor | 27,597 | 25.5 | +1.6 | 25.6 |
| Matt Cox | Greens | 12,796 | 11.8 | +3.8 | 12.0 |
| Linda Daniel | United Australia | 3,916 | 3.6 | +0.9 | 3.5 |
| Clinton Mead | Liberal Democrats | 3,708 | 3.4 | +3.4 | 3.3 |
| Donald McKenzie | One Nation | 3,258 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 4,811 | 4.3 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Alex Hawke | Liberal | 65,662 | 60.7 | -7.9 | 60.5 |
| Immanuel Selvaraj | Labor | 42,531 | 39.3 | +7.9 | 39.5 |
Polling places in Mitchell have been split into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.1% in the south to 62.7% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the north to 13.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 13.3 | 56.1 | 24,702 | 23.7 |
| North | 12.1 | 62.7 | 18,263 | 17.5 |
| Central | 12.9 | 58.8 | 13,347 | 12.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.8 | 61.9 | 30,287 | 29.1 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 63.2 | 17,548 | 16.8 |
Election results in Mitchell at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Hi Ben,
For some reason when you click on Nicholls it directs you to Mitchell thread for some reason.
@spacefish
Has Alex Hawke changed seats?
It was a bug on the map, should be fixed now.
I don’t understand this seat at all. It is surrounded by Labor territory on the west and to some extent the south. It has the safe somewhat-regional Liberal seat of Berowra to the east, but somehow here is safer than Berowra despite being more suburban and more Labor surrounded. What goes on here that I’m not aware of?
@Nick G a few points:
1. The Labor territory around it on the state level is all key marginal seats that were Liberal-held from 2011 until 2023. Federally these areas fall into Greenway and Parramatta.
2. Berowra is by no means regional. It is a Sydney seat. It includes places like Hornsby and Cherrybrook.
And to explain the area: this is one of the most ethnic Liberal seats in Australia. Lots of Chinese and Indian people live here. Furthermore, though, it is an upper-middle class seat and one of the richest seats in Sydney. Places like Castle Hill are old money while places like Kellyville and Bella Vista have growing housing estates. Lots of businesses are in Castle Hill. Mitchell and the Hills in general also has some semi-rural areas bordering the Hawkesbury which are very Liberal-voting.
Hope this helps.
Even after a 10% swing.this seat has a 10% liberal. Margin. The hills is not the preserve of Labor.
Hawke’s danger is being rolled in a preselection by his own side
@Nether Portal ok, that makes slightly more sense, thanks
Nick G, to add to what Nether Portal wrote, this also has a reputation as being a very religious area. For example, it’s where the Hillsong Church is headquartered.
This seat had NSW’s largest election-day booth at Jasper Road Primary School in Baulkham Hills, with 3110 votes cast, which is the largest in the country.
North-West Sydney has been known as the “bible belt”. Hillsong is in Norwest.
Interestingly, there are LGAs that have far higher percentages of people who are Christians. The most Christian LGAs are peri-urban ones e.g. Camden, Wollondilly, Penrith. Bossley Park in Fowler and in Fairfield LGA is the Sydney suburb with the highest percentage of people who are Christian.
Any Liberal insiders have insight into how preselection went here? I would have thought many Liberals would have been keen on deposing Hawke after all the shenanigans in 2022.
Dear Leader Supreme Life Emperor of the Principality of Mitchell Hawke romped in his preselection victory. Alex can not be stacked out!
A bit of a limb here but I’m getting the vibes Hawke will increase his margin despite all his controversies. Labor is putting no effort in here, candidate has no bio on the ABC page, not a surprise due to the demographics here but nonetheless Alex Hawke will hold.
Guessing the only way to get rid of Alex is some hard core branch stacking or a conservative community independent
I predict the margin to decline but a comfortable retain for Hawke. The demographics are getting more Labor friendly.
@ Adda
This very is very CALD and is racially tolerant. While it is socially conservative on religious based issues i dont see Dutton to be generally well liked here. However, it is mortgage belt so COL and interest rates may hurt Labor so maybe there will be a small swing here to Libs but i am not sure.
There’s new developments thanks to the metro line here and generally a younger (and Indian) crowd moving in to those. But I would not call it mortgage belt – the only new suburb is North Kellyville, and most of the growth regions in the north-west are just outside of this seat now in Greenway. It’s mostly established middle to outer ring suburbs which in general have been growing more friendly for Labor.
I would also say that even in the growth areas in the north-west of Sydney, interest rates are probably less of an issue likely to backlash against Labor compared to the south-west, as they are higher income and education demographics that are more likely to be taking up residence. So although it is not a strong point for Labor, it is compensated by those voters being both younger and more highly educated than the mean in the electorate, and thus being more of a Labor voting demographic naturally.
I am honestly stunned by the result of the swing here. Booths in blue-ribbon Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills have flipped to Labor, and the rest of the electorate absolutely collapsed in support, Labor has done impressive despite a late candidate selection, albeit that Alex Hawke was invisible in the campaign.
@ James,
maybe look at my comment just up from Adda and you will have the answer. This seat is a bit like a mix of Menzies and Aston. The difference is that on current boundaries Menzies and Aston have Labor friendly areas which is why Labor was able to win. I live in Menzies and a part of the seat that is demographically simmilar to this seat. If i lived in Sydney i probably would have grown up in Cherybrook/Castle Hill. i think i warned that Dutton will not play well especially among ethnic minorities. Kos Samaras said that his feedback was Dutton was hated by CALD voters. His comments on African Gangs, White Farmers in South Africa, preparing for War with China etc Nether Portal asked us what if the was an Australian Donald Trump, i said such a candiate would undeperform in Mitchell and Berowa and make them marginal. see below
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/dickson2025/comment-page-2#comment-824074
@James most of the Castle Hill booths stuck with the Liberals, as did all the Kellyville ones, but still a shocking swing.
@Nimalan I think this election pretty much exactly answers my question about how an Australian Donald Trump would do in an election. Even in COL-affected seats there has been a swing to Labor. In fact even in rural seats there are some marginal booths now.
As I said I will absolutely analyse heaps of different seats and calculate some results for state electorates, noting that the state electorates won’t have the same swing and in many states will swing to the Coalition.
Greens campaigned very hard here. Looks like it worked to get a swing against Liberals but most of it went to Labor. Both majors did very little campaigning.
I see that Alex has finally managed to bring down the Liberal party primary vote below 50%
What role will Alex play in the new incarnation of the Liberal Party that he spent so many years creating
I commented in the Greenway thread that there were swings to Labor of over 20% (!!!) in Rouse Hill – makes you wonder if Labor could’ve won Mitchell had they put in the same effort.
Nicholas, it also shows how much of Alex Hawke’s vote is personal. And that voters there wouldn’t just vote for any random Liberal member (especially Rattan Virk with so much controversy).
If Mitchell doesn’t flip while Alex is there, it likely will when he leaves or gets replaced.
@ Nicholas
You and i had an interesting conversation in the Aftermath of the Aston by-election on the Castle Hill thread and the implication on the Hills District please read that again and let me know what you think in hindsight 🙂
see our conversation below from 2023
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/nsw2023/castlehill2023/comment-page-2#comment-842041
@James: “I am honestly stunned by the result of the swing here. Booths in blue-ribbon Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills have flipped to Labor, and the rest of the electorate absolutely collapsed in support”. Agreed. I am also very surprised to see that multiple booths in blue-ribbon Castle Hill and Baulkham Hills have flipped to Labor while all booths in these suburbs were won by the Liberal Party in 2022. There were also double digit primary and 2PP swings against the Liberal Party in four baulkham Hills booths and three Castle Hill booths. All Kellyville booths stuck with the Liberal Party, although all with large swings against. This election was also the first time since 1974 that the Liberal primary vote dropped below 50% in Mitchell, and the first time since 1975 that the Liberal 2PP dropped below 60% in Mitchell.
I have never imagined that Mitchell will become a Liberal vs Labor marginal seat. I think due to fast population growth and increasing diversity in the Hills Shire, Mitchell is realigning towards Labor. Mitchell also has a large migrant population. As of the 2021 Census, 43.4% of Mitchell residents were born overseas, 14.7% of residents have Chinese ancestry and 9.4% of residents have Indian ancestry. CALD populations, especially Chinese and Indian Australians, strongly detest Dutton’s Coalition, which was partly responsible for the large swings against the Liberal Party we have seen in Mitchell.
@Ben: I have seen no evidence that Alex Hawke has any significant personal vote. In 2022, Mitchell’s Coalition Senate vote was only lower 3.61% lower than the Liberal House vote. In fact, I thought Hawke may be unpopular even among Liberal Party members because of his role in denying and delaying proper preselections for the Liberal Party in NSW ahead of the 2022 federal election. This could also be responsible for some of the large swings against the Liberal Party in Mitchell in both the 2022 and 2025 federal elections. By 2028, Hawke would have been the Member for Mitchell for 21 years. It’s entirely possible that he could retire or lose preselection at the next federal election. However, even if that happens, I doubt that Labor will put any serious effort into winning this seat, since there is almost certainly going to be a rebound in Coalition support. Labor will likely concentrate its resources into defending its 2025 gains and its marginal seats that swung against Labor in 2025 than trying to win socially conservative blue-ribbon seats like Mitchell.
Correction: This election was also the first time since 1972 that the Liberal primary vote dropped below 50% in Mitchell, and the first time since 1974 that the Liberal 2PP dropped below 60% in Mitchell. The last time the Liberal primary vote was below 50% in Mitchell was in 1972, and the last time the the Liberal 2PP was below 60% in Mitchell was in 1974.
I would say Hawke should lose preselection or retire for 2028. He damaged the Liberals in 2022 with late preselections and has taken the electorate for granted. He was invisible in the campaign, even in 2022 when he was on a nearly 20% margin he was campaigning here a bit and in other seats, yet in the recent term he’s been a ghost, and I see why his margin has dropped.
The Liberals will need a smart candidate selection when Hawke goes, preferably someone with good community links and CALD. Michelle Byrne who is the Mayor of Hills Shire actually had a swing towards her in 2024 when she became the mayoral candidate again. I remember someone here saying she was well-liked in comparison to Peter Gangemi who defeated her for preselection in 2020 for the mayoralty, he wasn’t seen as an inspiring figure.
@James and @Joseph – There is one key thing that you are missing in Mitchell and that is the constant factional games occurring. Mitchell has been the scene for wide-spread internal sniping between the HR and CR of the Liberal Party. Hawke has been central to that story line and the community there are starting to get sick of it.
They see a lot of issues in the party resting solely at the feet of Hawke, given his role with Morrison and then trying to realign with Dutton’s Big Government Conservatism. Now, no-one knows what Hawke stands for, apart from feathering his own nest.
Wow almost 54/46 maybe Alex has over stayed his welcome
The result for the Liberals was not great here. Also, Hawke has been in Parliament nearly 20 years and in my opinion there’s not much evidence he’s left much of a mark in terms of contributing to the public debate in a meaningful way. Ideally one would think the Liberal party would want someone who is future ministerial/leader material here who makes frequent contributions to the public debate, but in my opinion you don’t see that with Hawke. This leads me to the conclusion that the Liberal party could do better by preselecting someone else next time around.
@GPPS Hawke’s a pretty spiteful and nasty person from all accounts so him losing pre-selection or losing Mitchell wouldn’t be a huge loss either.
I think Hawke has contributed quite a lot to politics – basically destroying the liberal party as a broad church and helping the teal candidates into office
Perhaps he is trying to beat Alan Cadman’s record for this seat for longevity without much contribution
I believe safe seats (like Mitchell was previously) should be reserved for people with long-term ministerial ambitions. Alex Hawke was a backbencher the whole time last term. Surprised that he’s been around since 2007.
6.7% 2PP swing – one of the biggest for a non-target seat.
Ultimately, shouldn’t every member have long term ministerial ambitions? (That is, if they are member of Labor or the Grouping Formerly Known As The Coalition?)
The outcome that some members have a bit of zing and others are happy to become placeholders should be a function of the voters, not the parties.
@ Real Talk
i think Marginal Seat MPs need to be more local champions and they dont need to have long term ministeral ambitions just like many employees in the corporate sector/Public Serbice may not neccesarily want to move to people leadership roles and happy to be good individual contributor. In a seat like Werriwa, i think you need more ambitious and talented MPs than Anne Stanley.
The federal Liberal TPP here in 2025 was 53.8%, a swing of –6.7% away from the Liberals.
Here’s the Liberal TPP broken down by state seat, with the swing from the 2023 state election in brackets:
* Castle Hill: 53.9% (–7.0%)
* Kellyville: 55.3% (–5.7%)
* Winston Hills: 39.4% (–12.4%)
The 2PP swings away from the Liberals over two elections is insane given that it wasn’t a target seat. 7.9% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2025 – both were over double the nationwide swings. The 2PP margin was 22.1% following the 2013 federal election – the highest of any Liberal seat.
A total swing of 14.6% to Labor over two elections is a sure sign of suburban sprawl and demographic changes.