|Term expires 2014||Term expires 2017|
|Catryna Bilyk (ALP)||Eric Abetz (LIB)|
|Carol Brown (ALP)||Christine Milne (GRN)|
|David Bushby (LIB)||Stephen Parry (LIB)|
|Richard Colbeck (LIB)||Helen Polley (ALP)|
|Lin Thorp (ALP)1||Lisa Singh (ALP)|
|Peter Whish-Wilson (GRN) 2||Anne Urquhart (ALP)|
1Lin Thorp replaced Nick Sherry on 20 June 2012 after Senator Sherry’s resignation.
2Peter Whish-Wilson replaced Bob Brown on 20 June 2012 after Senator Brown’s resignation.
Tasmania elected five senators for each major party at the 1951 double dissolution. In 1953, the Liberals gained a sixth seat from the ALP. The Liberals were reduced to five seats in 1955, when one of the ALP’s senators left the party to join the party that became the Democratic Labor Party. In 1961, the Liberals lost their fifth seat to independent Reginald Turnbull, and until 1964 Tasmania was represented by four Labor senators, four Liberal senators, one DLP senator and Turnbull.
The 1964 election saw the ALP regain the seat previously held by the DLP. This 5-4-1 split remained until the 1970 Senate election, when the ALP lost their fifth seat to conservative independent Michael Townley, producing a result of four Labor, four Liberal and two independents. Turnbull retired at the 1974 double dissolution, and the ALP won back a fifth senate seat. Prior to the 1975 election Townley joined the Liberal Party, and in 1975 the Liberals won five seats, the ALP won four (down one from 1974) , and the final seat was won by ex-Labor independent Brian Harradine.
Tasmania continued to be represented by five Liberals, four Labor and Harradine from 1975 until the 1984 election, when Labor won a fifth seat and the Australian Democrats won a seat. This 5-5-1-1 balance remained steady until the 1996 election, when the Democrats lost their single senate seat, and Greens candidate Dr Bob Brown was elected to that seat. This balance remained steady until 2004, although prior to the 2001 election Labor Senator Shayne Murphy resigned from the ALP to serve as an independent.
At the 2004 election, Harradine retired, and his seat was won by the Liberal Party, whilst the ALP lost one of its seats to Greens candidate Christine Milne. At the 2007 election, the ALP won a fifth seat back off the Liberal Party. In 2010, the ALP again won three out of six seats. Overall, the ALP currently holds six seats, the Liberal Party four and the Greens two.
|Shooters and Fishers||6,649||2.01||+2.01||0.1407|
Labor and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes, and the Greens won one seat.
- Lisa Singh (ALP) – 0.9102 quotas
- Peter Whish-Wilson (GRN) – 0.4545
- Guy Barnett (LIB) – 0.3541
- Ray Williams (SHO) – 0.1523
- Jim Zubic (FF) – 0.1240
Family First’s preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers.
- Singh (ALP) – 0.9142
- Whish-Wilson (GRN) – 0.4597
- Barnett (LIB) – 0.3652
- Williams (SHO) – 0.2559
Shooters preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Party.
- Singh (ALP) – 0.9305
- Barnett (LIB) – 0.5753
- Whish-Wilson (GRN) – 0.4881
Greens preferences flowed to Labor, but only a small proportion of Greens preferences were needed to push Labor over a quota.
- Singh (ALP) – 1.0260
- Barnett (LIB) – 0.5941
- Whish-Wilson (GRN) – 0.3729
The ALP is running:
The Liberal Party is running:
No information on major party candidates. The Greens are running sitting Senator Peter Whish-Wilson. The Pirate Party are running Thomas Randle. Patricia Petersen’s Australian Independents party are running Neville Solomon. Family First are running Peter Madden. The Stable Population Party is running Todd Dudley. The Democratic Labor Party is running Robyne Ferri. Katter’s Australian Party is running Geoff Herbert.
The first two Labor and Liberal seats, along with the Greens seat, are all reasonably safe. The race will come down to the final seat, currently held by Labor.
At the final preference distribution the combined Labor/Greens vote in 2010 was just under 4.4 quotas. Assuming that Greens preferences flow to Labor ahead of the Liberal Party, Labor will maintain their three seats if the combined Labor/Greens vote stays above four quotas. They’ll achieve this if the collective swing to the right is kept below 5.7%.
While it is conceivable that the Liberal Party could gain such a swing at this election, it’s possible that they could fall short.