Booth map of the day – Bean and Fremantle

Next up on booth map of the day, I’m looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia.

For each map I’ve shown the Labor vs Independent 2CP map (but no 2CP swing map), primary vote maps for the independent, Labor and Liberal, and primary vote swing maps for Labor and Liberal.

First, to Bean, where Jessie Price currently trails Labor’s David Smith by 599 votes, achieving 49.7% of the 2CP vote after a primary vote of 26.4%.

The 2CP map isn’t particularly convincing one way or the other. The election-day booths leaned towards Jessie Price, but no booth leaned much one way or the other. Labor tended to win booths at the northern and southern end of the seat, but (apart from Tharwa) no booth got above 55% either way.

There was a more interesting pattern looking at the Labor and Price primary vote maps. It seems like Labor had a higher vote along the eastern spine, while Price’s primary was higher in the west.

Labor lost primary votes almost everywhere, unsurprisingly, although some booths at the southern end around Tuggeranong did show small swings to Labor.

As for Fremantle, there’s a much clearer pattern on the 2CP map, with Hulett winning booths in the north-west, and Labor in the south-east. The centre of the seat is a mixed picture.

The same north-west/south-east pattern can be detected in the Labor and Price primary vote figures, and Labor suffered the biggest primary vote swings in Beaconsfield – these suburbs are in the north-west of the seat, but not right in the upper north-west around Fremantle itself.

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