Next up on booth map of the day, I’m looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia.
For each map I’ve shown the Labor vs Independent 2CP map (but no 2CP swing map), primary vote maps for the independent, Labor and Liberal, and primary vote swing maps for Labor and Liberal.
First, to Bean, where Jessie Price currently trails Labor’s David Smith by 599 votes, achieving 49.7% of the 2CP vote after a primary vote of 26.4%.
The 2CP map isn’t particularly convincing one way or the other. The election-day booths leaned towards Jessie Price, but no booth leaned much one way or the other. Labor tended to win booths at the northern and southern end of the seat, but (apart from Tharwa) no booth got above 55% either way.
There was a more interesting pattern looking at the Labor and Price primary vote maps. It seems like Labor had a higher vote along the eastern spine, while Price’s primary was higher in the west.
Labor lost primary votes almost everywhere, unsurprisingly, although some booths at the southern end around Tuggeranong did show small swings to Labor.
As for Fremantle, there’s a much clearer pattern on the 2CP map, with Hulett winning booths in the north-west, and Labor in the south-east. The centre of the seat is a mixed picture.
The same north-west/south-east pattern can be detected in the Labor and Price primary vote figures, and Labor suffered the biggest primary vote swings in Beaconsfield – these suburbs are in the north-west of the seat, but not right in the upper north-west around Fremantle itself.
@Ben, great maps, by the way. I was hoping I could zoom right out and see the Norfolk Island PPVC and Election Day numbers, but alas! they are not visible.
On another note, while it’s not Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, could a Norfolk Island psephologist (or journalist or hotelier) start up a “First in the Nation” tradition from the Burnt Pine polling place ( https://maps.app.goo.gl/Rn3NXN7eoscau5bF9 ) or the lobby of a nearby hotel from 6pm NI-time (1 hour ahead of the East Coast) for the 2028 election?
Both Hulett and Price would be wise to run again in 2028. Price would probbly benefit from the upcoming redistribution
At the same time, a second go at a seat invites more scrutiny so it’s not all one way traffic for independents. Caz Heise and Alex Dyson saw little change (slightly backwards for Heise). Ryan and Daniel ended up going backwards despite being incumbents.
they could be a good chance depending on what happens in the next 3 years
If the libs/Nats don’t sort themselves out then community independents in safe labor seats could offer a good alternative to voters that might want to keep Labor in check
Because the coalition weren’t the incumbent government. Bean is gonn get trimmed and the only place to do that is I the north. Il have a look at the numbers but an ideal place would be along the molongia River and along Hindmarsh drive would be ideal. Also
Labor lost the on-the-day 2CP in both seats but won the 2CP on prepoll and postal votes.
I think that the pre-election hype of a hung parliament and underestimating of Labor held back the teals. For most of the past year, there was a narrative and made-up prospect of Dutton pushing Albanese into minority or even becoming PM himself. A lot of Greens voters would’ve tactically voted. Bandt said himself that many Greens voters switched to Labor to stop Dutton. If polling had consistently showed or the media had talked about a 54%+ 2PP result or Labor winning 85+ seats, would left-leaning voters have felt more comfortable voting teal?
Dutton wasn’t popular in the relatively-affluent, inner-city or middle-ring electorates. This might’ve caused Liberal voters, especially moderate Liberals, to swing to the teal candidate. In Bean, this was aided by Liberals announcing to axe 41,000 APS jobs and WFH. Ironically, such policies had the potential to knock off a sitting Labor MP.
There’s also the people who switched from liberal to labor after the liberals screwed themselves votes that could of gone to the teals on preferences
@Darth Vadar – seems that is the case. In a lot of seats the swing in primary seems to have gone from Liberal to Labor while the minor parties stayed static
In Bean, the Labor primary vote dropped a little bit. However this result hides the number of people who swung from Liberal to Labor directly.
Assuming the libs can recover we should see a correction back to the libs similar to 2016. When Labor recovered from its drubbing in 2028. This would obviously benefit the teals in Fremantle and Bean.
The swing against Labor was milder in central Freo because their vote was already low – the Greens typically have their best results there (they lost a fair bit of vote to Hulett, too). The booths a bit further out around Beaconsfield, Hamilton Hill and Coolbellup would typically be Labor/Green contests where Labor wins, but Hulett won them this time.
Any chance of getting the booth percentages and swings for the Greens in Fremantle?
Done.
@Ben Raue, can Norfolk Island be included please?
It’s just one booth.
the pm has revealed that parliament will return on july 22. which means qld and tasmania wont be beginning their redistribution until at least that date. however the act is scheduled to start on the 13th of july and sa on he 20th of july id say they will probably due these asap so that way there is a gap between the 4 redistributions allowing time for submissions on all of them
Why the strong vote for Jessie Price on Norfolk Island?
Bean – an accidental MP, the person who stands as number 2 ALP for the Senate, David Smith is not immediately a strong local MP. Many find him offputting – including within the party. Not a surprise he is at risk.
The Tuggeranong parts of Canberra have been the least locked into national politics and swung liberal from time to time (eg to replace Ros Kelly in 1990s). Seems to have settled down now into standard Canberra, hence he can see no great difference by booth.
An idea for you: who are the candidates that got 30% or more – first preference or perhaps who accummulate to that point on preferences? Many from Labor and Liberal and National but interest is the others – and why so few Greens do this. Or at least my impression is that it is independents whether Teall or more left leaning ones as in Bean and Fremantle, who are the serious third set.
@Adda. Ryan barely went backwards. She won every polling station in Hawthorn convincingly, and she won all the east Prahran booths. She also won all booths in Kew, most in Kew East. She might have gone backwards in Canterbury. As mentioned by many, including Antony Green, it was the addition of the economically, and socially conservative suburbs of Toorak, Malvern, and Armadale where the swing against her came. The fact that she did so well in Hawthorn nullified the Toorak, Malvern, and Armadale right wing swing.
@Monday’s she suffered a 1.9% swing. That’s about 3/4 of her margin. If the wheels didn’t fall off for the libs she probs would have lost the seat.