6:56pm – Two more counts have been conducted, distributing Family First and Citizens Party preferences. Legalise Cannabis are next. The full stats for the four lead candidates are at the bottom, but in short Carly Moore has picked up 1.8%, Labor has picked up 1.6%, Youhana 1.1% and Liberals 1.2%.
25.4% of the vote is sitting with the other four candidates:
- Greens – 9.1%
- Moslih – 7.6%
- One Nation – 5.0%
- Legalise Cannabis – 3.7%
Greens preferences flow to Moslih (who will already be out), then Youhana, then Labor, then Moore, so it is entirely possible that if many voters follow that how-to-vote it could still disrupt things. Moslih was endorsed by Muslim Votes Matter, who published a HTV ordering Greens, then Labor, then Youhana, then Moore, then Liberal. Moslih published his own how-to-vote card, but it had all the candidates polling more than him in the same order. So it is quite possible Moore could do poorly from voters following how to vote cards. But many will make up their own mind, and a popular independent may continue to attract more preferences.
Original post, 2:48pm Tuesday – The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.
There are 13 candidates running, so there will be eleven counts. So far the first three counts have been conducted, with independent candidates Peach and Ragupathy and Trumpet of Patriots candidates Issa already excluded with their votes distributed. Family First candidate Bengtsson is next in line.
You would expect each round of the count to take longer, as more and more votes need to be moved.
This table shows the share of the vote for the four leading candidates on the primary vote and each subsequent round:
Independent candidate Carly Moore is off to a strong start. She has already increased her primary vote by 0.8%, whereas fellow independent Joseph Youhana is only up 0.2%, Labor is up 0.5%, and the Liberal is up 0.4%.
The first question is whether Joseph Youhana can overtake Carly Moore and make the 3CP. Right now that looks pretty unlikely, as Moore is widening her lead over Youhana.
Moore right now looks quite plausible to overtake the Liberals, and if so I think she would probably be in a position to gain a strong flow of preferences and potentially beat Labor.
I’ll keep this post updated as we learn more.
what is the lowest primary vote that has gone on to win a seat under preferential voting?
I think that the lowest primary vote ever recorded for a winning candidate in an Australian federal election was 17%, achieved by Arthur Hewson of the National (then Country) Party in 1972. Hewson won the seat of McMillan from third place, relying on preferences from independent, Democratic Labour Party, and Liberal voters to ultimately defeat Labor with 52% of the final count.
More recently, in the 2022 federal election, independent Kylea Tink won the seat of North Sydney with just 25% of the primary vote, making it the lowest for a winning candidate that year.
Jeez, The AEC could have formatted that spreadsheet a bit better – what a shocker. I guess they never thought they’d be publishing it like this.
The format isn’t that bad really, it could be much worse. I’d agree a % change would be useful, but it’s fairly easy to deduce.
@bazza:
It’s working as intended. The bottom line is 50%+ don’t want Labor in Calwell at any price, imo.
Thanks Chops, yes that’s my understanding.
Penny, that’s a pretty standard for DOP, it has all the crucial info. But yeah I think they’re having to print an excel to PDF. It does the job.
Ben
Is there any word about whether AEC is doing the same for Bradfield?
GeoffL they will do this for all of the seats eventually, but this is the only one they’re publishing step-by-step because the DOP is so important here.
Notwithstanding the question of how many people will have received or followed them, I’d be reluctant to rule Youhana out just yet given he was above Moore on the HTVs of the Greens and the 6th placed Samim Moslih
@Gympie – not complaining about the process – just interested to know what is the current lowest primary vote that resulted in a winning candidate. If someone other than Labor wins this one then I would guess it would be one for the record books/trivia quiz
@bazza
The Federal FPTP system was changed after a WA candidate won with 18% in 1919, so I guess no one’s cracked that yet or there’d be calls for a new voting system?
Andrew Wilkie won Denison from 3rd with 21% in 2010, so he’s the recent leader.
Chops answered this question at 3:45. The Country Party won McMillan in 1972 with 16.6%.
… and that record-low looks like being broken if Labor’s Basem Abdo does not win, as Independents Moore and Youhana and the Liberals’ Ghani are (percentagewise) all under Arthur Hewson’s 1972 percentage.
A couple more rounds done, I see. Fourth exclusion was good for Moore, fifth was good for Labor and Youhana.
I think it’s looking increasingly likely that Moore will outlast Younaha to make the 3CP, it’s not completely impossible that Cannabis + Moslih prefs put the Greens above Younaha though that is highly unlikely.
Greens + Moslih leakage to Labor once they are both eliminated probably doesn’t leave enough juice left for Younaha to make up that 2% gap I’d imagine, especially since Moore has the donkey vote behind her.