Thursday 12:55pm – Preferences from the Muslim independent Moslih have been distributed, and the Greens have overtaken Youhana. Youhana will now be knocked out.
The new standings are:
- Abdo (ALP) 34.4% (+1.0%)
- Ghani (LIB) 18.9% (+0.4%)
- Moore (IND) 17.5% (+1.1%)
- Garcha (GRN) 15.3% (+5.1%)
- Youhana (IND) 13.9% (+0.7%)
Youhana’s how-to-vote recommends preferences to Moore, so it seems likely that she will overtake the Liberal and stay ahead of the Greens, but really we just have to keep watching.
Wednesday 5pm – The count has now been updated with all votes for the One Nation candidate distributed to the next choice. Carly Moore picked up 1.7%, Labor 0.6%, Liberal 1.4% and Youhana 1.1%.
The next exclusion will be Muslim independent Moslih, who is on 8.2%. The Greens are on 10.2%, and Youhana on 13.2%. It is possible his preferences could push the Greens ahead of Youhana, but I doubt they will flow that strongly.
Wednesday 1:28pm – The fifth elimination has now been concluded, with Legalise Cannabis preferences being distributed. Moore has picked up another 1% of the formal vote, up to 14.7%, Youhana has picked up 0.2%, Labor is up another 0.7%, and the Liberal is up 0.2%.
One Nation will be excluded next, with 5.6% to distribute.
6:56pm – Two more counts have been conducted, distributing Family First and Citizens Party preferences. Legalise Cannabis are next. The full stats for the four lead candidates are at the bottom, but in short Carly Moore has picked up 1.8%, Labor has picked up 1.6%, Youhana 1.1% and Liberals 1.2%.
25.4% of the vote is sitting with the other four candidates:
- Greens – 9.1%
- Moslih – 7.6%
- One Nation – 5.0%
- Legalise Cannabis – 3.7%
Greens preferences flow to Moslih (who will already be out), then Youhana, then Labor, then Moore, so it is entirely possible that if many voters follow that how-to-vote it could still disrupt things. Moslih was endorsed by Muslim Votes Matter, who published a HTV ordering Greens, then Labor, then Youhana, then Moore, then Liberal. Moslih published his own how-to-vote card, but it had all the candidates polling more than him in the same order. So it is quite possible Moore could do poorly from voters following how to vote cards. But many will make up their own mind, and a popular independent may continue to attract more preferences.
Original post, 2:48pm Tuesday – The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.
There are 13 candidates running, so there will be eleven counts. So far the first three counts have been conducted, with independent candidates Peach and Ragupathy and Trumpet of Patriots candidates Issa already excluded with their votes distributed. Family First candidate Bengtsson is next in line.
You would expect each round of the count to take longer, as more and more votes need to be moved.
This table shows the share of the vote for the four leading candidates on the primary vote and each subsequent round:
Independent candidate Carly Moore is off to a strong start. She has already increased her primary vote by 0.8%, whereas fellow independent Joseph Youhana is only up 0.2%, Labor is up 0.5%, and the Liberal is up 0.4%.
The first question is whether Joseph Youhana can overtake Carly Moore and make the 3CP. Right now that looks pretty unlikely, as Moore is widening her lead over Youhana.
Moore right now looks quite plausible to overtake the Liberals, and if so I think she would probably be in a position to gain a strong flow of preferences and potentially beat Labor.
I’ll keep this post updated as we learn more.
I wonder if the huge swings against Labor here and in other Muslim majority seats (Blaxland and Watson) are similar to what happened in the recent UK election where Labour lost a few seats to Muslim independents.
Moslih exclusion went 61% to the Greens which is going to knock out Youhana. Pretty convincing preference flow there.
Any ideas why Greens put Youhana above Labor but not Moore? They both seem to be just fairly uncontroversial community-focused independents, at least as far as my very limited research would suggest.
Moore made comments on the campaign trail downplaying Palestine and saying she didn’t think it was important, which is almost certainly what caused Moslih, MVM and the Greens to put Labor ahead of her. Those comments may well end up costing her this election, depending on what happens on the Greens exclusion
Ah ok, thanks.
Labor will now likely win off the back of greens and moslih prerferences the inds only hope was for youhana to make 2cp and get greens preferences
Such a mindless move for them to have put Labor ahead of Moore. It’s as if they’re not serious when they condemn Labor over the issue of Palestine.
@ Nicholas
Carly Moore is an Anglo candidate and maybe there was fear that she wil back Dutton in a hung parliament she is centrist and only concerned with bread and butter issues a bit like Dai Le. The Greens backed Labor over Dai Le. There is always a fear that Dai Le may back Libs in a hung parliament.
I think it is fair enough for someone who prioritises the issue of Palestine to prefer Labor’s stance to that of an independent whose stance would be unknown. I think this is also a good candidate selection by Labor in picking a Palestinian Muslim and thus giving a soft signal to voters.
Moore may be a former Labor mayor, Abdo was even her staffer at one point, but there seems to be a lot of bad blood between her and the ALP with her & Abdo preferencing each other very low.
im predicting a close race maybe between 50/50 -52/48. if you look at the counts
Abdo (ALP) 34.4% (+1.0%)
Ghani (LIB) 18.9% (+0.4%)
Moore (IND) 17.5% (+1.1%)
Garcha (GRN) 15.3% (+5.1%)
Youhana (IND) 13.9% (+0.7%)
ALP + GRN = 49.7%. Moore + Youhana + Liberals = 50.3%
if you take into account leakage Labor might spill over the line since they have 2 parties to get leakage from as opposed to Moore only having the Greens.