Thursday 8:55am – I should probably make one more post here with now that the AEC has finished their 2CP count. Labor’s Basem Abdo is on 55.08%, which is a comfortable victory after a lot of doubt.
Here is the final version of the chart I’ve been posting.
Tuesday 12:20pm – The AEC has started publishing 2CP counts between Labor and Carly Moore on their standard reporting platform. About two thirds of votes have been added to the count and Labor has 54.82%. While that will likely bounce around, it looks like a clear Labor win, and more so than other independent races like Bean and Fremantle.
Monday 11:36am – The Greens preferences have been distributed and we can call this as Labor retain.
68.6% of Greens preferences flowed to Labor, 24.7% to Moore and 6.6% to the Liberal.
The current standings are
- Abdo (ALP) 48.0% (+11.4%)
- Moore (IND) 29.7% (+4.1%)
- Ghani (LIB) 22.3% (+1.1%)
Based on the Fowler preference count we would expect about 70% of Liberal preferences to flow to Moore, leaving her on about 45-46% of the 2CP. Moore would need over 91% of Liberal preferences to win.
Friday 11:51am – Joseph Youhana’s preferences have just been distributed, and Carly Moore has gained over 58% of these votes, with just 16% going to Labor.
The new standings are:
- Abdo (ALP) 36.6% (+2.2%)
- Moore (IND) 25.6% (+8.1%)
- Ghani (LIB) 21.2% (+2.2%)
- Garcha (GRN) 16.7% (+1.4%)
Carly Moore’s chances of winning now look very good. She needs just 64.4% of the remaining preferences to win.
We don’t have a lot of great parallels ofr this race. The best one I can consider is Dai Le in Fowler in 2022. She likewise won a seat off a new Labor candidate in a multicultural area with Liberal preferences but not with Greens preferences. Moore is an ex-Labor mayor while Le was an ex-Liberal, which may help her a bit with the Greens.
Le gained 71.93% of Liberal preferences and 35.53% of Greens preferences. The distribution of preferences is slightly different because these candidates have gained other preferences through the count. In Fowler, 69.14% of Liberal preferences flowed to Dai Le in the distribution. For the Greens, they were knocked out before the UAP and flowed 52.5% to Labor, 24.8% to Le, 13.5% to Liberal and 9.3% to UAP.
If I apply 71.9% preferences to Moore to the Liberal vote and 35.5% to the Greens vote, she ends up losing with 46.7%.
But perhaps Moore will do better than Dai Le did? She seems more likely to peel away Greens voters, and apparently the Greens favoured her on the how-to-vote at pre-poll before changing their mind on election day.
This looks very close.
Thursday 12:55pm – Preferences from the Muslim independent Moslih have been distributed, and the Greens have overtaken Youhana. Youhana will now be knocked out.
The new standings are:
- Abdo (ALP) 34.4% (+1.0%)
- Ghani (LIB) 18.9% (+0.4%)
- Moore (IND) 17.5% (+1.1%)
- Garcha (GRN) 15.3% (+5.1%)
- Youhana (IND) 13.9% (+0.7%)
Youhana’s how-to-vote recommends preferences to Moore, so it seems likely that she will overtake the Liberal and stay ahead of the Greens, but really we just have to keep watching.
Wednesday 5pm – The count has now been updated with all votes for the One Nation candidate distributed to the next choice. Carly Moore picked up 1.7%, Labor 0.6%, Liberal 1.4% and Youhana 1.1%.
The next exclusion will be Muslim independent Moslih, who is on 8.2%. The Greens are on 10.2%, and Youhana on 13.2%. It is possible his preferences could push the Greens ahead of Youhana, but I doubt they will flow that strongly.
Wednesday 1:28pm – The fifth elimination has now been concluded, with Legalise Cannabis preferences being distributed. Moore has picked up another 1% of the formal vote, up to 14.7%, Youhana has picked up 0.2%, Labor is up another 0.7%, and the Liberal is up 0.2%.
One Nation will be excluded next, with 5.6% to distribute.
6:56pm – Two more counts have been conducted, distributing Family First and Citizens Party preferences. Legalise Cannabis are next. The full stats for the four lead candidates are at the bottom, but in short Carly Moore has picked up 1.8%, Labor has picked up 1.6%, Youhana 1.1% and Liberals 1.2%.
25.4% of the vote is sitting with the other four candidates:
- Greens – 9.1%
- Moslih – 7.6%
- One Nation – 5.0%
- Legalise Cannabis – 3.7%
Greens preferences flow to Moslih (who will already be out), then Youhana, then Labor, then Moore, so it is entirely possible that if many voters follow that how-to-vote it could still disrupt things. Moslih was endorsed by Muslim Votes Matter, who published a HTV ordering Greens, then Labor, then Youhana, then Moore, then Liberal. Moslih published his own how-to-vote card, but it had all the candidates polling more than him in the same order. So it is quite possible Moore could do poorly from voters following how to vote cards. But many will make up their own mind, and a popular independent may continue to attract more preferences.
Original post, 2:48pm Tuesday – The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.
There are 13 candidates running, so there will be eleven counts. So far the first three counts have been conducted, with independent candidates Peach and Ragupathy and Trumpet of Patriots candidates Issa already excluded with their votes distributed. Family First candidate Bengtsson is next in line.
You would expect each round of the count to take longer, as more and more votes need to be moved.
This table shows the share of the vote for the four leading candidates on the primary vote and each subsequent round:
Independent candidate Carly Moore is off to a strong start. She has already increased her primary vote by 0.8%, whereas fellow independent Joseph Youhana is only up 0.2%, Labor is up 0.5%, and the Liberal is up 0.4%.
The first question is whether Joseph Youhana can overtake Carly Moore and make the 3CP. Right now that looks pretty unlikely, as Moore is widening her lead over Youhana.
Moore right now looks quite plausible to overtake the Liberals, and if so I think she would probably be in a position to gain a strong flow of preferences and potentially beat Labor.
I’ll keep this post updated as we learn more.
I really don’t see Labor losing even on preferences. As Joseph said Moore would need almost 70% of preferences from the Liberals, minor parties and other independents combined.
I wonder if the huge swings against Labor here and in other Muslim majority seats (Blaxland and Watson) are similar to what happened in the recent UK election where Labour lost a few seats to Muslim independents.
Moslih exclusion went 61% to the Greens which is going to knock out Youhana. Pretty convincing preference flow there.
Any ideas why Greens put Youhana above Labor but not Moore? They both seem to be just fairly uncontroversial community-focused independents, at least as far as my very limited research would suggest.
Moore made comments on the campaign trail downplaying Palestine and saying she didn’t think it was important, which is almost certainly what caused Moslih, MVM and the Greens to put Labor ahead of her. Those comments may well end up costing her this election, depending on what happens on the Greens exclusion
Ah ok, thanks.
Labor will now likely win off the back of greens and moslih prerferences the inds only hope was for youhana to make 2cp and get greens preferences
Such a mindless move for them to have put Labor ahead of Moore. It’s as if they’re not serious when they condemn Labor over the issue of Palestine.
@ Nicholas
Carly Moore is an Anglo candidate and maybe there was fear that she wil back Dutton in a hung parliament she is centrist and only concerned with bread and butter issues a bit like Dai Le. The Greens backed Labor over Dai Le. There is always a fear that Dai Le may back Libs in a hung parliament.
I think it is fair enough for someone who prioritises the issue of Palestine to prefer Labor’s stance to that of an independent whose stance would be unknown. I think this is also a good candidate selection by Labor in picking a Palestinian Muslim and thus giving a soft signal to voters.
Moore may be a former Labor mayor, Abdo was even her staffer at one point, but there seems to be a lot of bad blood between her and the ALP with her & Abdo preferencing each other very low.
im predicting a close race maybe between 50/50 -52/48. if you look at the counts
Abdo (ALP) 34.4% (+1.0%)
Ghani (LIB) 18.9% (+0.4%)
Moore (IND) 17.5% (+1.1%)
Garcha (GRN) 15.3% (+5.1%)
Youhana (IND) 13.9% (+0.7%)
ALP + GRN = 49.7%. Moore + Youhana + Liberals = 50.3%
if you take into account leakage Labor might spill over the line since they have 2 parties to get leakage from as opposed to Moore only having the Greens.
As I’ve said previously (can’t remember if it was this thread or another) I’d expect Greens prefs to flow weaker to Labor than the others to Moore, as a lot of the Greens voters will be either general or specifically palestine protest voters, many of whom will put labor either last or close to it.
what change Youhana flow strongly to the greens knocking out Moore?
almost 0 Youhana has directed preferences towards Moore
Labor is going to have a good preference flow from Palestine voters considering they were put above both Moore and Ghani on Moslih and the MVM cards, and there’s clearly been a strong flow that appears to follow those cards. Moore seems to not be regarded highly on the issue by these voters. I believe Labor’s selection of a Palestinian Muslim also signals to these voters that they will be represented.
I think it’s pretty unlikely the Greens jump Moore on Youhana preferences but I think the Youhana HTV has very little impact on this chance. While the Moslih exclusion does offer an intriguing counterexample, it’s generally the case that independents’ HTVs have low follow rates due to the difficulty of independents getting their HTVs into voters’ hands. There are accounts of Muslim Votes Matters having a strong presence handing out for Moslih which seem now to be backed up, but in the absence of similar claims for the Youhana campaign I doubt the specific recommendation he made is more strong than a general Independent -> Independent flow.
All that said, I think it would be difficult for the Greens to overtake Moore at this point without a strong reason to expect them to gain heavily on the Youhana exclusion.
@ john- That said, Greens voters typically have a fairly low compliance rate when it comes to following the HTV. I think we’ll have a much clearer picture after the next 2 exclusions are completed (Youhana and presumably Kaur)
@mark good point. i spose we will see a clearer picture after youhanas preferences have been distributed.
Would not be surprised if Greens and Moore move ahead of Liberals once Youhana preferences are distributed. If the Greens do move ahead of Moore in the Youhana count, they will then fall behind again once Liberal preferences are distributed.
i dont think the greens are gonna overtake the libs on this count
they would need to receive at least 25% of preferences just to get over them with the libs getting 0.
after the first 5 rounds the pick up in preferences seems to be strongest to the greens with approx one third and Moore just under a third
Moslih’s preferences flew very strongly to the Greens, putting Greens ahead of Yohana. This is not unexpected considering Moslih campaigned heavily on a pro-Palestine platform and pro-Palestine voters tend to favour the Greens. Moslih himself and Muslim Votes Matter’s (which endorses Moslih) HTV also put the Greens ahead of Yohana, Moore, Labor and the Liberal Party.
What’s interesting is that Moore received the second largest share of Moslih’s preferences after the Greens, even slightly more than Labor’s, despite both Moslih and MVM put Labor ahead of Moore on their HTV.
Yohana’s preferences should favour Moore, not only because his HTV puts Moore ahead of Labor, Liberal and Greens, but also Yohana and Moore shared the same platform of Labor’s perceived neglect of the electorate. Therefore I predict Yohana’s preferences will push Moore ahead of the Liberal Party, and then Greens preferences will increase Moore’s lead over the Liberal Party. It’s very unlikely that Yohana’s preferences would push the Greens ahead of Moore.
Joseph: Moore gets the donkey vote, so even with a crazy strong preference flow from Moslih to Green, the rest of his prefs will have an obvious bias to her.
With 13 people on the ballot, there’ll be a fair few people who went 1 (person they’re voting for), 2 (they seem OK) then 3-13 donkey. Have you ever been in a Woolies line when your bank card gets rejected and you have to think, real quick? That sort of vibe.
BoP
I have definitely done that especially with senate papers.
I sometimes suspect that the Labor 2pp in Teal seats is inflated for this very reason as people don’t care as they know their Teal candidate will be in the final two.
@bird no but i did get fired from woolies for having a mental illness and then when i realised they had been abusing me they fabricated some theft allegations to get rid of me so i dont shop there anymore
You hana has been distributed
the majority went to Moore
the curret count is
Labor – 36.59% – 15.73
Moore – 25.56% – 58.09
Liberal – 21.20% -16.19
Greens – 16.65% – 9.99
the greens are next
so in order for Moore to have some sort of chance she woud need at least 30% if not more of green preferences
I’m not sure that last update is right looks like a typo on Moore’s number (25.56% not 26.6%) which means Moore’s required preferences is 64.6% rather than 61.7%.
I think how much of the Greens’ exclusion flows to Labor is more key to Moore’s success, because I think whatever combined percentage flows to Moore + LIB out of that one will help her.
Let’s assume the Liberals only increase to around 23% after the Greens’ exclusion which is likely, meaning there will be 23% to distribute at the final exclusion.
If Labor get 50% of the Greens’ exclusion, which I think will most likely be close to a minimum, that puts them at around 45% which means Moore will need around 78% of the final exclusion to win (very possible and could be close to a 50/50 race).
If Labor get 60% of the Greens’ exclusion – which I think is also very likely – that will put Labor around 47%, meaning Moore will need about 87% of the final exclusion to win, far less likely.
So basically, I think the key figure in the next exclusion is that a 50% preference flow to Labor will give them a 3CP of 45%. Anything below that will probably lean towards Moore winning, anything above that will lean towards Labor winning.
moore will probably need 48% at least of green preferences and 78% of lib preferences to win
My prediction after the next exclusion is a 3CP of around:
Labor – 47
Moore – 30
Liberal – 23
Moore couldn’t win from there, I think that would translate to a Labor 2CP in the range of 52-53%. Labor really need to be kept under a 45% 3CP for Moore to win I think, which means getting less than 50% of the Greens’ exclusion.
My prediction is a Labor retain with roughly a 52-48 2CP.
@trent im inclined to agree with you give or take 1% on the 3cp im sayin 52-48 to labor
The AEC has confirmed that there won’t be further counting on the weekend. And to not expect another update today as the numbers of ballot papers is getting larger with subsequent exclusions. So there won’t be more news from Calwell until Monday.
The Greens HTV had 2,3 now eliminated independents, 4 Labor. There may be Greens voters who put Labor 2nd as recommended in most seats.
youve also got to remember some people just put 1 in their prefered candidate and then just donkey vote the rest
Yes, that benefits Moore because people put 2 to 13 in random places.
Abdo is apparently getting a very strong flow of preferences from Greens voters (60% or more). That would put this to bed. I think this will probably be more like a 54% margin when all is said and done, so not that close in the end.
Kevin Bonham’s blog indicates the rate is even higher among Moslih > Greens voters in that exclusion too. Sounds like they’re heading towards a 3CP in the 47-48 range, at which point it’s done & dusted.
Interesting at this point- most other psephologists seem to be hanging their hats on the Moslih (via Greens) and Greens preference flow to still have Abdo getting over the line, but as noted there is no real precedent barring Fowler 2022 for the strength of the Liberal preference flow to an Independent in an IND v ALP contest, so if that’s higher than expected it could compensate for that. It’s also difficult to say how much one can read into the information from scrutineers as to how well the Moslih > Greens flow will translate to preferences then going on to Labor (even if they are telling Antony Green it looks ‘strong’) in an electorate where a lot of voters seemed eager to give Labor a whack.
The psephs are relying on scrutineer information for preference flows. They are usually quite reliable because they have already counted these ballots over several weeks, so the scrutineers have seen in their rounds of counting just how often 1 Greens voters are putting Labor high on the ballot and similarly for Moslih.
There was someone on the Discord yesterday who posted a scrutineer report of what they believed the Youhana exclusion was looking like, and it was:
Labor +2.2
Moore +8.5
Liberal +2.3
Greens +1.0
In the end the actual result after they finished it today was:
Labor +2.2
Moore +8.1
Liberal +2.2
Greens +1.4
So it turned out to be very accurate, I think the scrutineer reports probably give a pretty good indication of where things are heading.
@Adda Definitely not disagreeing, but I think some may be conflating what scrutineers are saying (on my reading) about Abdo getting 60% of preferences from votes where Greens got a first preference (the initial 8.29%) with the total post allocation pile of 16.7% Green which will be distributed being 60% to Abdo; to me it would be quite surprising for one candidate of 3 to get more than 60% of that pile given all the other inputs. Don’t get me wrong, still think one would clearly rather be Abdo than Moore at this point
@Adda & Trent yes these scrutineers will actually have close to precise counts by marking each preference on a bar chart as the ballot papers fell carefully onto the pile from the careful hand of the presiding officer. If it turns out that their prediction is wrong, it will only be because they are not telling us the truth.
People put a lot of weight on how to vote cards. My observation (and what I believe is shown by the studies done of actual preference flows) is that voters set their own path.
If Moore wins through those who criticise elsewhere big party candidates winning with not much over 30% of first preference votes will need to think carefully before commenting. From my perspective the vote count in Calwell shows that the preference system works fairly well. If Moore gets there it will be because others wanted her there ahead of Labor.
@Mark It’s true that less than half of the ballots currently in the Greens pile are 1 Greens votes, but a big chunk of the remainder are from Moslih’s exclusion which are presumed to be following either his or Muslim Votes Matter’s how-to-vote card, both of which go to Labor after the Greens. The remainder are functionally random and might favour Moore on a donkey vote basis but probably not strongly. I think on balance this adds up to a pretty strong flow to Labor even counting all the random other ballots in that pile.
The other thing to remember in a seat like Calwell is low education levels and low levels of English. @Nether Portal kindly did a table a while back and Calwell has the lowest % of people who speak English at home in Victoria. For this reason just like in Fowler people actually need a HTV card with all boxes numbered in order to cast a formal vote as many people are not capable in a seat like this. This means compliance with HTV especially among Moslih’s voters will be high. It the same reason why in the state seat of Greenvale, the TPP swing to Libs was the highest in the state. One of the candiates was Fatma Erciyas a Muslim independent who ran but but preferenced Liberals second she did well in the poorest part of Greenvale (Meadow Heights). This inflated the TPP swing to the Libs eventhough many 2018 Labor voters who voted for Fatma would have never voted Liberal had she not ran. So it does not mean that her primary votes actually prefer Libs over Labor.
This seat will be interesting in 2028 if labor holds on. If the field narrows it might help the inds get over the line