For today I’ve got two maps, covering five seats in mid-suburban Sydney. While these seats are adjacent to each other, I’m keeping them as separate maps because the dynamics in these seats are different. The first map shows Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid. The second map shows the “Muslim seats” of Blaxland and Watson.
First, heading to Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid, these seats showed enormous and consistent swings on the two-party-preferred vote from Liberal to Labor, with almost every booth in the three seats swinging to Labor.
The swings were generally bigger in Bennelong than Reid. Most of the booths added to Bennelong from North Sydney in Lane Cove and Hunters Hill had double-digit 2PP swings.
In Parramatta, swings generally cracked double digits around the eastern and western ends, and were smaller in the middle around the Parramatta city centre.
I also included a map showing the Greens primary vote because I am particularly interested in the big increase in the Greens vote near I live in central Parramatta – some of the booths in my area had Greens primary votes of 18-21%, with swings of 4-6%. The Greens gained swings in almost all of Reid and Parramatta, and also gained substantial swings in the new bits of Bennelong where they are no longer competing with a teal. But in the Ryde area the Greens went backwards in many booths.
As for the second map, unfortunately we have two different 2CP pairings. In the more northern seat of Blaxland the AEC’s count is still between Labor and Liberal. Right now local independent Ahmed Ouf is 78 votes ahead of the Liberal on the 3CP, so it really isn’t clear who will end up in the top two. This map would probably be more interesting if Ouf made the 2CP. Based on the experience in neighbouring Watson, I suspect Ouf would get a bigger 2CP share than the Liberals. I’ll try to remember to update this map with Ouf in the 2CP if he makes it there – remind me if I forget.
Basyouny’s vote peaked around Greenacre, and this was also the only place where he got to 50% of the 2CP count. There was one small booth where Basyouny polled 50% of the primary vote but otherwise his highest booths were around 34%.
While Basyouny has more clearly came second and Ouf’s position is not clear, Ouf actually polled a higher primary vote, polling 46-47% in parts of South Granville, which is his local council ward.
I also included a Greens vote map because it is quite interesting how they appear to be picking up support outside of their heartland. The Greens did suffer small swings in the strongest areas for Basyouny and Ouf, but otherwise picked up support across both seats. In particular they gained swings of 4% and 7% in central Bankstown and 8% in Guildford. They also did well in Lakemba and Wiley Park, polling well over 10%.
Interesting, the Teals or Legalise Cannabis would have taken some of the traditional Greens voters where I live, but heartened to see the Greens pick up extra votes in central Parramatta. As you say Ben, gaining swings in “almost all of Reid and Parramatta, and also gained substantial swings in the new bits of Bennelong where they are no longer competing with a teal.” An interesting dissection here, and the Greens also had some very strong candidates in these areas where the swings occurred. Thanks.
I think the 2pp swing to Labor should be included.
The Independents in both seats will come third. So the 2pp map should reflect this.
The informal will be second highest in both seats.
Both seats should become highest Labor votes ever over 72%.2 Blaxlands highest Labor votes in 1993.
The swing in Bennelong was extraordinary. The Lib campaign should become a textbook example of how not to do it. The candidate was completely unknown and they plastered his face everywhere. Even on parked vehicles that created a traffic hazard. My non political friends and acquaintances hated him by the end of the campaign.
Not only that, but the Plymouth Brethren droves votes to the ALP by their high pressure, occasionally thuggish, behaviour. They are truly the CFMEU of the Liberal party.
We don’t have any 2PP figures in Watson because they have done a 2CP between Labor and Basyouny, so there is no swing. And I don’t think the 2PP is particularly interesting in Blaxland. Right now Ouf is ahead of the Liberals on the 3CP so I think your confidence is overstated.
It’s pretty silly to brag about having such a high Labor vote in Blaxland when they’ve got a 5.5% swing against them.