Tasmania flew under the radar in the lead up to the recent election, because of the lack of state polling in Tasmania. It was a “known unknown” to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and I do remember commenting that we didn’t know how things were going in Tasmania, but still we did not know. This did create space for some fevered commenters on this website to confidently assert that Labor was on track to be badly beaten, but now we know better.
This booth map covers the three electorates that cover the north or centre of the state. You can toggle between the 2PP vote and the primary vote for Labor and Liberal, both seeing the percentage and the swing.
The swings to Anne Urquhart in Braddon were massive, and I can’t see enormous differences across the seat – perhaps slightly bigger swings in Devonport and Ulverstone than Burnie, but we’re still talking mid-teen 2PP swings in Burnie.
Swings were still big but a bit more modest in Bass. Within Launceston, the swings were bigger in the south and east.
It does look like Labor’s swings in Lyons were bigger in the north, close to Launceston.
But almost every booth in these three seats recorded a swing to Labor on the 2PP.
Anyone able to explain the big swings in Bass and Braddon? Any chance some state level dissapointment with the Lib state govt?
Lyons I can half understand by running Rebecca White.
@Blather, Tasmanians like moderate conservatives so Dutton didnt do well. Nothing to do with the state government as they are still ahead in the polls.
Anyway, it seems the Liberals still did well or at least okay in the rural booths but flopped hard in the cities and big towns, aka the major population centres (Hobart, Launceston, Burnie, Devonport, etc).
On The Australian they currently have an article regarding Jacqui Lambie’s big drop in voter support (and having to hope preferences deliver her re-election to the Senate where previously she got near a full quota quite easily) due to her opposition to the Tasmanian salmon industry, contrasting with Anne Urquhart’s strong support for it (and getting Albo to back it) helping to deliver big gains for Labor in the north (the Libs losing their local member in Braddon, Labor tying voting for Bridget Archer to voting for Dutton in Bass, and Rebecca White’s local popularity in Lyons also helped). Of course the flipside is it also heavily impacted Julie Collins in Franklin.
Other than Greater Brisbane, Northern Tasmania was the biggest surprise on election night. It flew under the radar. I also find the Tasmanian swings hardest to understand. I’m still in some disbelief.
The biggest swing this election was in Braddon. Anne Urquhart is from NW Tasmania and so she has a local profile in Braddon. She took a gamble to quit the senate to run in Braddon and it paid off. The Liberal MP was retiring.
Labor was better able to campaign and connect with working-class, semi-rural and small town voters. The media says it’s mainly about salmon farming. Salmon farming is probably like the Adani Carmichael mine issue of Tasmania – once Labor backed it, it got votes as they were seen as pro-jobs and pro-business.
This article might give more clues on how Labor won.
https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-6-experts-on-how-the-election-unfolded-across-the-country-255508