NSW councils – post-count

This blog post will be used to track the close counts for the 26 big partisan councils. I’m going to be busy this week packing for a house move so won’t be doing big updates in one go, but I’ll update a council at a time when I get a chance.

If there is no time mentioned, assume the analysis is as of first thing Tuesday morning. There are 102 contests being tracked. 42 of those contests have an undecided seat, for a total of 47 undecided seats.

Over the next two weeks we will first get the last votes for the initial count – mostly postal and pre-poll votes. And then the check count will involve data entering ballots, which will mean that below-the-line votes will enter the count and we can compare the two counts. I expect many of those undecided seats will be gradually called, and the final seats will be called in early October when the buttons are pushed.

I’ll also list here when I have made updates to some of the councils:

• Wednesday morning, 9am – Bayside, Blacktown, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Central Coast, Cumberland.
  • The independent has increased her lead over the second Libertarian in Camden North. Independent councillor Eva Campbell gained the lead over ex-Labor independent Cindy Cagney on Tuesday.
  • Called the twelfth seat in Campbelltown for the third CFTI candidate.
• Wednesday lunchtime – Georges River, Hornsby, Inner West.
  • Called the final seat in Peakhurst for the second GRRRP candidate, giving the party four seats on the council while leading in a fifth. They’ve also narrowed the gap on Labor in Mortdale.
  • Liberals significantly narrowed the gap on the Greens in Hornsby B, but Greens still lead.
• Wednesday evening – Lake Macquarie, Liverpool, Mid-Coast, Newcastle, Northern Beaches.
  • I have un-called the Greens seat for Mid-Coast but they remain very likely to win. Independent candidate Thomas O’Keefe’s vote shot up, and he is now in pole position to win the eleventh seat and not far behind the Greens candidate.
  • Good For Manly has done very well on the latest counting for Manly, but the Greens look likely to win.
• Thursday evening – Parramatta, Penrith, Randwick, Ryde, Shoalhaven, Sutherland, Sydney, The Hills, Tweed, Wollongong.
  • I have called the third Dundas seat for Kellie Darley, and the third Parramatta seat for the Greens.
  • Below the line votes gave a decent boost to Gardiner in Penrith North and Day in Penrith South, sufficient to call the fourth seat in the South Ward for Day’s running mate. This leaves Labor and Libertarian competing for the final seat.
  • I have called the final seat in Randwick for the ALP, giving them six seats. The Greens councillor has gained a swing but will lose due to the absence of an independent and thus a big increase in the Labor vote.
  • I have called the last seat in Shoalhaven for Team Tribe, locking out the Greens from any seats.
  • I have called the last seat in The Hills East for Labor.
• Friday morning – Bayside, Blacktown, Camden.
  • I haven’t called any seats, but below-the-line votes significantly weaken the Greens in all three Bayside wards still in play, increasing Barlow’s lead, putting Hollink in front and bringing Peaceful Bayside closer in Ward 3.
• Friday lunchtime – Campbelltown
  • Called the 13th and 14th seats for Adam Zahra and the second Community Voice candidate. The Greens are projected to just be ahead of Sustainable Australia after below-the-lines are factored in.
• Friday night – Blacktown, Canterbury-Bankstown.
  • Had to revisit Blacktown 2 because apparently there had been an error where the Greens and Labor votes at Quakers Hill prepoll had been transposed. With that corrected, the Greens are barely ahead of Labor. All three could win.
  • Called the second seat in the Canterbury ward for independent Barbara Coorey thanks to her very strong below-the-line performance.
• Saturday night – Central Coast, Cumberland, Georges River, Hornsby, Inner West, Lake Macquarie, Liverpool.
  • No seats called in Central Coast, but Lamont has taken the lead in The Entrance after factoring in below-the-line votes.
  • I’ve called all three seats in South Granville for OLC, Labor and independent Ouf.
  • I’ve called the final seat in Wentworthville for the Greens after a very strong below-the-line performance.
  • Below-the-line votes made little difference in Georges River.
  • I have called the third seat in Hornsby B for the Greens after the Liberals did poorly on below-the-line votes. It made little difference in Hornsby C.
  • In Inner West, I’ve called the final seat in Marrickville for independent Vic Macri. The addition of below the line votes has made little difference in the other two wards, but Labor remains the favourite.
  • I’ve called the final seat in Lake Macquarie North for Labor.
  • I’ve called the fourth seat in Liverpool South for Labor.
• Sunday night – Mid-Coast.
  • I have called the final two seats for the Greens and independent O’Keefe.
• Tuesday morning – Newcastle
  • I’ve called Ross Kerridge’s Ward 1 seat.

Bayside – ALP 6, LIB 5, PBAY 1, Undecided 3
Updated Fri 20 September morning

Wards 1 and 5 are locked down, as are the first two seats in Wards 2, 3 and 4. Labor has won a second seat in Ward 1, and Peaceful Bayside’s Heidi Lee Douglas has won the third seat in Ward 5.

In the other three wards, all election day and pre-poll votes have now been counted, plus a small batch of postal votes.

• Ward 2 – Greens are leading with 0.64 over Hollink on 0.59. Peaceful Bayside have 0.42 quotas and Labor has 0.35. But Hollink does quite well on below-the-line votes, so I’m projecting she’ll have a lead at the end of the primary count on 0.64 quotas to 0.61 for the Greens, 0.43 for Peaceful Bayside and 0.31 for Labor. Not clear who would win in that position.
• Ward 3 – Greens are leading with 0.66 over Peaceful Bayside on 0.54. Tsounis is on 0.49 quotas and other candidates have 0.30 quotas. Greens do quite poorly on below-the-line votes, shrinking their lead over Peaceful Bayside from 0.12 quotas to just 0.04 quotas. Good chance Peaceful Bayside could come from behind and win.
• Ward 4 – Barlow is on 0.64 quotas, Greens on 0.48, Peaceful Bayside on 0.39 and second Labor on 0.4 quotas. Barlow does very well on below-the-line votes while the Greens are neutral, expanding the gap to 0.70 to 0.48, with about 0.8 quota in preferences mostly from Labor and Peaceful Bayside. Greens will probably benefit from Peaceful Bayside preferences but the gap is quite substantial. I am close to calling this race for Barlow.

Blacktown – ALP 8, LIB 6, Undecided 1
Updated Fri 20 September evening

All but one ward is decided. Wards 3, 4 and 5 are split 2-1 in favour of Labor, while Ward 1 is splitting 2-1 in favour of Liberal.

In Ward 2, all election day booths have reported, along with pre-poll at Blacktown, Stanhope Gardens and Tragear and a slightly bigger batch of postals.

• Ward 2 – the Liberals are leading with 0.71 over the Greens on 0.66 and Labor on 0.63. If the Liberal Party has a slim lead, it’s likely the runner up will catch up on preferences, but if the gap becomes larger the Liberal Party could win. Once you factor in below the line votes, my projection is Liberal 0.7, Greens 0.67 and Labor 0.63.

Camden – ALP 3, LBT 1, LIB 1, IND 1, Undecided 2
Updated Fri 20 September morning

The Central Ward has been decided, as have two seats in the other two wards.

In the North and South wards, all election day votes have been counted along with a small batch of postals in the South Ward.

• North Ward – Independent Suri is leading with 1.02 over the second Libertarian with 0.80. Second Labor candidate Molly Quinnell has 0.20 quotas of preferences, very few of which will be needed to elect the first Labor candidate. One thing worth noting is that Labor’s candidates are below-the-line, so they won’t benefit from many votes currently in the “informal/others” pile being reclassified, so it’s likely the other two groups will increase their vote share. Right now Suri is in a strong position but if her relative position falls back, she doesn’t have a big lead. We don’t have any below-the-line votes yet for the ATL groups, but the late counting for the initial count has made little difference.
• South Ward – Campbell is leading with 0.74 over Cagney with 0.63. Preferences include 0.37 from Sillato, 0.19 from the second Libertarian and 0.07 from the second Labor candidate. Cagney and Campbell are both centre-left independents. Campbell did well on counting on Tuesday, turning an 0.03 deficit into an 0.11 lead, but no changes have happened in the second half of the week.

Campbelltown – 6 ALP, 3 CFTI, 2 CVA, 1 GRN, 1 IND, 1 SUS, 1 Undecided
Updated Fri 20 September lunchtime

Twelve seats have previously been decided. Three of the groups are sitting on close to one quota, but with late counting and the quota being such a small share of the total, they could easily shift up or down quite significantly.

All election day and pre-poll votes, along with quite a few postals, have been counted.

At the moment the leading groups for the final three seats, after factoring in below-the-line votes, are:

• Adam Zahra – 0.96
• Community Voice – 0.94
• Greens – 0.69
• Sustainable Australia – 0.67
• Labor – 0.34

I called the twelfth seat on Wednesday morning when the CFTI vote jumped from 2.91 to 3.13 quotas.

With the below the line data on Friday, I’ve called two more seats for Zahra and Community Voice.

The final seat is now a head-to-head contest between Greens and Sustainable Australia. Labor is not in a position to retain its seventh seat.

Canterbury-Bankstown – ALP 7, LIB 3, OLC 1, IND 1, Undecided 3
Updated Fri 20 September evening

The Bankstown and Revesby wards have been decided.

• Bass Hill – Libertarian is leading with 0.76 over Community Voice with 0.70, Saifo with 0.30 and Labor with 0.23. Community Voice does better on below-the-line votes, so my projection is CVA 0.73, Libertarian 0.72, Saifo 0.32 and ALP 0.23. Very hard to pick.
• Canterbury – Sitting independent Barbara Coorey has reached a full quota on the initial count, and she also does quite well on below-the-lines, so I am calling her as winning the second seat in this ward. On the initial count she is on 1.01 quotas with the Greens on 0.71 and Labor on 0.64. On the projection with below-the-line votes, I have Coorey on 1.1 quotas, the Greens on 0.69 and Labor on 0.56, with 0.51 of other preferences to flow. Labor could catch up to the Greens for the final seat.
• Roselands – Our Local Community’s Harry Stavrinos looks set to win the second seat, while Labor is on 0.52, the Greens are on 0.40, Libertarian on 0.39 and Liberal on 0.32. Labor is the favourite to win the third seat. We don’t have much below-the-line data here.

Central Coast – ALP 5, LIB 4, McKinna 2, Undecided 4
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The Gosford East and Wyong wards have been decided.

All election day booths and all pre-polls have reported, plus a decent batch of postals

• Budgewoi – Eaton is leading with 0.75, Mouland is on 0.67 and the Greens are on 0.61. Labor and Central Coast Heart have just over 0.4 quotas each to distribute. There are two seats available, but the Greens could potentially catch up on one of the two independents. When you add in the below-the-line figures, all three leaders gain ground, but the two independents more so than the Greens: Eaton 0.78, Mouland 0.70, Greens 0.62.
• Gosford West – Smith is leading on 0.46 with Bellamy just behind on 0.44, Brooks is on 0.42 and Abou-Chedid on 0.35. All four candidates increase their position on below-the-lines: Smith 0.49, Bellamy 0.45, Brooks 0.44, Abou-Chedid 0.38.
• The Entrance – Liberal is on 0.52, Animal Justice is on 0.43, Lamont on 0.40, Bellamy on 0.30 and Labor on 0.26. The below-the-line votes increase the position of both independents, with Lamont taking the lead. Bellamy’s vote includes a substantial below-the-line vote for her running mate Skaie Hull, who has polled more below-the-line votes than anyone except the two elected Liberal and Labor candidates. The below-the-line projection is Lamont 0.47, Liberal 0.46, AJP 0.42, Brownlee 0.39, Labor 0.20.

Cumberland – ALP 5, LIB 3, OLC 3, IND 2, GRN 1, Undecided 1
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The Granville and Greystanes wards have been decided. I am now ready to call the South Granville and Wentworthville wards.

• Regents Park – Liberal is leading with 0.72, over Quah on 0.46 and ALP on 0.46. The Liberal Party are a likely winner.
• South Granville – I had previously not called any seats in this ward, with three candidates very close on just under a quota with a fourth (Oueik) not far behind. But Oueik has fallen further behind on later counting, and barely recovered with below-the-line votes, so I’ve called the result for Labor, OLC and Ouf.
• Wentworthville – The Greens are leading with 0.69 with Labor on 0.44, Alameh on 0.40 and Liberal on 0.31. The Greens have done extremely well on below the line votes, which pushes the Greens projection to 0.76 quotas, ahead of Alameh on 0.43. I can’t see this gap closing, so I’ve called this seat for the Greens.

Fairfield – Carbone-Le 10, ALP 2, IND 1

The mayoral race and both wards are very clear.

Georges River – ALP 5, GRRR 4, LIB 3, IND 1, Undecided 2
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The Blakehurst and Hurstville wards have been decided. The Peakhurst ward was also decided on Wednesday when the GRRRP vote share increased from 2.16 to 2.22 quotas with not many votes left to be counted and not enough likely BTL votes to change the result.

In the other two wards, we now have all election day and pre-poll booths and some postal votes.

• Kogarah Bay – GRRR 0.72, ALP 0.59, LIB 0.28, KRA 0.27, LBT 0.14. I’m not quite ready to call this for GRRRP but they are likely to benefit from preferences. Below-the-line votes have made little difference.
• Mortdale – ALP 0.84, GRRR 0.75, Stojkov 0.24, GRN 0.15. Labor has a lead but it’s not insurmountable, and it has shrunk as the pre-poll votes were counted. The addition of below-the-line votes has increased both leading parties by about 0.02 quotas due to the fact that the “informal/others” pile did not include votes cast for the three below-the-line candidates. This brings Labor closer to the quota and reduces the pool of preferences for GRRRP to chase them down.

Hornsby – LIB 5, GRN 2, ALP 1, IND 1, Undecided 1
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The mayoral race and A Ward have been decided. I’m now ready to call the B Ward.

In the other two wards, the only votes missing are the Cherrybrook and Hornsby pre-polls, plus declaration and postal votes.

• B Ward – GRN leading with 0.84 over LIB on 0.81 and Sellers on 0.28. Sellers did very well on below-the-line votes, but the Liberal vote was hit particularly hard, producing a projection of GRN 0.81, LIB 0.71 and Sellers 0.38. This gap is now wide enough to call the result for the Greens.
• C Ward – ALP leading with 0.86 over GRN with 0.80. This race is very close. The below-the-line votes made little difference.

Inner West – ALP 6, GRN 5, LIB 1, IND 1, Undecided 2
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The Balmain and Leichhardt wards have been decided. I’m now also prepared to call the last seat in Marrickville for independent Vic Macri.

• Ashfield – LIB leading with 0.87, Labor on 0.73 and Greens on 0.40. The below-the-line votes made little difference. Greens preferences should strongly favour Labor, so Labor is the favourite here.
• Marrickville – Macri leading with 0.89, Labor on 0.71 and Greens on 0.40. With below-the-line votes factored in, I project that Macri will end up on 0.97 quotas, and Labor on 0.69. That’s enough for Macri to win.
• Stanmore – Labor leading with 0.73, Greens on 0.70, Liberal on 0.57. The below-the-line votes made little difference. Liberal preferences will likely favour Labor, but I think they’ll mostly exhaust. Labor are the favourites if nothing changes.

Lake Macquarie – ALP 6, LIB 3, LMI 3, Undecided 1
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The mayoralty and East Ward have been decided. I have now also called the last seat in the North Ward. If Labor win the last undecided seat, they will win a majority, but they have fallen behind for that seat.

• North Ward – Labor is leading with 0.93, Greens are on 0.68 and there is 0.39 quotas of other preferences. I was waiting to see if the Greens could pick up ground, but they have not, and the below-the-line votes have made little impact, so I’ve called the final seat for Labor.
• West Ward – Swinsburg is leading with 0.38, Labor is on 0.35, Our Local Community on 0.34, Dawson on 0.34, the Greens on 0.33 and Lake Mac Independents on 0.23. This race is very wide open. The below-the-line votes had a minimal impact but increased Swinsburg to 0.40 and Dawson to second on 0.35. With four candidates within 0.02 quotas of each other and the leader just 0.05 ahead of the pack, this race could go any way, but I suspect the leading independents will attract the most preferences.

Liverpool – LIB 5, ALP 3, Undecided 3
Updated Sat 21 September evening

The mayoralty has been decided.

For the council, the Liberals have won 4 and Labor has won 4. The Liberal-leaning independent Rhodes has clearly lost her seat. Her former ally Harle, who has worked with Labor, is still in with a good chance. Peter Ristevski of Our Local Community, who has been attacked fiercely by the Liberal campaign, is also in with a good chance. So despite winning the mayoralty it is possible the Liberals may be left without allies to form a working majority.

In both wards we now have all election day and pre-poll votes, and unlike in NSWEC-run councils we also have below-the-line figures for all of these vote categories, but we have no postal votes.

• North Ward – Liberal leading with 0.54, Liverpool Community Independents (Harle) with 0.52, OLC 0.45, Libertarian 0.32. LCIT has a good chance of winning, but the Liberal has now gained a slight lead.
• South Ward – There are two seats left to decide. Labor leads with 0.81, OLC has 0.57, Libertarian 0.46, Liberal 0.43, LCIT 0.30. If the Liberals were to defeat OLC they would hold a council majority, but if they miss out then OLC would be in a key balance of power position. I am now prepared to call the second Labor seat, with one seat left to be called.

Mid-Coast – IND 5, LBT 3, ALP 2, GRN 1
Updated Sun 22 September evening

A surprisingly large number of tickets are close to or just over quotas, to the point where I was prepared to call nine out of eleven seats on close to a quota.

The elected independents are:

• Alan Tickle and Nicole Turnbull. Tickle won a single seat in 2021 but has gained a 4% swing.
• Peter Howard. Howard was elected as Peter Epov’s second candidate in 2021 but they have suffered a 7.6% swing with Epov’s retirement.
• Jeremy Miller. Miller was first elected in 2021 but has increased his vote by 3.7%.
• Thomas O’Keefe. O’Keefe is a new councillor who looks set to win the final seat.

Four out of seven incumbent independent councillors were running again. Three of them have been re-elected, along with one extra, and the other is set to be the last candidate knocked out of the race without a seat. The council has more partisan councillors, with Labor gaining a second seat and three Libertarians replacing two Liberals. Plus the Greens look set to win a second seat.

For the final two seats, the Greens’ Dheera Smith is leading with 0.79, O’Keefe has 0.76, sitting councillor Paul Sandilands has 0.51, Howard’s running mate Clancy on 0.28, Mellows with 0.28 and Miller’s running mate Ballard on 0.13.

After factoring in the below-the-line votes, Sandilands makes very little progress in overtaking the two leaders, so I am prepared to call those final two seats for Smith and O’Keefe.

Newcastle – ALP 4, LIB 2, GRN 2, OUN 2, Undecided 3
Updated Tues 24 September morning

The Newcastle lord mayoralty is the most high-profile undecided race and it is really quite close. The NSWEC has already counted all of the election day and pre-poll votes, and quite a few postal votes – the vast majority of those returned, and almost half of those that could theoretically be returned. It would be great if we could get a notional 2CP count there, but we won’t be getting one. If we had that, I suspect this race could be called soon.

Our Newcastle’s Ross Kerridge is leading with 35.19%, with Labor’s incumbent Nuatali Nelmes on 31.87%, the Greens on 14.90% and the Liberal on 12.69%. The check count is also progressing and at the moment Kerridge is doing 0.1% better than he did on the first count, and Nelmes 0.1% worse.

For the council wards, Ward 3 has been decided. I am now also prepared to call the final seat in Ward 1 for Ross Kerridge, although if he is elected mayor it will go to his running mate Peter Gittins.

• Ward 1 – Kerridge leads with 0.92 quotas, followed by Liberal on 0.67 and 0.40 quotas sitting with Labor, Greens or Socialist Alliance. Kerridge has done extremely well on below-the-line votes, so when I estimate the final vote based on that trend, he ends up exceeding a quota, with the Liberal on 0.65 quotas. If Kerridge is elected mayor (as seems likely) his seat will go to Peter Gittins.
• Ward 2 – Greens lead on 0.88, Our Newcastle is on 0.84 and Labor’s second candidate has 0.23 quotas. The below-the-line votes favour both Greens and Our Newcastle, so I project that they will end up on 0.91 and 0.86 respectively. That’s good news for the Greens as that is a slight increase in their lead and reduces the pool of available preferences. Labor registered how-to-votes recommending a preference to the Greens, and another issuing no preference. I believe the former was handed out. The Greens remain the favourite to win.
• Ward 4 – ALP lead on 0.76, Our Newcastle is on 0.68 and Greens are on 0.55. Below-the-line votes are favourable to Our Newcastle, so my projection is Labor 0.73, Our Newcastle 0.70, Greens 0.54. Greens preferences on paper flow to Labor but that may not be followed by Greens voters. Labor is still likely to win.

Northern Beaches – YNB 7, IND 3, GRN 2, GFM 1, Undecided 2
Updated Wed 18 September evening

Curl Curl, Narrabeen and Pittwater have been decided.

In the other two wards, we have election day booths fully reported along with the Avalon, Balgowlah and Brookvale pre-poll booths. We also have five booths reporting the check count for Frenchs Forest (almost 4,000 votes total) and five much smaller booths reporting for Manly (416 votes).

• Frenchs Forest – YNB’s third candidate has taken the lead – 3.01 quotas to 0.99. But the Greens have been doing better than necessary on the check count, putting them just in front. No preferences will be a factor here, so whichever group gets over the final quota wins the final seat.
• Manly – Greens lead with 0.65, YNB has 0.49, Labor has 0.43 and Good For Manly also has 0.43. Preferences will be decisive here but it’s hard to pick it. I suspect Greens will win.

Parramatta – LIB 6, ALP 5, GRN 1, CC 1, Undecided 2
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The North Rocks ward has been decided. As of Thursday, I’m also calling Dundas ward and Parramatta ward.

In the other two wards, we have all election day booths, pre-poll booths and some postal votes.

• Dundas – Community Champions is on 0.86, Our Local Community is on 0.65, Liberal on 0.36, Labor on 0.13. Once you factor in the below-the-line trends, CC climbs to 0.9 quotas, which gives Darley a lead of 0.25 quotas with 0.45 quota of preferences, which is too much to close.
• Epping – Lorraine Wearne Independents is on 0.64, Greens on 0.57, Community Champions on 0.40 and Liberal on 0.34. While LWI is leading, the Greens should do better on preferences from CC and I think are the favourite.
• Parramatta – Greens lead on 0.71, OLC on 0.47, Liberal on 0.35, Labor on 0.32. The Greens lead increases slightly after factoring in below-the-line rates, and that gap cannot be closed.
• Rosehill – ALP lead on 0.69, CC on 0.35, OLC on 0.34, Liberal on 0.29, Noack on 0.24. Labor should probably win this seat.

Penrith – ALP 8, LIB 2, IND 2, LBT 1, Undecided 2
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The East Ward was uncontested, electing five ALP members.

In the remaining wards, we have all election day booths and all pre-poll, plus some postal votes. We now also have a decent number of booths reporting below-the-line figures. In both cases, the incumbent independent gains a big boost out of below-the-line votes.

• North Ward – The ALP and Liberal Party have each won two seats. Gardiner is leading for the final seat with 0.62 quotas, with the Greens on 0.52, Cardwell on 0.46, Liberal on 0.38 and Labor on 0.03. Once you factor in below-the-line trends, Gardiner increases to 0.67 with the Greens on 0.5 and Cardwell on 0.49. Not quite enough to call but Gardiner looking strong.
• South Ward – The vote here is almost perfectly split three ways, ranging from 31.35% to 34.77%. So the ALP, Sue Day and the Libertarian Party have each won two seats. For the final seat, the ALP is leading on 1.06 quotas, Sue Day’s second candidate Faithe Skinner on 0.97, and the Libertarian on 0.96 quotas. But the below-the-line votes very strongly favour Day, such that her group is on 2.13 quotas to Labor’s 0.98 and the Libertarian on 0.90. With that in mind, I’m calling the fourth seat for the Day group, with Labor and Libertarian still competing for the final seat.

Randwick – ALP 6, LIB 5, GRN 3, IND 1
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The East, North, South and West wards have been decided. I am now calling the final seat in the Central ward for the ALP, finishing this council.

• Central Ward – Labor’s #2 candidate leads with 0.83 quotas, with the Greens on 0.68 and Liberal on 0.49. Below-the-line votes are good for the Greens, but also good for Labor, and bring Labor closer to a quota. After factoring in BTL trends, my prediction is ALP 0.86, Greens 0.72 and Liberal 0.43. The Greens will do poorly on Liberal preferences considering the local political context. The local Greens councillor here was the first ever Green to win this ward in 2021 and has increased her vote, but Labor’s vote has increased in the absence of an independent and her window of success has closed.

Ryde – LIB 7, ALP 3, IND 1, Undecided 2
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The mayoralty and the East Ward has been decided.

In the other wards, all election day booths and most pre-poll has been counted, along with some postal votes.

• Central Ward – Greens lead for the final seat on 0.78 quotas, with Rizk on 0.64, Labor on 0.42 and Liberal on 0.16. The Greens are likely winners here.
• West Ward – The third Liberal candidate leads on 0.56 quotas, with Alden on 0.48, Labor on 0.41, Kim on 0.35 and Unity on 0.19. The race is hard to pick.

Shoalhaven – SIG 7, ALP 3, Team Tribe 3
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The mayoralty and wards 2 and 3 have been decided. I’m now ready to call ward 1.

• Ward 1 – The Shoalhaven Independents Group won two clear quotas, Team Tribe’s Selena Clancy is on 1.01 and Labor is on 0.97. The Greens are well back on 0.69 so can’t win.

Sutherland – LIB 6, ALP 5, Undecided 4
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

Wards B and D have been decided.

In Wards A, C and E, all election day and pre-poll booths have reported, plus a substantial batch of postal votes. We now have some below-the-line votes for wards A and C, which are very favourable to the independents and bad for the major parties.

If the Liberal Party win two of the undecided races where they are leading, that will give them a majority.

• Ward A – Two seats left to decide. Glanznig is leading on 0.77 quotas, with ALP on 0.59, Provan on 0.58, Liberal on 0.45 and Farmer on 0.38. The check count has reported nine booths and Glanznig is performing extremely well on the below the line votes. Over 6% of all votes are below-the-line votes for Glanznig. I’m not sure I believe that this is accurate and there hasn’t been a data error, but if you believe it, the prediction is Glanznig 0.95, Provan 0.63, Labor 0.52, Farmer 0.42, Liberal 0.27. If this proves to be true, Glanznig will clearly win the second seat and Provan will have an edge on Labor for the third seat.
• Ward C – Liberal leads with 0.76, followed by Carmelo Pesce with 0.68, Labor and Libertarian with 0.28 each. The below-the-line votes strongly favour Pesce, which leads to a projection of Pesce 0.74 and Liberal 0.68. Still undecided, but an important boost for Pesce.
• Ward E – Liberal leads with 0.93, with Cowell on 0.81 and Labor on 0.26. Cowell would need a very strong Labor preference flow to win, but if her vote picks up she’ll be the favourite.

Sydney – Moore Team 4, ALP 2, GRN 1, LIB 1, Yvonne Weldon 1, Undecided 1
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The lord mayoralty has been decided, along with eight out of nine council seats.

In the council count, we have results from all election day and pre-poll booths and a substantial share of the postal votes. We also have the check count from all election day booths and same pre-poll booths.

The Greens are leading with 0.64 quotas for the final seat, followed by the Liberals on 0.44, Libertarian on 0.40, Danieli on 0.26, and Moore’s fourth candidate on 0.22. The Greens are the favourite, but they are not a long way clear of the Liberal or Libertarian candidates.

When you factor in below-the-line trends, the Greens are projected for just 0.61 quotas, with the Liberal and Libertarian candidates both on 0.42, Danieli on 0.28 and Moore’s fourth candidate on 0.18 quotas.

The Hills – LIB 9, ALP 3, Undecided 1
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The mayoralty and the Central and West wards have been decided. I am now ready to call the third seat in the East ward for the ALP, thanks to a strong performance on the below-the-line vote.

In all wards, all election day and pre-poll booths have reported along with a share of the postal votes. In the East, quite a few booths have reported the check count, but there is much less data for the North.

• East Ward – Labor is leading with 0.90 quotas, with the Greens on 0.81 and Liberal on 0.29 on the initial count. After adjusting for performance below the line, Labor grows to 0.94 and the Greens stay on 0.81, with the Liberal on 0.25. The Greens can’t close that gap.
• North Ward – Labor is leading with 0.72 quotas, with the Greens on 0.70 and the Liberal on 0.58. Very close race.

Tweed – LIB 2, ALP 1, GRN 1, IND 2, Undecided 1
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

Six out of seven council seats have been decided.

In the council count, we have all election day booths plus some pre-poll booths.

Independent councillor Chris Cherry has been re-elected, and Kimberly Hone has successfully replaced Warren Polglase as a conservative independent.

For the final race, incumbent independent Meredith Dennis leads with 0.56 quotas, with Liberal 0.39, Turner on 0.35, Usher on 0.32, and Labor on 0.21. Dennis is the favourite.

If Dennis wins, that will maintain a 4-3 progressive majority on council, but a Liberal win would change the shape of the council.

Wollongong – ALP 8, GRN 3, IND 1, Undecided 1
Updated Thurs 19 September evening

The lord mayoralty and wards 2 and 3 have been decided.

In Ward 1, we have all but one election day booth plus the small Berkeley pre-poll booth.

For the final seat, independent Ryan Morris is leading with 0.86 quotas, with the second Green on 0.62, Labor on 0.35, de Vive 0.16. Morris is leading with the Greens having fallen further back.

Another thing to consider is that the “others” votes, none of which have been counted yet, won’t include many votes for Morris or de Vive. Any below-the-line votes for Morris or de Vive were counted in the initial count, unlike BTL votes for the Greens or Labor.

If three quarters of the “others” votes are formal, and they split between Labor and Greens in proportion to their share of the above-the-line vote, it would leave Morris on 0.72 quotas and the Greens just behind on 0.69, with 0.45 quotas sitting with Labor. This would be very winnable for the Greens.