Podcast #29: Redistribution update


I’m joined by William Bowe from Poll Bludger to run through all of the electoral redistributions which have been conducted while we’ve all been thinking about other things this year: specifically Western Australia, the ACT, the Northern Territory, Brisbane City Council and the likely change in federal seat numbers in 2020.

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  1. On the ACT – the it’s time factor is lurking there but will be hard for the Liberal Party to harness – given the perception that they are vey conservative – there has been a failed attempt at a leadership change that has been squashed over the weekend. The ALP has just dodged a bullet there. The other factor weighing against it is the fact the the LNP is in power federally & their proximity provides a regular reminder to Canberra of what it voted against federally. On the specific seats redistribution plus the retirement of the sitting Green member in Murrumbidgee gives the Liberals their best chance of a seat. The redistribution has weakened the position of their second member in Kurrajong – any swing against them there to Greens or the ALP – Greens did particularly well in this ares in the Federal election would place that seat at a slight risk. hard to see a seat switching in Yerrabi – the light rail is operating up there now. Ginninderra raises the prospect of the famous Ginninderra effect again – a drop in the ALP vote could send the final seat to the Greens at the expense of the ALP.

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