10:57pm – There won’t be anymore to contribute here tonight. Please head over to the Guardian liveblog if you want to read more of my thoughts. I’ll be back tomorrow with a Guardian piece, and will put something together for this website too.
9:46pm – I now think Maryborough is going to Labor, which gives them 44. Maiwar will go to Labor or the Greens, so that’s 45 votes. They then need two more seats from:
- Five conventional Labor vs LNP close races.
- Two Labor vs One Nation seats with no preference count.
- Thuringowa, where Labor will win if One Nation comes second. If the LNP comes second, we don’t have a preference count.
- Rockhampton, where we don’t have a preference count between Labor and the ex-Labor independent Margaret Strelow
- Cook, where we don’t have a preference count between Labor and Katter’s Australian Party or One Nation, either of whom could come in the top two
9:14pm – You might be interested in this summary at the Guardian liveblog:
I’ve gone quiet as I’ve been trying to get a grasp of the landscape.
By my count Labor holds 43 seats, the LNP holds 34 and Katter’s Australian Paty holds 2. This leave 14 more seats still in place.
There are four more seats where Labor is currently leading on the primary vote ahead of the LNP (Bonney, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Pumicestone).
There is another seat where Labor is leading against One Nation(Maryborough), and there are six seats where we either don’t know who has made the top two, or don’t have a correct preference count (Logan, Mirani, Maryborough, Maiwar, Cook, Rockhampton). Labor is also trailing the LNP in Burleigh.
That’s twelve seats where Labor has a chance of winning, including five where they are leading. If Labor wins four of those seats, they should win a majority.
The other two seats in play are Noosa (LNP vs Independent) and Hinchinbrook (LNP vs Katter’s Australian Party or One Nation).
7:56pm – The story of this election is “we don’t know who is in the top two” – the latest example of this is in Cook. Labor is leading with 35% of the primary vote, while Katter’s Australian Party, the LNP and One Nation are clustered around 18-20%. Labor looks good against the LNP, but who knows whether KAP would do better.
7:37pm – It’s probably time to change our expectations about where the Greens have their best chance of winning seats. It’s not in places with a low Liberal vote where they can go head-to-head with Labor (ala federal Melbourne). Labor has gained a boost thanks to Liberal preferences, so the Greens now need a primary vote lead to win those seats. Maiwar could well become the fourth case of the Greens winning a seat in a race against a Liberal or National, thanks to Labor preferences. Labor currently leads the Greens by 70 votes. Watch that space.
7:28pm – I’ve made a bunch of posts at the Guardian liveblog. A quick summary of the picture – One Nation doing very well but not clearly winning many seats, Labor appears to be gaining ground in south-eastern marginal seats, and the Greens are doing quite well in the inner city.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed across Queensland. I will be joining the Guardian’s liveblog so don’t expect too many updates here, but I will post a few quick updates. Please use this thread for discussion of tonight’s results.