10:57pm – There won’t be anymore to contribute here tonight. Please head over to the Guardian liveblog if you want to read more of my thoughts. I’ll be back tomorrow with a Guardian piece, and will put something together for this website too.
9:46pm – I now think Maryborough is going to Labor, which gives them 44. Maiwar will go to Labor or the Greens, so that’s 45 votes. They then need two more seats from:
- Five conventional Labor vs LNP close races.
- Two Labor vs One Nation seats with no preference count.
- Thuringowa, where Labor will win if One Nation comes second. If the LNP comes second, we don’t have a preference count.
- Rockhampton, where we don’t have a preference count between Labor and the ex-Labor independent Margaret Strelow
- Cook, where we don’t have a preference count between Labor and Katter’s Australian Party or One Nation, either of whom could come in the top two
9:14pm – You might be interested in this summary at the Guardian liveblog:
I’ve gone quiet as I’ve been trying to get a grasp of the landscape.
By my count Labor holds 43 seats, the LNP holds 34 and Katter’s Australian Paty holds 2. This leave 14 more seats still in place.
There are four more seats where Labor is currently leading on the primary vote ahead of the LNP (Bonney, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Pumicestone).
There is another seat where Labor is leading against One Nation(Maryborough), and there are six seats where we either don’t know who has made the top two, or don’t have a correct preference count (Logan, Mirani, Maryborough, Maiwar, Cook, Rockhampton). Labor is also trailing the LNP in Burleigh.
That’s twelve seats where Labor has a chance of winning, including five where they are leading. If Labor wins four of those seats, they should win a majority.
The other two seats in play are Noosa (LNP vs Independent) and Hinchinbrook (LNP vs Katter’s Australian Party or One Nation).
7:56pm – The story of this election is “we don’t know who is in the top two” – the latest example of this is in Cook. Labor is leading with 35% of the primary vote, while Katter’s Australian Party, the LNP and One Nation are clustered around 18-20%. Labor looks good against the LNP, but who knows whether KAP would do better.
7:37pm – It’s probably time to change our expectations about where the Greens have their best chance of winning seats. It’s not in places with a low Liberal vote where they can go head-to-head with Labor (ala federal Melbourne). Labor has gained a boost thanks to Liberal preferences, so the Greens now need a primary vote lead to win those seats. Maiwar could well become the fourth case of the Greens winning a seat in a race against a Liberal or National, thanks to Labor preferences. Labor currently leads the Greens by 70 votes. Watch that space.
7:28pm – I’ve made a bunch of posts at the Guardian liveblog. A quick summary of the picture – One Nation doing very well but not clearly winning many seats, Labor appears to be gaining ground in south-eastern marginal seats, and the Greens are doing quite well in the inner city.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed across Queensland. I will be joining the Guardian’s liveblog so don’t expect too many updates here, but I will post a few quick updates. Please use this thread for discussion of tonight’s results.
Are pre-polls going to be counted tonight??
Some of these predictions are far too presumptuous from the Sky News panel.
Have only been watching the ABC coverage, and at 8.30pm the results (half counted) seem to be 44 to ALP, 36 to LNP, Zero to One Nation (but 1 possible still in contention) and 2 to Katter !
Burdekin is another seat where we have no idea what is going on. LNP, Labor, and ON all within 1% of the primary vote.
Apparently Independents have won in Rockhampton (ALP) and Noosa (LNP), with Hetty Johnson making a strong play against Labor in MacCalister.
This election is a real mess to sort out.
” Maiwar could well become the fourth case of the Greens winning a seat in a race against a Liberal or National, thanks to Labor preferences.”
Prahran, Ballina, Maiwar and………???? (the last one escapes me)
Seats in doubt:
Gaven-I think that’s a Labor win
Hinchinbrook-the experts seem to be calling this as an LNP win, but that’s based on the presumption Labor voters preferences the LNP over Katter. Katter or One Nation could still win this potentially.
MacAlister-Labor will win if LNP stay in second place, if independent Hetty Johnson leapfrogs the LNP then perhaps the independent gets up
Maiwar-it’s Labor v Greens here, Greens marginally in front at the moment
Maryborough-I think you can call it for Labor
Mirani-the LNP preferenced ON over Labor here, so I think ON get this easily
Mundingburra-if the KAP push ON past the LNP then ON are favourites, if LNP stay in second it’s a toss up between Labor and the LNP
Noosa-Looks like the independent candidate Sandra Bolton gets in comfortably
Pumicestone-I think you can call this for Labor, enough of ON’s preferences will leak in their direction to get them over
Rockhampton-It’s between Labor and the independent candidate by the looks, the independent was a former Labor candidate so I’m presuming she would preference Labor over ON
South Brisbane-Labor get it on LNP preferences
Thuringowa-KAP preferences will push ON into second place, and the LNP have preferenced Labor over ON in this seat so I think you can call this a Labor win.
@Mark – Balmain, 2011.
Cook seems to be between One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party.
Burdekin is still a chance for One Nation as LNP, ON and Labor are all very close in vote with plenty of vote counting still to come, if the LNP falls to third then things will look great for One Nation there.
Based on how things lie so far, I think we’re looking at:
Labor 48
LNP 38
KAP 3 (Traegar, Hill, Hinchinbrook)
ON 2 (Mirani, Cook)
Independent 2 (Noosa, Rockhampton)
Rockhampton is not so certain for the independent because the LNP put One Nation above the independent and so if one nation goes into second place the seat becomes a lot closer. Mundingburra is also not quite finished yet for one nation.
Yeah, I think the independent is going to get bumped into third and then she will hand Labor to victory, so on reflection I’d say as things sit we’re talking 49 currently.
There are a number of scenarios still in play with a couple of seats that could change things too. Like Burdekin, it’s neck and neck between the LNP, Labor and ON. If the LNP were to slip to third place then ON probably picks it up.
You’re right about Mundingburra too, for ON to get there though they will need minimal leakage from KAP. If the KAP can get ON into second place then they probably get that too.
Independent Hetty Johnston is still in with a shot too in the seat of MacAlister. If preferences can get her past the LNP (she is about 200 votes behind second place currently) then she probably picks it up.
Add Townsville to in doubt seats. First lot of postals bought the two party prefered to a gap if 61 votes.
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