I didn’t get a chance to do an update yesterday morning as I headed over to Moorebank to observe the NSW Senate count – I’ll come back to that topic soon with a post on the Senate race.
I’m calling Gilmore for the Coalition, as I flagged on Friday morning.
I’m also pulling Cowan back into the “very close” category from being “leaning ALP” thanks to a very poor batch of absent votes which has cut back on the Labor margin and put the Liberal Party in front in the projection.
Since I last updated, the LNP took the lead in Capricornia and Flynn, as expected. The projected lead in Capricornia has widened, but it has actually narrowed in Flynn.
My current numbers are:
- 73 Coalition
- 66 Labor
- 5 others
- 6 tight
If you take the projections at their current word, Labor would win Hindmarsh and lose the five other tight seats, although I suspect the model is overemphasising the Liberal vote in Cowan. Unless we see a major shift back to Labor on absent and pre-poll votes, it seems like we are heading for a Liberal majority government.
With Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan agreeing to give confidence and supply to the government, they are guaranteed of minority government. Probabilistically they are very likely to win their three remaining seats from the five outstanding seats.
Just a reminder that the first four columns of data in this spreadsheet represent the AEC’s official data on how many votes are left to be processed in each category (bearing in mind that pre-poll and absent numbers are expected to grow).
|Seat||Absent||Provisional||Pre-poll||Postal||Current Labor lead||Projected Labor lead|
Labor has slipped behind the LNP in Capricornia in the last two days, and the projected LNP lead has grown. We’ve also started to see absent votes counted in Capricornia, and like in 2013 these votes are favouring the LNP slightly.
The first batch of absent votes in Cowan was very poor for Labor, which cut down on the Labor lead, and put the Liberal Party on track to win. It seems unlikely that the remaining absent votes will break in the same way, and if we see more you’d expect Labor to recover ground in the projection.
After a long decline, Labor has fallen behind the LNP in Flynn, and I expect the LNP to probably retain the seat. The projected LNP margin has actually dropped a bit since Friday morning.
The LNP lead in Forde has grown from 687 to 915, and the projected final lead has also grown slightly.
I’m calling Gilmore as the 73rd Coalition seat. The Liberal lead has only grown by 144 votes, but the projected lead has also grown, and they look clearly on track to win.
The Labor lead in Herbert has dropped from 449 to 302. I am projecting a Liberal win, but their projected lead has also dropped from 459 to 300. I can still envision a Labor win if they pick up in the remaining postal and pre-poll votes.
Labor has substantially recovered ground here since Friday – the Labor lead has grown from 68 to 247, and the projected Labor lead has substantially grown.